地理科学进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (11): 1340-1348.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.11.003

• 一带一路专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

“一带一路”贸易网络与全球贸易网络的拓扑关系

宋周莺1,2,3(), 车姝韵1,2,3, 杨宇1,2,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    3. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
  • 出版日期:2017-12-07 发布日期:2017-12-07
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:宋周莺(1983-),女,浙江缙云人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为经济地理和区域发展,E-mail: songzy@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41530751);国家社会科学基金项目(17VDL008,2015MZD039)

Topological relationship between trade network in the Belt and Road Initiative area and global trade network

Zhouying SONG1,2,3(), Shuyun CHE1,2,3, Yu YANG1,2,3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Online:2017-12-07 Published:2017-12-07
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530751;National Social Science Foundation of China, No.17VDL008, No.2015MZD039

摘要:

共建“一带一路”倡议致力于建设开放型经济、确保自由包容性贸易。本文基于社区发现法、拓扑网络可视化等方法,对比分析“一带一路”贸易网络与全球贸易网络的拓扑关系,明确其贸易在全球的地位,以期为“一带一路”自由包容性贸易体系建设提供科学支撑。研究发现:①全球贸易网络可以识别出5个组团,其核心节点分别是中国、美国、德—荷—法—英等欧洲发达国家、俄罗斯、印度—阿联酋。②“一带一路”沿线可以识别出3个主组团及2个次组团,其中,亚欧大组团以中国为核心、俄罗斯为次核心,南亚—西亚组团以印度、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯为核心。③在全球贸易网络中,大部分沿线国家仍被中国、俄罗斯、印度—阿联酋等核心节点所吸引,且与“一带一路”沿线的贸易联系较强;中东欧国家主要被德—荷—法—英等西欧国家核心节点所吸引,是“一带一路”低渗透国家;部分东南亚国家虽然被吸纳到以中国为核心的亚澳—南非组团,但与“一带一路”贸易联系还需加强。

关键词: 一带一路, 全球, 贸易网络, 贸易组团, 拓扑关系

Abstract:

Unimpeded trade is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation reaffirmed the participants' shared commitment to build an open economy and ensure free and inclusive trade. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is not only China's new action to drive its open and global development, but also a platform for increasingly more countries to explore free and inclusive trade. It is therefore important to examine the topological relationship between BRI trade network and global trade network, for promoting a universal, rule-based, open, nondiscriminatory, and equitable multilateral trading system. Based on a literature review, this article first analyzes community structure and trade network based on community detection algorithm, and then estimates the topological relationship of different trade communities. The findings of this article are as follows. First, we identified five trade communities in global trade network through community detection algorithm, in which China, USA, Russia, India-UAE, and Germany-the Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries are the cores of the five trade communities, respectively. Second, we identified three trade communities and two sub-communities in the BRI trade network, in which China is the core, Russia is the sub-core of the biggest trade community, and India, UAE, and Saudi Arabia are cores of the second trade community (South Asia-West Asia). Third, the topological analysis results indicate that in the global trade network, most BRI countries are attracted by the core nodes in the BRI area, such as China, Russia, India-UAE core nodes, and have strong trade contact with BRI countries. Most Central-East European countries are mainly attracted by Germany-the Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries with low penetration of BRI trade. Although some Southeast Asian countries are incorporated into the Asia-Australia-South Africa community with China as the core, they still need to strengthen trade linkages with BRI countries.

Key words: the Belt and Road Initiative, global, trade network, trade community, topological relationship