中国省域离婚率的空间异质性分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.10.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

婚姻是人口再生产必要的社会关系,维系着社会的安定和谐,而离婚的空间特征是社会地理学关注的重要问题,本文以2005-2014年间中国大陆31个省(市、区)离婚率变化为数据源,结合传统数理分析和空间计量分析方法探究其空间依赖性与空间异质性特征。结果表明：①2005-2014年间地区间离婚差异不断缩小,离婚水平空间分布呈现出北高南低的分异态势;②地区间离婚显著的空间溢出效应是由地理邻近和网络社会空间共同作用的结果,而地区间离婚现象的高低分异与特定地理的社会经济及文化等因素有关;③城市化水平、经济发展水平、受教育程度、互联网普及率的提高及家庭规模的增加对离婚起到显著的影响;失业率的增加及城乡收入的加大对离婚起到正向影响,但不显著;全球化、性别比的增加、家庭负担对离婚的影响为负,但未通过显著性检验。

关键词: 离婚率, 空间格局, 影响因素, 空间异质性, 中国

Abstract:

Marriage is an important social relation in the reproduction of population and it functions as maintaining social stability and harmony. Hence, the spatial pattern of regional divorce rates is an important topic in human geography. Taking 31 provincial-level administrative units as the research object and combining traditional statistical techniques and spatial econometric models, this article focuses on analyzing spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity of China's regional divorce rates between 2005 and 2014 and identifies the potential driving factors of regional divorce rates. The conclusions are as follows. (1) The regional inequality of divorce rates gradually decreased from 2005 to 2014, and there was a clear spatial differentiation with high divorce rates in northern China and low divorce rates in the southern region. (2) The spatial pattern of the divorce rates showed some spatial dependence or spatial spillover effect, which was influenced by both geographic proximity and the Cybersociety. The heterogeneous spatial differentiation of divorce rates was to some degree related to specific regional contexts such as economic development, culture, and population structure. (3) Spatial panel data regression reveals that urbanization rate, economic development, education attainment, popularity of the Internet, and family size all had significantly positive impact on divorce rate. Unemployment rate and the widening urban and rural income gap had insignificantly positive effect on divorce rate. Globalization, the increase of male to female sex ratio, and burden of family support were negative related to divorce rate, but not significant statistically.

Key words: divorce rate, spatial pattern, influencing factors, saptial heterogenity, China

李在军, 刘帅宾, 马志飞, 宋伟轩. 中国省域离婚率的空间异质性分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(10): 1313-1320.

Zaijun LI, Shuaibin LIU, Zhifei MA, Weixuan SONG. Saptial heterogeneity analysis of divorce rate at the provincial level in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(10): 1313-1320.

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变量	观测值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
离婚率(y)	310	0.24	0.10	0.07	0.49
城市化(x1)	310	50.34	13.99	25.75	89.60
人均国内生产总值(x2)	310	32230.28	20412.02	995.88	105231
人均外商投资额(x3)	310	2469.14	4203.86	42.89	20693.56
受教育程度(x4)	310	23.92	9.83	3.01	61.66
平均家庭规模(x5)	310	3.16	0.41	2.33	5.03
性别比(x6)	310	104.05	3.67	94.65	118.62
家庭负担系数(x7)	310	36.41	6.85	21.18	57.58
城镇登记失业率(x8)	310	3.59	0.64	1.20	5.60
城乡收入比(x9)	310	3.13	1.99	1.81	26.93
互联网普及率(x10)	310	29.98	17.21	2.92	74.02

变量	普通面板		空间滞后面板		空间误差面板
变量	估计值	t值	估计值	t值	估计值	t值
x1	-0.0318	-0.171	0.1419^***	1.489	0.1312	1.384
x2	0.0997	1.605	0.0438^*	2.014	0.0445^*	2.127
x3	-0.1431^***	-5.004	-0.0094	-0.394	-0.0127	-0.533
x4	0.2530^**	3.066	0.1970^**	3.097	0.2098^***	3.324
x5	-2.4832^***	-8.177	0.7763^***	4.129	0.7331^***	3.838
x6	-1.0410^'	-1.898	-0.1519	-0.670	-0.0154	-0.070
x7	0.3432^*	2.256	-0.0498	-0.492	-0.0344	-0.344
x8	-0.3663^***	-3.866	0.0179	0.578	0.0195	0.664
x9	-0.0604	-0.775	0.0092	0.361	0.0068	0.273
x10	0.2117^***	4.413	0.1080^*	2.972	0.1377^***	3.674
λ			0.3031^***	4.498
ρ					0.3366^***	4.939
R²	0.6029		0.7653		0.6239
logL	194.824		260.764		244.711