1981-2010年气候变化和人类活动对内蒙古地区植被动态影响的定量研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.08.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于GIMMS NDVI以及MODIS NDVI数据,分析内蒙古地区1981-2010年的植被变化趋势,并结合气候、社会经济数据,以旗县为单位定量分析气候变化和人类活动对植被变化的影响,结果表明：①1981-2010年间,内蒙古地区植被变化具有典型的空间异质性,其中植被显著增加区域主要集中在西南部的阿拉善盟、鄂尔多斯市以及东部通辽市等地区,显著减少区域主要集中在北部的锡林郭勒盟以及东北部的呼伦贝尔市的部分地区;②对于植被显著增加区域,人类活动作用的影响面积最大,其次为气候因素,气候与人类活动的耦合作用也对植被增加有一定显著影响;内蒙古西部降雨量的增加、围封禁牧政策的实施以及农作物播种面积的增加为驱动植被增加的主要因素;③对于植被显著减少区域,人类活动的作用略大于气候因素;内蒙古中东部地区降雨减少以及近10年来部分旗县风速的增加是导致植被显著减少的重要气候因素;虽然人工造林、农作物播种面积会增加局部植被盖度,但在县域尺度不足以抵消干旱对植被生长的不利影响,反而会导致区域植被退化。

关键词: 植被变化, 气候因素, 人类活动, 多元回归, 内蒙古

Abstract:

This study constructed growing season NDVI in 1981-2010 based on GIMMS NDVI and MODIS NDVI data in Inner Mongolia. The characteristics of NDVI change were analyzed and natural and human influencing factors were investigated in each county (banner) by trend analysis and multiple regression analysis. The results indicate that NDVI changes in Inner Mongolia showed great heterogeneity. The regions that experienced significantly increased vegetation cover were mainly distributed in Erdos City and Alashan Prefecture in southwestern and Tongliao City in eastern Inner Mongolia, and the regions that experienced significantly decreased vegetation cover were in HulunBuir and Xilinguole Prefectures in northern Inner Mongolia. For the increased vegetation cover regions, human activities were the dominant factor, and climate change played the second role; the coupling of climate change and human activities also had certain impact on the vegetation increase. The increase of the rainfall, implementation of banned grazing policies and increase of cropping area were the main factors driving the increase of vegetation. However, for the decreased vegetation cover regions, the role of human activities was slightly greater than that of climate change. The reduction of rainfall in the central and eastern Inner Mongolia and the raise of wind speed in some counties in nearly 10 years were the main climatic factors driving the significant decrease of vegetation. Although afforestation and the increase of cropping area might lead to the increase of vegetation cover at local scale, it was not enough to counteract the adverse effects of drought on vegetation growth at county scale; nevertheless, it might lead to regional vegetation degradation.

Key words: vegetation change, climatic factor, human activity, multiple regression analysis, Inner Mongolia

王子玉, 许端阳, 杨华, 丁雪, 李达净. 1981-2010年气候变化和人类活动对内蒙古地区植被动态影响的定量研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(8): 1025-1032.

Ziyu WANG, Duanyang XU, Hua YANG, Xue DING, Dajing LI. Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics in Inner Mongolia, 1981-2010[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(8): 1025-1032.

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