基于CA-ABM模型的福州城市用地扩张研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.05.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以中国海西地区重要门户福州市为研究区,结合其地理位置多层次约束性条件,以地理加权回归模型作为元胞自动机(CA)层的转换规则,同时以2000-2015年多期LandsatTM/ETM+影像的城市用地情况为参照,借助GIS空间分析技术,对CA和多智能体(ABM)相耦合的城市用地扩张模型进行改进。然后利用传统的和改进后的CA-ABM模型,多角度、多层次地模拟福州市2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年城市用地扩张在微观格局上的变化。结果表明,传统的和改进后的CA-ABM模型的整体精度均在80%以上,模拟结果具有较强的可信度;改进的 CA-ABM模型模拟的点对点总体精度和Kappa系数均高于传统的CA-ABM模型,而且模拟结果更加接近实际的城市用地扩张分布情况。结论可为平衡城市化进程和合理规划城市用地提供重要的理论技术支撑。

关键词: 城市用地扩张, 元胞自动机, 多智能体, 元胞自动机—多智能体模型, 福州市

Abstract:

Fuzhou City is an important gateway west of the South China Sea. This study uses geographically weighted regression (GWR) as the transformation rules of cellular automata (CA) layer based on the multi-level constraint conditions, taking into account geographical location, natural factors, and the multi-criteria and willingness of various agents to make decisions on environmental change, to simulate urban land expansion of Fuzhou City from 2000 to 2015. Using the urban land use data derived from remote sensing imageries of Fuzhou City in 2000-2015 as a reference, and with the help of GIS spatial analysis technology, this study developed an improved model of urban land expansion based on coupled CA and ABM. The traditional and improved CA-ABM models were used to simulate urban land expansion and change with a microscopic view for Fuzhou City in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 from multiple angles and at multiple levels. The results show that the overall accuracy of the traditional and improved CA-ABM models was higher than 80%, and the simulation results based on the CA-ABM models for Fuzhou City are reliable. The point-to-point overall accuracy and Kappa of the improved CA-ABM model were higher than the traditional CA-ABM model, and the results of the improved CA-ABM model were closer to the actual distribution of urban land expansion in Fuzhou. It indicates that the improved CA-ABM model can be used to simulate urban land expansion, more accurately expresses a variety of geographic processes and mechanisms, and improves the reliability and stability of the simulation results. Finally, a forecast of the distribution of urban land expansion in 2020 and 2030 based on the improved CA-ABM model with scenario natural, economic, and social developments in Fuzhou provides an important theoretical and technical support for the urban land use planning of the city.

Key words: urban expansion, cellular automata (CA), agent-based model (ABM), CA-ABM model, Fuzhou

陈宝芬, 张耀民, 江东. 基于CA-ABM模型的福州城市用地扩张研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(5): 626-634.

Baofen CHEN, Yaomin ZHANG, Dong JIANG. Urban land expansion in Fuzhou City based on coupled cellular automata and agent-based models (CA-ABM)[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(5): 626-634.

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环境层类型	数据
交通通达层	到高速公路、一般公路的距离
社会状况层	到教育资源、医疗卫生资源、休闲服务距离
经济发展层	地价、房价、到生活品市场的距离
自然条件层	高程、坡度
城市用地层	2000、2005、2010、2015年城市用地数据

	传统CA-ABM模型		改进CA-ABM模型
	Kappa/%	总精度/%	Kappa/%	总精度/%
2000年	85.12	91.67	98.65	96.26
2005年	84.03	91.62	93.44	96.84
2010年	87.68	89.79	95.87	97.19
2015年	85.61	87.53	92.03	97.93