海洋资源环境承载能力超载阈值确定方法探讨

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.03.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

超载阈值是资源环境承载能力监测预警体系构建中的关键因子,其确定是当前资源环境承载能力评价方法研究中的重点和难点问题。本文首先分析了资源环境承载能力超载阈值的定义和内涵,结合国内外研究进展和国家发改委下发的《资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法(试行)》,分析目前海洋资源环境承载能力评价采用的超载阈值确定方法及潜在的问题。试行方法主要是从海洋功能区划及环境质量标准的合规性,以及指标多年变化情况确定超载阈值,对资源环境保护与社会经济发展的关系协调考虑较少,评价方法的创新性以及评价结果的管理效能还较弱。本文还从海洋资源环境对于社会经济发展的限制性分析视角,探索构建区域差异性指标体系和更具科学性及管理适用性的超载阈值确定新思路。

关键词: 承载能力, 阈值, 海洋资源环境, 限制性分析, 差异性指标体系

Abstract:

In the construction of resource and environmental carrying capacity monitoring and early-warning system, overloading thresholds are key factors, and their determination is an important but difficult topic in the current research of evaluation methods. This article focuses on the analysis of existing overloading threshold determination methods and associated problems according to relevant research in China and internationally, as well as the "Technical Manual of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early-Warning (Trial)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China. One conclusion of this study is that the trial technical manual is based on the compliance with marine functional zoning and environmental quality standards, as well as the trend of change to determine the overloading thresholds. The relationship between resource and environmental protection and socioeconomic development has not been fully considered. So the innovativeness of the method and the management implication of the evaluation results are still weak. This article explores the construction of a regional differentiated and more scientific and applicable method to determine the overloading threshold, from the perspective of restrictive effect of marine resources and environment on socioeconomic development.

Key words: carrying capacity, thresholds, marine resources and environment, restrictive effective analysis, differentiated index system

杨正先, 张志锋, 韩建波, 索安宁, 张振冬. 海洋资源环境承载能力超载阈值确定方法探讨[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(3): 313-319.

Zhengxian YANG, Zhifeng ZHANG, Jianbo HAN, Anning SUO, Zhendong ZHANG. Thresholds determination of marine resource and environmental carrying capacity[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(3): 313-319.

图/表 2

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基本要素	评价指标	阈值确定方法	说明
1. 海域空间资源	岸线开发强度	根据区划要求	以海洋功能区划为依据,确定岸线开发强度是否超载
1. 海域空间资源	海域开发强度	根据区划要求	以海洋功能区划为依据,确定空间开发强度是否超载
2. 海洋渔业资源	渔业资源综合承载指数	根据指标的变化趋势及幅度	根据渔业资源调查值的变化率确定是否超载
3. 海洋生态环境	海洋功能区水质达标率	根据环境质量标准和达标率	根据《海水水质标准》和海洋功能区达标率水平(80%)确定是否超载
3. 海洋生态环境	海洋生态承载指数	根据评价指标的变化趋势及幅度	根据浮游动物和大型底栖动物密度和生物量的变化率确定是否超载
4. 海岛资源环境	无居民海岛开发强度	根据专家意见	将无居民海岛实际开发规模和专家给定阈值比较,确定是否超载
4. 海岛资源环境	无居民海岛生态状况	根据指标的变化趋势与幅度	根据无居民海岛植被覆盖度的变化率确定是否超载