面向重建规划的灾后资源环境承载能力应急评价范式

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.03.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从国家重建规划对资源环境承载能力应急评价的应用需求出发,解析重大灾害事件发生后承载能力应急评价难点,初步构建在灾后资源赋存、环境容量、生态安全以及灾害风险多重约束下,资源环境承载能力应急评价的基本范式与技术流程,并提出未来灾后承载能力评价及研究重点。研究表明：针对评价周期短、涉及内容广、决策风险高、不确定性强、数据基础不足等特点与难点,需从地域功能预估与指标体系、单项要素评价与技术准则、综合集成评价与重建分区、人口容量测算与重建模式4个方面实施灾后应急评价。未来,建议从灾后资源环境承载能力评价关键阈值与参数研究,应急评价辅助支撑体系与规划衔接技术研究,灾后承载能力演化特征与弹性机理研究,青藏高原边缘地带及近邻山区等灾害高风险区的重点研究与超前应对,以及灾后应急评价及重建规划的工作协调与应用推广等方面,进一步深化灾后资源环境承载能力研究,提升未来应急评价快速化、规范化、精准化水平,为增强国家和地方政府灾后系统应对能力提供借鉴。

关键词: 资源环境承载能力, 重建规划, 应急评价, 自然灾害, 范式

Abstract:

Based on the application requirements of post-disaster resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluation for national reconstruction planning after the occurrence of major natural disasters, the main difficulties of emergent evaluation of post-disaster resource and environmental carrying capacity are analyzed, and the paradigm and technical process of such evaluation are preliminarily established under the multiple constraints of limited supply of resources, limited environmental capacity, protection of ecological security, and reduction of disaster risks. Moreover, the future prospects of post-disaster resource and environmental carrying capacity research and emergent evaluation are put forward. The results show that: In view of the limited time for performing such emergent evaluation, the broad range of factors to be considered in the evaluation, high decision risk, strong uncertainty, insufficient data base, and other challenges, emergent evaluation of carrying capacity should focus on the following four aspects: prediction of regional function and construction of index system, evaluation of individual factors and creation of technical criteria, integrated evaluation and reconstruction zoning, and estimation of population capacity and reconstruction model development. In the future, it is necessary to further deepen post-disaster carrying capacity research and emergent evaluation in the following areas: research on critical thresholds and parameters of emergent evaluation of post-disaster carrying capacity for reconstruction planning, design and research of auxiliary support system and planning convergence technology, research on the evolutionary characteristics and resilience of post-disaster carrying capacity, and research on high risk areas of natural disasters and countermeasures, especially in the periphery and surrounding mountainous areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, in order to improve the speed, standardization, and precision of post-disaster emergent evaluation, and provide some references for strengthening the national and local governments' post-disaster response capability.

Key words: resource and environmental carrying capacity, reconstruction planning, emergent evaluation, natural disasters, paradigm

周侃, 樊杰, 徐勇. 面向重建规划的灾后资源环境承载能力应急评价范式[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(3): 286-295.

Kan ZHOU, Jie FAN, Yong XU. Paradigm and prospects of emergent evaluation of post-disaster resource and environmental carrying capacity for reconstruction planning[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(3): 286-295.

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重建规划体系		应用需求
总体规划	灾后恢复重建总体规划	区域承载能力总体判断,重建功能分区,可承载人口总规模
专项规划	城镇体系专项规划	人口集聚区范围划定,可承载人口规模与职能等级
	土地利用专项规划	重建功能分区,土地整理与建设用地开发潜力
	城乡住房建设专项规划	适宜人口居住和城乡居民点建设范围,超载人口迁移与安置方式
	农村建设专项规划	农业生产区范围划定,农村超载人口规模,区域退耕还林规模
	基础设施专项规划	主要基础设施支撑能力,生命线通道布局与灾害避让建议
	公共服务设施专项规划	超载人口安置规模,公共服务设施配套规模与布局建议
	产业重建专项规划	产业发展导向,加剧区域承载能力超载的产业负面清单
	生态环境修复专项规划	生态建设区范围划定,退耕还林范围与规模
	防灾减灾专项规划	灾害防治区范围划定,地质灾害避让与防治工程措施

重建分区		开发强度	人口引导	产业导向	关键评价内容	评价精度
大类	亚类	开发强度	人口引导	产业导向	关键评价内容	评价精度
灾害避让区	断裂避让带	极低	逐渐清零	绿色开敞空间、使用率低的公共设施	地震断层和活动断层	全域评价,极重和重灾区的人口集聚区精细评价
	崩塌滑坡避让区				次生地质灾害类型的易发程度、发展变化趋势和影响范围
	泥石流避让区				次生地质灾害类型的易发程度、发展变化趋势和影响范围
生态建设区	自然保护区	低	略有减少	生态旅游	法定保护区	全域评价,结合旅游资源评价
	退耕还林区			林业和林下生态经济	25°以上坡耕地
	林地等			林业和林下生态经济	土地利用
农业生产区	农业	中	基本不变	生态农业	耕地、园地利用条件	全域评价
农业生产区	乡村居民点	中	基本不变	新农村	乡村建设用地条件	全域评价
人口集聚区	适度扩建	高	增加	特色加工业和行政中心功能、具有技术含量和加工深度的产业	水土条件、工程地质、产业支撑、人口分布、地理区位、基础设施	全域评价,人口集聚区精细评价,包括：用地条件加密评价、避灾加密现状遥感影像、灾损辅助分析
人口集聚区	就地重建	高	不变	基本服务功能	水土条件、工程地质、产业支撑、人口分布、地理区位、基础设施	全域评价,人口集聚区精细评价,包括：用地条件加密评价、避灾加密现状遥感影像、灾损辅助分析