资源环境承载能力预警的超载成因分析方法及应用

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.03.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

建立资源环境承载能力监测预警机制和对超载区域实行限制性措施是中央全面深化改革的一项重大任务,而超载成因分析既是资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法的重要组成内容,也是制定超载区域限制性政策的基础。本文在搭建超载成因分析总体框架、阐述关键因素识别和成因分析方法的基础上,梳理总结了陆域/海域基础和专项评价结果以及综合预警超载成因分析的要点,进而在京津冀地区进行了实证应用。研究结果表明,导致京津冀地区资源环境超载的因素涉及自然、发展和管理各个类别,但关键因素的作用程度及其组合叠加状况在基础评价结果、专项评价结果和综合预警超载成因方面存在较大差异;水资源严重短缺、地形和气象等自然条件是导致超载的基础原因;人口和产业过度集聚以及低端产业、能源消费结构等发展类因素是超载的首要原因;内海净化能力差和海域生态退化、海岸开发强度大综合导致了海域生态环境超载;现行的资源环境管理政策尚不具备有效遏制和解决资源环境超载的能力。既有的超载成因分析框架、方法及要点可供各省、市、自治区开展资源环境承载能力监测预警借鉴。

关键词: 资源环境承载力, 超载成因, 因素叠加分析法, 京津冀地区

Abstract:

Establishing the monitoring and early-warning mechanism for resource and environmental system overloading and implementing restrictive policies in overloaded areas is a vital task faced by the central government in China in the process of comprehensive and deepening reforms. Cause analysis of overloading is the most important technology of the monitoring and early-warning system of resource and environmental carrying capacity. It is also the basis of formulating regional restrictive policies. This research first sets up an overall framework for the cause analysis of overloading, then describes the key factors and the methods for analysis. Based on this framework, the study conducts basic evaluations, specific evaluations, and comprehensive analysis of overloading for the land and marine systems, and summarizes some important findings. Finally, it conducts an empirical study on the resource and environmental system of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show that the causes of resource and environmental system overloading in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can be divided into natural, developmental, and management factors. The primary causes of overloading are developmental factors such as excessive concentration of population and industries, low-end industries, and energy consumption structure. Water resources shortage and the landform and climate are the main reasons for the overloading. The overloading of the marine environment is due to the poor purification ability of the inland sea, the ecological degradation of the sea area, and the intensity of coastal development. In addition, the dominant factors and their interactions varied in different regions. The difference is not only seen in the basic evaluations, but also in the specific evaluations and comprehensive analysis of overloading. Unfortunately, the existing resource and environmental management policies cannot effectively contain and solve the overloading problem of the resource and environmental system, and more effective measures need to be explored. The framework, methods, and cause analysis of overloading developed in this study can be used by the national and local governments for the monitoring and early-warning of the resource and environmental carrying capacity overloading.

Key words: resource and environmental carrying capacity, causes for overloading, factor interactional analysis, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

徐勇, 张雪飞, 周侃, 王传胜, 徐小任. 资源环境承载能力预警的超载成因分析方法及应用[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(3): 277-285.

Yong XU, Xuefei ZHANG, Kan ZHOU, Chuansheng WANG, Xiaoren XU. Method and application of cause analysis for early-warning of resource and environmental system overloading[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(3): 277-285.

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因素类型		因素及隶属因子
自然类	土地资源	地形地貌、可利用土地、土地利用现状、开发强度等
	水资源	降水、地表水、地下水、可利用水资源量、水资源利用量等
	环境	大气环境容量、水环境容量、土壤环境容量、废气排放、废水排放、固废排放等
	生态	水土流失、土地沙漠化、土地石漠化、土壤盐渍化、植被覆盖等
	其他	地质条件、气象条件、地质灾害、气象灾害等
发展类	人口	人口数量、人口集聚程度、就业结构、人口城镇化等
	产业	产业类别、产业规模、产业结构、产业集聚程度、产业发展阶段等
	其他	经济发展方式、速度、区际联系、能源消费构成、居民生活方式等
管理类	管理方式	目标设定、组织体系、职责及权限、方法及程序等
	法规	与资源环境相关的法律、行政法规、部门条例、地方性法规等
	政策	财政、投资、产业、土地、人口管理、环境保护以及绩效评价和政绩考核等政策
	其他	管理机制体制、技术标准等

评价结果		自然类因素			发展类因素			管理类因素
评价结果		自然条件	资源禀赋	其他	人口	产业	其他	法规	政策	其他
陆域基础评价	土地压力状态	++	+++	+	+++++	+++++	++++	++	++	++
	水资源超载状态	+++	+++++	++++	+++++	+++++	++++	++	++	++
	环境污染状态	++++	++	+++++	+++++	+++++	++++	+++	+++	++
	生态健康状态	++++	++	+++	++++	++++	+++	++	+++	++
陆域专项评价	城市地区灰霾状况	++	+++	++++	+++++	+++++	++++	++	++	++
	农业地区耕地质量	+++	+++	++		+++++	+++		++	++
	牧业地区草畜平衡	++	+++	+++		+++++	++++		+++	++
	生态地区生态安全	++++	++	+++		++++	+++		+++	+++

评价结果		自然类因素			发展类因素			管理类因素
评价结果		自然条件	资源禀赋	其他	人口	产业	其他	法规	政策	其他
海域基础评价	海洋空间资源状态	+	+	+	++	++++	++	+	+	+
	海洋渔业资源状态	+	+++	+	++	++++	++	+	+	+
	海洋生态环境状态	++	+	+	++	++++	+++	+	+	+
	海岛资源环境状态	++	+++	+	+	+++	+	+	+	+
海域专项评价	重点用海区围填海	+	+	+	+++	+++++	++	++	++	++
	渔业区渔业资源	+	++++	+		+++++	++		++	++
	生态区生态系统	++	++	+		+++	+		++	++