京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

京津冀地区是中国重要的人口集聚区和经济增长极,在京津冀协同发展的背景下研究京津冀地区人口与经济的协调发展关系,对于促进区域内经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于京津冀地区2000-2010年各区(县)和2000-2014年各城市的人口、GDP数据,运用人口—经济增长弹性、地理集中度、不一致指数、重心分析等方法探究京津冀地区人口与经济的协调发展关系,结果表明：①在总量规模上,京津冀地区整体人口增长与经济增长的协调度较高,但各城市人口增长与经济增长的协调度存在较大差异。②在空间分布上,从地理集中度来看,京津冀地区人口、经济地理集中度均呈现北部低、中南部高的分布特征,其中北京、天津经济地理集中度高于人口地理集中度,河北多数城市人口地理集中度高于经济地理集中度;从重心来看,京津冀地区整体的人口与经济重心都向东北方向移动,且经济重心的移动幅度大于人口重心,2个重心偏离距离不断加大,此外各城市的人口重心与经济重心也出现不同程度的分离。最后,提出了促进京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展的政策建议。

关键词: 人口增长, 经济布局, 协调发展, 京津冀地区

Abstract:

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is an important population agglomeration area and economic growth pole in China. Research on the coordinated development between population and economy under the backgroud of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is of great significance for promoting sustainable development of regional economy. Based on the population and GDP of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, this study applied elasticity, geographic concentration index, inconsistency index, and gravity center methods to analyze the coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results are as follows: (1) The degree of coordination between population growth and economic growth was generally high in the whole region, but differs among the cities. (2) Population and economic activities are concentrated in the southern and central parts of the region while the north was sparsely populated with few economic activities. The economic concentration index values were higher than the population concentration index values in Beijing and Tianjin. The population concentration index values were higher than the economic concentration index values in most cities of Hebei. The population gravity center and economic gravity center both moved towards the northeast of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with the economic gravity center displaying a stronger movement momentum. Moreover, the population gravity center of each city in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region deviates from the economic gravity center to different extents. This article also puts forward some policy recommendations for promoting the coordinated development between population and economy.

Key words: population growth, economic distribution, coordinated development, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

李国平, 罗心然. 京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(1): 25-33.

Guoping LI, Xinran LUO. Coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(1): 25-33.

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年份	人口增长率/%	GDP增长率/%	人口—经济增长弹性
2000	2.45	11.13	0.22
2001	0.64	7.38	0.09
2002	0.89	14.27	0.06
2003	0.82	15.99	0.05
2004	0.97	19.90	0.05
2005	1.01	28.97	0.03
2006	1.49	15.08	0.10
2007	1.68	17.25	0.10
2008	2.07	18.91	0.11
2009	1.88	11.39	0.17
2010	3.28	17.98	0.18
2011	1.52	18.69	0.08
2012	1.47	10.38	0.14
2013	1.39	8.03	0.17
2014	1.21	7.00	0.17

地区	人口年均增长率/%	GDP年均增长率/%	人口—经济增长弹性
北京	3.31	16.62	0.20
天津	3.01	17.53	0.17
石家庄	1.00	12.43	0.08
唐山	0.71	14.68	0.05
秦皇岛	0.77	10.80	0.07
邯郸	0.80	13.21	0.06
邢台	0.63	11.25	0.06
保定	0.66	11.02	0.06
张家口	0.38	12.99	0.03
承德	0.42	16.25	0.03
沧州	0.75	14.66	0.05
廊坊	1.19	13.52	0.09
衡水	0.44	10.11	0.04

象限	人口增长与经济增长协调发展关系	城市
第一象限	人口经济弹性高,经济增速高	北京和天津
第二象限	人口经济弹性低,经济增速高	沧州、唐山和承德
第三象限	人口经济弹性低,经济增速低	石家庄、秦皇岛、邯郸、保定、衡水和张家口
第四象限	人口经济弹性高,经济增速低	廊坊

城市	人口重心移动距离/km	经济重心移动距离/km
天津	4.69	22.68
承德	2.85	16.68
邢台	0.44	9.19
邯郸	0.58	7.36
北京	0.56	7.00
唐山	0.27	5.54
廊坊	3.25	4.95
张家口	1.01	3.12
沧州	0.59	2.74
保定	0.60	2.42
衡水	0.83	1.45
秦皇岛	2.13	1.30
石家庄	1.56	0.62

城市	人口重心与经济重心的偏离距离/km		偏离距离增加值/km
城市	2000年		2010年
天津	2.34	16.31	13.96
承德	7.87	18.73	10.85
邢台	3.57	12.05	8.48
邯郸	10.83	17.83	7.00
唐山	1.51	3.77	2.26
沧州	5.76	7.82	2.06
廊坊	10.86	12.55	1.70
石家庄	3.03	2.04	-1.00
衡水	4.37	3.36	-1.01
北京	4.04	2.58	-1.46
秦皇岛	12.88	10.05	-2.83
保定	8.13	5.29	-2.83
张家口	7.40	3.79	-3.60