京津冀城市群协同发展的理论基础与规律性分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推动京津冀城市群协同发展既是一项国家重大战略,又是一个复杂的长期博弈过程,需要遵循科学理论,尊重科学规律,推动京津冀城市群实现共同繁荣昌盛、共享蓝天白云、共担发展风险、共建世界都会的战略目标。本文从理论上提出了京津冀城市群协同发展的科学理论基础与科学规律。认为推进京津冀城市群协同发展应以协同论、博弈论、耗散结构理论和突变论作为科学理论基础,其中协同论为核心理论。京津冀城市群的协同发展过程是一个博弈、协同、突变、再博弈、再协同、再突变的非线性螺旋式上升过程,每一次博弈—协同—突变过程,都将城市群的协同发展推向更高级协同阶段,并呈现出阶段性规律。具体包括协助阶段、协作阶段、协调阶段、协合阶段、协同阶段、协振阶段、一体化阶段和同城化阶段共8大阶段。进一步分析认为,京津冀城市群协同发展的真正内涵是推动城市群实现规划协同、交通协同、产业协同、城乡协同、市场协同、科技协同、金融协同、信息协同、生态协同和环境协同,建设协同发展共同体。本文成果旨在为京津冀协同发展提供科学基础和理论依据。

关键词: 京津冀城市群, 协同发展, 理论基础, 科学释义, 科学规律

Abstract:

Promoting coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is not only a major national strategy, but also a long-term complex process. It is necessary to apply scientific theories and respect the laws of nature to realize the strategic target of common prosperity, share a clean environment, share the burden of risk of development, and build a world-class metropolis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. This article examines the scientific foundation and patterns of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. Synergy theory, game theory, dissipative structure theory, and catastrophe theory are the theoretical basis of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. Synergy theory is the core theory for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. The coordinated development process of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is a non-linear spiral progress of game, coordination, mutation, game, resynchronization, and mutation. Each game-coordination-mutation process promotes the coordinated development of the urban agglomeration to a higher level of coordination, and the progress fluctuates. This process includes eight stages: assistance phase, cooperation phase, harmonization phase, synergy phase, coordination phase, resonance phase, integration phase, and cohesion phase. Further analysis shows that the real connotation of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is to realize the coordination of planning, transportation, industrial development, urban and rural development, market, science and technology, finance, information, ecology, and the environment, as well as the construction of a collaborative development community. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration will achieve advanced collaboration from low-level collaborative phase through regional coordination on planning, construction of traffic network, industrial development, joint development of urban and rural areas, market consolidation, science and technology cooperation, equal development of financial services, information sharing, ecological restoration, and pollution control. This study may provide a scientific foundation and theoretical basis for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, coordinated development, theoretical foundation, scientific interpretation, scientific laws

方创琳. 京津冀城市群协同发展的理论基础与规律性分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(1): 15-24.

Chuanglin FANG. Theoretical foundation and patterns of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(1): 15-24.

图/表 8

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表1

参考文献 15

[1]	范如国. 2011. 博弈论[M]. 武汉: 武汉大学出版社.
	[Fan R G.2011. Game theory[M]. Wuhan, China: Wuhan University Press.]
[2]	方创琳. 1989. 耗散结构理论与地理系统论[J]. 干旱区地理, 12(3): 51-56.
	[Fang C L.1989. Dissipative structure theory and geographical system theory[J]. Arid Land Geography, 12(3): 51-56.]
[3]	方创琳. 2014. 中国城市群研究取得的重要进展与未来发展方向[J]. 地理学报, 69(8): 1130-1144. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201408009
	[Fang C L.2014. Progress and the future direction of research into urban agglomeration in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(8): 1130-1144.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201408009
[4]	方创琳. 2015. 科学选择与分级培育适应新常态发展的中国城市群[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 30(2): 127-136.
	[Fang C L.2015. Scientific selection and grading cultivation of China's urban agglomeration adaptive to new normal in China[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 30(2): 127-136.]
[5]	方创琳, 毛其智. 2015. 中国城市群选择与培育的新探索[M]. 北京: 科学出版社: 98-122.
	[Fang C L, Mao Q Z.2015. Zhongguo chengshiqun xuanze yu peiyu de xintansuo[M]. Beijing, China: Science Press: 98-122.]
[6]	方创琳, 宋吉涛, 蔺雪芹. 2010. 中国城市群可持续发展理论与实践[M]. 北京: 科学出版社.
	[Fang C L, Song J T, Lin X Q.2010. Zhongguo chengshiqun kechixu fazhan lilun yu shijian[M]. Beijing, China: Science Press.]
[7]	方创琳, 姚士谋, 刘盛和. 2011. 2010中国城市群发展报告[M]. 北京: 科学出版社.
	[Fang C L, Yao S M, Liu S H.2011. 2010 Zhongguo chengshiqun fazhan baogao[M]. Beijing, China: Science Press.]
[8]	弗登博格D, 梯若尔 J. 2010. 博弈论[M]. 黄涛, 译. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社.
	[Fudenberg D, Tirole J.2010. Game theory[M]. Huang T, Trans. Beijing, China: China Renmin University Press.]
[9]	郭治安, 沈小峰. 1991. 协同论[M]. 太原: 山西经济出版社.
	[Guo Z A, Shen X F.1991. Synergetics[M]. Taiyuan, China: Shanxi Economy Press.]
[10]	哈肯H. 1989. 高等协同学[M]. 郭治安, 译. 北京: 科学出版社.
	[Haken H.1989. Advanced synergetics[M]. Guo Z A, Trans. Beijing, China: Science Press.]
[11]	哈肯H. 1993. 协同学导论[M]. 郭治安, 译. 第3版. 成都: 成都科技大学出版社.
	[Haken H.1993. Synergetics an introduction[M]. Guo Z A, Trans. 3rd ed. Chengdu, China: Chengdu University of Science and Technology Press.]
[12]	黄磊. 2012. 协同论历史哲学[M]. 北京: 中国社会科学出版社.
	[Huang L.2012. Xietonglun lishi zhexue[M]. Beijing, China: China Social Sciences Press.]
[13]	黄润荣, 任光耀. 1988. 耗散结构与协同学[M]. 贵阳: 贵州人民出版社.
	[Huang R R, Ren G Y.1988. Haosan jiegou yu xietongxue[M]. Guiyang, China: Guizhou People's Press.]
[14]	沈小峰, 胡岗, 姜璐. 1987. 耗散结构论[M]. 上海: 上海人民出版社.
	[Shen X F, Hu G, Jiang L.1987. Haosan jiegoulun[M]. Shanghai, China: Shanghai People's Publishing House.]
[15]	Thom R.1989. 突变论: 思想和应用[M]. 周仲良, 译. 上海: 上海译文出版社.
	[Thom R.1989. Tubianlun: Sixiang he yingyong[M]. Zhou J L, Trans. Shanghai, China: Shanghai Translation Publishing House.]

序号	阶段名称	协同程度%	协同特征	区域性问题与冲突	协同需求	对应的城市群发展时期
1	协助阶段	0~10	原始协同	区域性问题与冲突很少,相互之间很少有合作联系	无需求	雏形期
2	协作阶段	10~20	初级协同	区域性问题与冲突出现,相互之间有较少合作联系	需求较少	初级期
3	协调阶段	20~30	低级协同	区域性问题与冲突增多,相互之间开展协商与合作	需求渐增	成长期
4	协合阶段	30~40	中低级协同	区域性问题与冲突剧增,相互之间只有密切合作才能缓解冲突,解决各自问题	需求增大	成长期
5	协同阶段	40~50	中级协同	区域性问题与冲突升级为风险或灾难,相互之间只有协同应对,才能共同渡过难关	需求增大	成长期
6	协振阶段	50~70	中高级协同	区域性问题与冲突缓解之后,相互之间建立起化解冲突防范灾难的协作机制,共同进入协同共荣状态	需求很大	成熟期
7	一体化阶段	70~85	高级协同	区域性问题与冲突缓解之后,相互之间经济技术联系进一步加强,共同进入一体化发展状态	需求很大	成熟期
8	同城化阶段	85~100	顶级协同	区域性问题与冲突缓解之后,相互之间融合程度进一步加强,共同进入高度同城化发展状态	需求极大	顶级期