地理科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12): 1472-1482.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.12.004

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1990-2014年泛长三角地区能源利用碳排放时空格局及影响因素

陈江龙1,2(), 李平星1,2,**(), 高金龙1,2,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室,南京 210008
    2. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京 210008
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2016-12-20
  • 通讯作者: 李平星 E-mail:jlchen@niglas.ac.cn;pxli@niglas.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:陈江龙(1974-),男,福建厦门人,博士,副研,硕导,主要从事区域发展与土地利用研究,E-mail:jlchen@niglas.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41130750,41401187)

Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region, 11990-2014

Jianglong CHEN1,2(), Pingxing LI1,2,*(), Jinlong GAO1,2,3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
    2. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
    3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Online:2016-12-20 Published:2016-12-20
  • Contact: Pingxing LI E-mail:jlchen@niglas.ac.cn;pxli@niglas.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41130750, No.41401187

摘要:

区域碳排放时空格局及其关键影响因素是近年来学者们关注的热点。本文以中国经济发达、经济关联密切、产业格局变化剧烈的泛长三角地区为案例,分析1990年以来典型年份碳排放的空间分异、时间演变,解析碳排放空间分异的关键影响因素。结果表明:①区域碳排放总量快速增长,总体格局稳中有变,核心区16个城市排放量占比大都超过50%。②以2005年为拐点,之前外围城市增长幅度较低,之后外围城市碳排放量快速增长;外围地区碳排放量占比从2005年的33%快速增加至2014年的47%,区域碳排放量的空间集聚度呈现先增后减的态势。③碳排放格局变化受多种因素影响,不同变量对碳排放的影响各异。其中,工业生产、城镇化建设及人口集聚仍是现阶段泛长三角地区最主要的碳排放来源;固定资产与外商投资对区域碳排放的作用呈增强趋势,但其作用强度较工业生产、城镇化建设、人口集聚要小。地区生产总值对碳排放影响存在倒U型关系,随着经济发展水平的提高,碳排放与经济发展呈现脱钩趋势。研究结果可为揭示经济发展格局变化的环境效应、制定节能减排政策提供参考。

关键词: 碳排放, 空间分异, 时间演变, 影响因素, 泛长三角

Abstract:

In recent years, the spatial and temporal patterns of regional carbon emissions and their influencing factors were a key research focus by researchers from various fields. Taking the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region— one of the most economically developed and fast changing regions in China—as case area, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon emissions in six representative years of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014. Employing scree plot analysis and a nonlinear polynomial model, we also investigated the major influencing factors of carbon emissions in 2010. Results indicate that the total amount of carbon emissions has increased rapidly, but the spatial pattern has been largely stable since 1990. Sixteen cities of the core area dominated the carbon emissions in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region, and they accounted for more than 50% of the total at most stages. However, the amount and rate of growth of the carbon emissions of all cities showed significant spatial differences. With 2005 as the turning point, the share of carbon emissions of most peripheral cities declined gradually before, but grew faster than the core cities after this point. The total share of the peripheral cities increased to 47% in 2014 from 33% in 2005. The spatial agglomeration degree first increased and then decreased. The spatial heterogeneity of regional carbon emissions was affected by various factors including economic development and energy consumption. Industrialization, urbanization, and population agglomeration are the major factors of carbon emissions. Fixed asset investment and foreign direct investment also had effects on carbon emissions. The relationship between economic development and carbon emissions shows an inverted U shape. The results indicate the environmental effect of change in economic development pattern and can provide some reference for energy saving and carbon emission reduction policy making.

Key words: carbon emission, spatial heterogeneity, temporal change, influencing factor, Pan-Yangtze River Delta