1990-2014年泛长三角地区能源利用碳排放时空格局及影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.12.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

区域碳排放时空格局及其关键影响因素是近年来学者们关注的热点。本文以中国经济发达、经济关联密切、产业格局变化剧烈的泛长三角地区为案例,分析1990年以来典型年份碳排放的空间分异、时间演变,解析碳排放空间分异的关键影响因素。结果表明：①区域碳排放总量快速增长,总体格局稳中有变,核心区16个城市排放量占比大都超过50%。②以2005年为拐点,之前外围城市增长幅度较低,之后外围城市碳排放量快速增长;外围地区碳排放量占比从2005年的33%快速增加至2014年的47%,区域碳排放量的空间集聚度呈现先增后减的态势。③碳排放格局变化受多种因素影响,不同变量对碳排放的影响各异。其中,工业生产、城镇化建设及人口集聚仍是现阶段泛长三角地区最主要的碳排放来源;固定资产与外商投资对区域碳排放的作用呈增强趋势,但其作用强度较工业生产、城镇化建设、人口集聚要小。地区生产总值对碳排放影响存在倒U型关系,随着经济发展水平的提高,碳排放与经济发展呈现脱钩趋势。研究结果可为揭示经济发展格局变化的环境效应、制定节能减排政策提供参考。

关键词: 碳排放, 空间分异, 时间演变, 影响因素, 泛长三角

Abstract:

In recent years, the spatial and temporal patterns of regional carbon emissions and their influencing factors were a key research focus by researchers from various fields. Taking the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region— one of the most economically developed and fast changing regions in China—as case area, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon emissions in six representative years of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014. Employing scree plot analysis and a nonlinear polynomial model, we also investigated the major influencing factors of carbon emissions in 2010. Results indicate that the total amount of carbon emissions has increased rapidly, but the spatial pattern has been largely stable since 1990. Sixteen cities of the core area dominated the carbon emissions in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region, and they accounted for more than 50% of the total at most stages. However, the amount and rate of growth of the carbon emissions of all cities showed significant spatial differences. With 2005 as the turning point, the share of carbon emissions of most peripheral cities declined gradually before, but grew faster than the core cities after this point. The total share of the peripheral cities increased to 47% in 2014 from 33% in 2005. The spatial agglomeration degree first increased and then decreased. The spatial heterogeneity of regional carbon emissions was affected by various factors including economic development and energy consumption. Industrialization, urbanization, and population agglomeration are the major factors of carbon emissions. Fixed asset investment and foreign direct investment also had effects on carbon emissions. The relationship between economic development and carbon emissions shows an inverted U shape. The results indicate the environmental effect of change in economic development pattern and can provide some reference for energy saving and carbon emission reduction policy making.

Key words: carbon emission, spatial heterogeneity, temporal change, influencing factor, Pan-Yangtze River Delta

陈江龙, 李平星, 高金龙. 1990-2014年泛长三角地区能源利用碳排放时空格局及影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(12): 1472-1482.

Jianglong CHEN, Pingxing LI, Jinlong GAO. Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region, 11990-2014[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(12): 1472-1482.

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能源类型	碳排放量/(kg·C/kg标准煤)	能源类型	碳排放量/(kg·C/kg标准煤)
原煤	0.7559	柴油	0.5714
洗精煤	0.7559	燃料油	0.6185
焦炭	0.8550	液化石油气	0.5042
焦炉煤气	0.3548	炼厂干气	0.4602
其他煤气	0.3548	天然气	0.4483
原油	0.6449	其他石油制品	0.5857
汽油	0.5538	其他焦化产品	0.6449

项目		1990年	1995年	2000年	2005年	2010年	2014年
核心区	总量/万t	8115.51	11206.87	15751.26	30915.65	43018.76	45176.17
核心区	占比/%	58.41	61.16	65.39	66.76	60.41	53.38
外围区	总量/万t	5778.77	7115.84	8335.69	15396.11	28192.70	39461.95
外围区	占比/%	41.59	38.84	34.61	33.24	39.59	46.62

变量	OLS逐步回归模型				Stacking 法非线性组合模型
变量	模型I		模型II	模型III	估计值	标准误	95%置信区间
地区生产总值	0.586^**				-0.291	0.181	-0.657~0.074
工业增加值			0.071		0.001	0.000	0.001~0.001
重工业增加值			0.526^***		0.318	0.244	-0.173~0.809
能源消费总量		0.927^***			1.182	0.229	0.722~1.642
外商直接投资		0.104^**			0.002	0.113	-0.226~0.229
固定资产投资	0.480^**	0.026			0.322	0.095	0.130~0.514
常住人口总量	0.699^**		0.406^**		-0.222	0.073	-0.370~-0.074
城镇化率			1.099^**		-0.061	0.016	-0.093~-0.028
调整R²	0.681	0.798	0.719		0.963