地理科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (11): 1305-1316.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.11.001

• •    下一篇

全面二孩政策对中国人口结构及区域人口空间格局的影响

王开泳1,2(), 丁俊1,2,3, 王甫园1,2,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 出版日期:2016-11-25 发布日期:2016-11-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王开泳(1980-),男,山东滕州人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为城市地理与政区地理,E-mail:wangky@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41371178,41471126)

Influence of the implementation of the universal two-child policy on demographic structure and population spatial distribution in China

Kaiyong WANG1,2(), Jun DING1,2,3, Fuyuan WANG1,2,3   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Online:2016-11-25 Published:2016-11-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41371178, No.41471126

摘要:

从“单独二孩”到“全面二孩”,近几年中国生育政策的连续调整,不仅引起了社会的强烈反响,而且也将对中国未来的人口结构和空间格局产生重要影响。本文利用人口学的队列元素法对全面放开二孩政策实施后,中国未来总人口及人口结构的变化趋势进行预测,并从地理学的角度分析了全面放开二孩对中国区域人口空间格局的影响。结果表明:①全面放开二孩可以有效延缓中国总人口的递减趋势、老龄化的趋势以及未来劳动人口不断走低的趋势;②全面放开二孩政策前后,中国的区域人口空间分布均呈现东部人口密度最高、中部次之、东北再次、西部最低的总体格局,全面放开二孩将会增加胡焕庸线东南侧的人口密度,中国人口分布东南集聚、西北相对稀疏的格局将会长期存在并进一步加剧;③根据各省全面放开二孩政策后未来15年人口变化强度,可划分为人口快速变化区、人口中速变化区、人口缓慢变化区和人口平稳区。

关键词: 全面二孩政策, 人口结构, 空间格局, 影响, 中国

Abstract:

From the policy allowing couples to have a second child if one parent is an only child to universal two-child policy, fertility policy in China had changed in succession, which had caused extensive social concerns and would have an influence on Chinese demographics in the future. This article projects the trend of total population and demographic structure in China after implementing the universal two-child policy by queue group element method from the demographic perspective, and analyzes the influence of the policy on Chinese population spatial distribution from a geographic perspective. The results show that: (1) Implementing a universal two-child policy can reduce the declining trend of the total population, aging of the population, and dropping of working age population. (2) Eastern China has the highest population density, followed by the central, northeastern, and western regions. Implementing a universal two-child policy can increase the population density of the area to the southeast of the Hu Line, but there will be little change to the northwest of the Hu Line. The current population spatial distribution pattern will continue to exist. (3) Based on the provincial-level annual change intensities of population density, China can be divided into rapid population growth zone, medium-speed population growth zone, slow population growth zone, and stable population zone.

Key words: universal two-child policy, demographic structure, spatial pattern, influence, China