地理科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 1075-1086.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.09.003

• 研究综述 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市暴雨积涝灾害风险突增效应研究进展

扈海波   

  1. 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所, 北京 100089
  • 收稿日期:2016-02-01 修回日期:2016-05-01 出版日期:2016-09-20 发布日期:2016-09-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:扈海波(1970-),男,贵州遵义人,研究员,主要从事城市气象灾害研究,E-mail: hbhu@ium.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41175099); 北京自然科学基金项目(8142019)

Research progress of surging urban flood risks

Haibo HU   

  1. Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
  • Received:2016-02-01 Revised:2016-05-01 Online:2016-09-20 Published:2016-09-20
  • Supported by:
    Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41175099; Beijing Natural Science Foundation, No.8142019

摘要:

城市暴雨积涝风险突增效应研究对揭示此类风险与人类活动所导致的城市化过程的关系,及用于城市地区灾害风险识别及风险预警均有重要价值。本文从城市因素(地表粗糙度、气溶胶及城市热岛等)影响城市地区降水过程,以及城市地区土地利用和土地覆盖变化(LUCC)影响城市地表水文反应过程2个方面综合论述风险突增效应研究的进展及主要结论。在研究方法上,总结了现有文献所用的暴雨危险性的主要评估模型,认为暴雨危险性计算需要结合雨强及暴雨持续时间。城市地表对暴雨积涝的敏感性分析需借助城市水文模型;在模型分析过程中,应注重雨量数据的有效性,以及城市排水管网、土地利用和土地覆盖等资料的可获取性及概化。为定量评估城市暴雨积涝风险突增效应,需要使用更高时空分辨率的数据资料分析暴雨危险性特征,通过细化及发展城市水文模型,完成敏感性实验分析;在此基础上,综合危险性及敏感性特征,评估城市地区暴雨积涝风险,揭示暴雨积涝风险在城市地区的空间分布差异及风险突增效应。相关成果可用于城市暴雨积涝的风险识别、评估、预警及风险管理。

关键词: 暴雨积涝, 风险评估, 水文模型, 研究进展

Abstract:

Due to the frequent occurrence of floods in urban areas, it is imperative to investigate their causes and determine whether they are mainly the result of global climate change or urbanization induced by human activities. Existing research on the impact of urbanization on urban floods focuses on hazards assessment as well as sensitivity tests. They are critical to risk reduction and severe weather early warning. Precipitation intensity downwind or over cities may be enhanced. Meanwhile the increased areal coverage of impervious surfaces in urban areas can alter the natural hydrologic response. In order to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of elevated flood risks in urban areas, by examining published work on the topics, we put forward the following thoughts on future research direction. The first is to use high spatial resolution observation data to determine the distribution of hazards induced by rainstorms in urban areas. The second is to develop suitable hydrological models using high resolution urban land surface data for simulating the hydroclimatic sensitivity of watersheds. The third is to combine rainstorm hazards and sensitivity in risk assessment to reveal the discrepancy of flood risks in urban areas, as well as effects induced by urbanization. Risk assessment identifies flood risks in urban areas and can be useful for risk management, which is essential in risk mitigation.

Key words: flash flood, risk assessment, hydrological model, research progress