地理科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (8): 921-931.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.08.001

• •    下一篇

县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异

王录仓1(), 武荣伟2,3, 刘海猛4,3, 周鹏1, 康江江5   

  1. 1. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州 730070
    2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐 830011
    3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    4. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    5. 河南大学环境与规划学院,河南 开封 475004
  • 出版日期:2016-08-25 发布日期:2016-08-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王录仓(1967-),男,甘肃天水人,教授,博导,主要从事城乡发展与规划研究,E-mail:wanglc007@nwnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41261042)

Spatial patterns and regional differences of population ageing in China based on the county scale

Lucang WANG1(), Rongwei WU2,3, Haimeng LIU4,3, Peng ZHOU1, Jiangjiang KANG5   

  1. 1. College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    2. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    5. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
  • Online:2016-08-25 Published:2016-08-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41261042

摘要:

2000年以来,中国的老龄化进程加快,人口老龄化已经成为中国社会经济发展必须面对的新常态与核心问题之一。本文从县域尺度出发,基于2000和2010年的人口普查数据,应用标准差椭圆、地理探测器等方法,分析了10年间中国2283个县域单元人口老龄化的空间分布、区域差异及其影响因素。结果表明:①人口老龄化空间分布模式多样,胡焕庸线西北半壁以均质化、轴带特征为主;而胡焕庸线东南半壁则呈现出核心—外围的分布特征。②2000-2010年间,人口老龄化均值从6.7%增至8.7%,表明中国县域全面进入老年型社会,步入老年型的县域多集中于内陆、东北地区、丝绸之路经济带沿线区;10年间人口老龄化总体空间格局较为稳定,但人口老龄化的变动趋势差异显著。③人口老龄化在“胡焕庸线”两侧、不同地域类型间、城乡间、民族自治地区与非民族自治地区间、贫困与非贫困地区间存在差异,且差异变动的方向并不一致。④影响人口老龄化的核心因素为各区域往期人口年龄结构、步入老年序列人口比重、人口流出的比例等。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 县域尺度, 空间格局, 区域差异, 中国

Abstract:

Population ageing is becoming one of the major challenges that cannot be overlooked in the process of socioeconomic development in china. China has entered into the ageing society since 2000. Based on the county-scale data in the 2000 and 2010 censuses and using standard deviational ellipse (SDE) and geographical detector methods, this study systematically analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics and regional differences of population ageing. The results are as follows: First, Population ageing varies spatially. Population ageing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau usually shows an even distribution. Population ageing on the southeastern side of China usually shows a center-periphery type of distribution and coastal-inland contrast. Second, the mean value of aged population proportion increased from 6.7% to 8.0% between 2000 and 2010. By 2010, China had become an aged society. The counties that had high percentage of aged population concentrated in the interior, the Northeast, and along the silk road economic region. The spatial pattern of population ageing is relatively stable, but significant difference was found in the trend of population ageing change. Third, there are regional differences in the population ageing of China, characterized by differences between urban areas and the countryside, ethnic minority regions and other regions, and poverty-stricken region and non-poverty areas. But the direction of change is not consistent. Last, There are many factors affecting population ageing level of counties, mainly including population ageing of the year 2000, population age structure, natural conditions, emigration rate, and economic development stage. The distribution of social and economic development level was not consistent with the distribution of population ageing change.

Key words: population ageing, county scale, spatial pattern, regional differences, China