中国县域城镇化的道路交通影响因素识别及空间协同性解析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.07.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于人口普查数据和路网数据,利用空间滞后回归模型和耦合协调度模型等,对中国县域城镇化率的道路交通影响及其空间耦合协同性进行分析,研究表明：①中国县域低城镇化水平的县(区)主要集中在传统农区、集中连片贫困山区、高寒经济欠发达区。经济发展水平与人力资源空间上的错位,致使经济欠发达地区的人口倒挂,异地城市化特征显著;②中国县(区)道路交通优势度宏观上呈现出东西部区域差异和交通枢纽与外围区域的差异,“点—轴”地域结构特征显著,县域道路交通优势度数值呈现偏正态分布;③道路交通是城镇间和城镇与区域间联系的核心纽带和产业转型升级发展的传输廊道,开放式的道路系统增强了农村生产要素非农化转型的市场可介入性,对县域城镇化发展有积极作用。高速公路出口、火车站的布局对城镇化影响和带动农村要素非农化作用较为明显;④中国县域交通优势度与城镇化率耦合协调度分级分布为偏正态分布,城镇化发展与交通优势度相互影响显著,呈一定的双向耦合性。

关键词: 城镇化, 交通优势度, 空间协同性, 乡村地理学, 中国

Abstract:

With the fifth and sixth census and road network data, and using a spatial interoperability evaluation model and a spatial lag model, the spatial coupling relationship between China's road transport superiority degree and urbanization rate at the county level was analyzed. The result shows that: (1) Regional difference of China's urbanization rate is significant at the county level. Urbanization rate is low in traditional agricultural areas, poor contiguous mountainous counties (districts), and the spatial mismatch between economic development and labor resources was widespread, with urbanization taking place in areas away from residents’ place of origin in underdeveloped areas. (2) Regional difference of road transport superiority degree is clear between the eastern and western regions and between the transport hubs and peripheries, with a clear “point-axis” spatial structure at the regional level. Road transport superiority degree showed a partial normal distribution at the county level. (3) The overall coverage of highways, national highways, provincial highways, and county and township roads affects road accessibility for production flow, information flow, and non-agricultural market entrance of rural production factors, which affect urbanization development at the county level. Urbanization was obviously facilitated by the presence of highway exits and railway stations. (4) The spatial interoperability grade of road transport superiority degree and urbanization rate shows a partial normal distribution, with significantly mutual influence between urbanization and road transport development levels.

Key words: urbanization, road transport superiority degree, spatial interoperability, rural geography, China

杨忍. 中国县域城镇化的道路交通影响因素识别及空间协同性解析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(7): 806-815.

Ren YANG. Spatial coupling cooperative analysis of road transport superiority and urbanization at county level in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(7): 806-815.

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目标层	准则层	权重	指标层	权重
交通优势度	交通覆盖水平	0.3874	高速路密度(x₁)	0.0884
			铁路密度(x₂)	0.0963
			国道密度(x₃)	0.0706
			省道密度(x₄)	0.0448
			县道密度(x₅)	0.0267
			乡镇道密度(x₆)	0.0163
	交通邻近水平	0.4434	邻近高速平均距离(x₇)	0.0090
			邻近铁路平均距离(x₈)	0.0552
			邻近国道平均距离(x₉)	0.0667
			邻近省道平均距离(x₁₀)	0.0353
			邻近县道平均距离(x₁₁)	0.1641
			邻近村镇道平均距离(x₁₂)	0.0955
	交通中心通达水平	0.1692	离省会平均距离(x₁₃)	0.0667
			离地级市平均距离(x₁₄)	0.1097
			离高速出口平均距离(x₁₅)	0.0389

耦合协调度(D)	协调等级	耦合协调度(D)	协调等级
0.90~1.00	优质协调	0.40~0.49	濒临失调
0.80~0.89	良好协调	0.30~0.39	轻度失调
0.70~0.79	中级协调	0.20~0.29	中度失调
0.60~0.69	初级协调	0.10~0.19	严重失调
0.50~0.59	勉强协调	0.00~0.09	极度失调

变量	偏回归系数	标准误差	Z值	显著性概率
Wy	0.2711	0.0261	10.3723	0.0000
常数项	0.3571	0.0677	5.2773	0.0000
高速路密度(x₁)	0.2003	0.0781	2.5635	0.0104
铁路密度(x₂)	0.8214	0.1106	7.4265	0.0000
国道密度(x₃)	0.4480	0.1625	2.7568	0.0058
省道密度(x₄)	0.0857	0.0562	1.5258	0.0271
县道密度(x₅)	0.0383	0.0474	0.8085	0.0988
乡镇道密度(x₆)	0.1011	0.0131	7.7472	0.0000
邻近高速平均距离(x₇)	0.0119	0.0439	0.2702	0.7870
邻近铁路平均距离(x₈)	0.2795	0.0616	4.5334	0.0000
邻近国道平均距离(x₉)	-0.4137	0.0696	-5.9427	0.0000
邻近省道平均距离(x₁₀)	-0.0777	0.0694	-1.1191	0.0263
邻近县道平均距离(x₁₁)	-0.3663	0.1597	-2.2938	0.0218
邻近村镇道平均距离(x₁₂)	0.0016	0.1732	0.0091	0.9927
离省会平均距离(x₁₃)	-0.3265	0.0440	-7.4183	0.0000
离地级市平均距离(x₁₄)	-0.0423	0.0468	-0.9041	0.3660
离高速出口平均距离(x₁₅)	-0.8194	0.1674	-4.8963	0.0000
交通综合优势度(x₁₆)	1.2310	0.2633	4.6752	0.0000

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