中国的地区企业进入与退出关联研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.03.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

企业的进入退出存在显著的前后关联,关联机制可以分解为竞争效应与乘数效应。本文探讨了1998-2013年间中国制造业企业的空间格局演化过程,发现地级市尺度的企业动态存在明显的时空关联。16年间,企业动态空间格局发生了剧烈演变,逐渐表现出同类型地区集聚现象。利用差分GMM的动态面板模型验证了企业动态在时间上的前后依赖关系。前期的进入与退出对本期企业动态有不同的影响,竞争效应决定企业的进入,乘数效应决定企业的退出。前期企业动态对后期进入的影响会立即显现出来并随时间衰减,而对退出的影响则存在明显滞后效应,在两年之后达到峰值。同时,产业动态关联机制存在显著的空间差异,其中东部地区显示出更强的竞争效应。不同发展水平的地区应采取差别化的政策来指导地区的产业发展,实现产业更新、结构升级和区域经济的可持续发展。东部地区应建立企业准入门槛,降低低效企业退出壁垒;西部地区应该积极吸引新企业进入,并保护在位企业,防止企业退出导致的连锁性萧条。

关键词: 规模以上制造业企业, 乘数效应, 竞争效应, 差分GMM, 动态面板模型, 企业进入与退出, 中国

Abstract:

This article investigates the interdependence mechanism between firm entry and exit, which can be categorized into multiplier and competition effects. First, we present the evolutionary process of the spatial distribution of manufacturing enterprises from 1998 to 2013 that indicates the spatiotemporal trend of industry dynamics. The spatial pattern has experienced dramatic changes, demonstrating an agglomeration tendency of same types of enterprises. Using difference-GMM model we conducted a regression analysis on a dynamic panel to test how regional entry and exit rates are affected by previous exit and entry rates. We found different influences of previous exit and entry. Entry rates are determined by competition effect while exit rates are determined by multiplier effect. The impact on entry is delivered immediately and decreases monotonically. However, a delayed effect exists in the impact on exit, which reaches the peak after two years. Further, we found different interdependence relationships in different regions. Competition effect is more intense in eastern coastal cities. In the eastern area, higher exit rate leads to more entries in the next stage, which proves that firm exit is a market action optimizing resource allocation while a higher entry rate will restrain future entry due to the high industry saturation. On the other hand, in the western area where industrial development is only beginning, a certain amount of exits will aggravate the exit rate in the next stage. Finally, the article examines policy implications of the interdependence dynamics. Regions under different economy background should adopt different policies to realize the sustainable development of industries. The eastern areas should set industry entry threshold criteria and lower exit barriers of inefficient enterprises. These actions can facilitate the working of market mechanism and result in creative destruction to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading. The western area should adopt the policy to attract more entries and protect existing firms in order to prevent a butterfly effect of enterprise exit.

Key words: manufacturing enterprises above designated size, multiplier effect, competition effect, difference-GMM, dynamic panel, firm entry and exit, China

李蕴雄, 任永欢, 贺灿飞. 中国的地区企业进入与退出关联研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(3): 349-357.

Yunxiong LI, Yonghuan REN, Canfei HE. Interdependencies in the dynamics of regional firm entry and exit in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(3): 349-357.

图/表 8

图1

表1

乘数效应与竞争效应的预期效果"

企业动态关系	乘数效应	竞争效应
$? E i, t ? E i, t - m$	+	-
$? X i, t ? E i, t - m$	-	+
$? E i, t ? X i, t - m$	+	-
$? X i, t ? X i, t - m$	-	+

表1

图2

图3

图4

表2

表3

当期企业进入与前三期企业动态关联结果"

变量	模型1：全国	模型2：东部	模型3：中部	模型4：西部
$E t - 1$	-0.314^**(0.0827)	-0.483^**(0.0765)	-0.351^**(0.1)	0.0704(0.182)
$E t - 2$	-0.244^**(0.0749)	-0.413^**(0.0752)	-0.277^**(0.0763)	-0.0376(0.126)
$E t - 3$	-0.125^*(0.0604)	-0.285^**(0.0721)	-0.186^**(0.0701)	-0.0448(0.091)
$X t - 1$	0.0227(0.0182)	0.0557(0.0815)	0.0268^**(0.0071)	-0.179^*(0.0804)
$X t - 2$	-0.0148(0.0248)	0.0586(0.0922)	-0.00487(0.00473)	-0.0620^**(0.0174)
$X t - 3$	-0.000961(0.026)	0.358^**(0.0834)	-0.00637^*(0.00278)	-0.0391^**(0.014)
常数项	0.171^**(0.0219)	0.202^**(0.0279)	0.182^**(0.0233)	0.129^**(0.032)
Arellano-Bond AR(2)	-0.314[0.7535]	-1.12[0.258]	-0.339[0.735]	-0.007[0.994]
样本数	1647	580	537	530

表3

表4

当期企业退出与前三期企业动态关联结果"

变量	模型4：全国	模型6：东部	模型7：中部	模型8：西部
$E t - 1$	-0.142^*(0.0681)	0.0172(0.0921)	-0.173(0.0969)	-0.297^**(0.0729)
$E t - 2$	-0.337^**(0.0648)	-0.132^*(0.0618)	-0.224^*(0.112)	-0.514^**(0.117)
$E t - 3$	-0.167^*(0.072)	-0.0874(0.0608)	-0.176^*(0.0731)	-0.330^*(0.137)
$X t - 1$	-0.0218(0.016)	0.0819(0.0598)	-0.0158^*(0.00804)	-0.0374(0.09)
$X t - 2$	-0.00907(0.0182)	0.0807(0.0491)	0.0232^**(0.00819)	-0.0251(0.0404)
$X t - 3$	0.00555(0.0181)	0.210^**(0.0449)	-0.00268(0.0147)	-0.00197(0.0223)
常数项	0.149^**(0.023)	0.0539^*(0.0241)	0.141^**(0.0244)	0.218^**(0.0447)
Arellano-Bond AR(2)	-0.3658[0.7145]	-1.0564[0.291]	-1.9801[0.048]	-1.13[0.257]
样本数	1647	580	537	530

表4

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