地理科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 223-231.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.02.009

• 研究论文| 脆弱性与灾害 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑防灾减灾能力的洪涝灾害灾损率曲线构建——以里下河地区的李中镇为例

吴先华1,2,*(), 周蕾2, 高歌1,3, 吉中会1,2, 郭际1,2   

  1. 1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044
    2. 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,南京 210044
    3. 国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-01 接受日期:2015-10-01 出版日期:2016-02-10 发布日期:2016-02-10
  • 通讯作者: 吴先华 E-mail:wxhua_77@nuist.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吴先华(1977-),男,湖北荆州人,教授,博导,从事气象灾害管理、产业系统分析研究,E-mail:wxhua_77@nuist.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71373131,91546117,41501555);国家公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201506051)

Flood depth-damage curves for urban properties considering disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities: Evidence from Lizhong Town, Lixiahe region, China

Xianhua WU1,2,*(), Lei ZHOU2, Ge GAO1,3, Zhonghui JI2, Ji GUO1,2   

  1. 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    2. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    3. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2015-06-01 Accepted:2015-10-01 Online:2016-02-10 Published:2016-02-10
  • Contact: Xianhua WU E-mail:wxhua_77@nuist.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71373131,No.91546117,No.41501555;National Nonprofit Industry Research Project, No.GYHY201506051

摘要:

作为恢复力的重要内容之一,承灾体的防灾减灾能力是评估灾害经济损失的重要参考因素。根据在里下河地区李中镇调研所得数据,绘制初始灾损率散点图,构建了初始灾损率曲线;然后考虑防灾减灾能力因素,绘制实际的灾损率散点图和拟合曲线。结果显示:①在0.05的显著性水平下,住宅区、工业区、商业区、公共设施区和农业区五类承灾体财产的淹没水深与灾损率均存在乘幂函数关系。②考虑防灾减灾能力因素后,洪涝灾害对不同承灾体的经济损失有所减少。住宅区财产在淹没水深3 m时经济损失减少了34%,工业区在2 m时经济损失减少了17%,商业区在3 m时经济损失减少了24%,公共设施部门在2 m时经济损失减少了11%。防灾减灾能力因素对住宅区洪涝灾害经济损失的影响更加明显。本文作为有关灾损率曲线研究的有益补充,结果可为类似地区城镇的防灾减灾决策及灾害风险管理提供参考。

关键词: 洪涝灾害, 防灾减灾能力, 灾损率曲线, 里下河地区, 中国

Abstract:

As an important part of resilience, disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of the exposure units are a key consideration in disaster economic loss assessment. Based on the data collected from Lizhong Town in the Lixiahe region of Jiangsu Province, the initial depth-damage scatter diagrams and fitted curves were drawn for residential property, industrial property, business, infrastructure, and agriculture. Then the modified depth-damage scatter diagrams and fitted curves in line with the actual damage situation were drawn by taking into consideration disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. The results show that: (1) At the significance level of 0.05, the correlation between submersion depth and depth-damage rate under different scenarios for residential property, industrial property, business, infrastructure, and agriculture is a power function; (2) Taking into consideration disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, economic losses of different exposure units caused by flood disaster decreased. Residential property flood losses were reduced by 34% at the submersion depth of 3 m; industrial property losses were reduced by 17% at the submersion depth of 2 m; business losses were reduced by 24% at the submersion depth of 3 m; and infrastructure losses were reduced by 11% at the submersion depth of 2 m. The influence of disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities on residential property flood losses was most obvious. This study may serve as a useful supplement for research on flood depth-damage relation and provide references for disaster prevention and mitigation decisions and disaster risk management in similar areas.

Key words: flood disaster, disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, depth-damage curve, Lixiahe region, China