暴雨洪水灾害人口损失评估方法研究进展

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.02.002

地理科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 148-158.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.02.002

暴雨洪水灾害人口损失评估方法研究进展

尹卫霞^1,²(), 余瀚^1,², 崔淑娟^1,², 王静爱^1,^2,^3,^*()

1. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京 100875
2. 北京师范大学区域地理研究实验室,北京 100875
3. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875

收稿日期:2015-07-01 接受日期:2016-01-01 出版日期:2016-02-10 发布日期:2016-02-10
通讯作者: 王静爱
作者简介:
作者简介：尹卫霞(1989-),女,山西忻州人,博士生,从事自然灾害人口脆弱性及风险评价研究,E-mail:yinwx@mail.bnu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
教育部—国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智计划项目(B08008)

Review on methods for estimating the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods

Weixia YIN^1,²(), Han YU^1,², Shujuan CUI^1,², Jing’ai WANG^1,^2,^3,^*()

1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2015-07-01 Accepted:2016-01-01 Online:2016-02-10 Published:2016-02-10
Contact: Jing’ai WANG
Supported by:
Expertise-Introduction Project for Disciplinary Innovation of Universities, No.B08008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在气候变化与城市化背景下,暴雨洪水灾害损失风险加剧,给人口生命安全带来极大威胁,评估暴雨洪水灾害的人口损失成为灾害风险研究关注的焦点问题。本文基于灾害系统理论,归纳了基于“致灾因子(H)—承灾体(V)—孕灾环境(E)—人口损失(D)”的暴雨洪水灾害人口损失评估的概念框架;基于现有国内外典型研究,梳理了相应的指标体系和研究方法,以“影响指标—损失指标—分析方法”多维图显示,认为“综合影响因素—人口损失”关系分析是评估暴雨洪水灾害人口损失的核心。目前人口损失的评估方法依据其考虑的要素可划分为：基于“H-D”关系的脆弱性曲线法、基于“H-V-E-D”关系的多要素综合法和刻画过程的灾害系统模拟法等。着重从数据可获取性和方法有效性两方面进行综述,认为单一方法不能满足人口损失风险评估的需求,因此从灾害系统角度出发,从单一要素向多要素综合发展、从指标统计分析向过程动态模拟发展、从单一方法向综合集成方法发展是人口损失及风险定量评估的发展趋势。

关键词: 暴雨洪水, 人口损失评估, 自然灾害系统, 脆弱性曲线

Abstract:

Under the background of global climate change and urbanization, the risk of heavy rain and floods increases rapidly, which poses great threats on the safety of the global population. It has become a focus in the field of natural disaster risk research to estimate the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods. Based on the natural disaster system theory, this article first introduces a conceptual framework for estimating the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods , which includes hazard (H)—exposure units (V)—disaster formative environment (E)—life losses (D). This framework indicates that life loss is a result of the interaction between these multiple elements. Based on existing research in China and internationally, the corresponding indicators and methods are summarized, which are presented in a multidimensional diagram of “impact indicator—loss indicator—analytical method.” This review article considers that the analysis of the multiple impacting factors-life losses relationship is at the core of the estimation of life loss from heavy rain and floods. Three types of methods for estimating the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods are reviewed, including the vulnerability curve method that focuses on the relationship of H-D,integrated multi-factor analysis method that analyzes the relationship of H-V-E-D, and disaster system simulation method that considers the process of system evolution. Considering the availability of data and effectiveness of methods, no single method can meet the needs of risk assessment of life losses. From the perspective of natural disaster system, quantitative assessment of life loss and risk induced by heavy rain and floods should develop from including single factor to multiple factors; from using statistical analysis of indicators to dynamic simulation of processes; and from employing single method to the integration of multiple methods.

Key words: heavy rain and flood, loss of life, natural disaster system, vulnerability curve

尹卫霞, 余瀚, 崔淑娟, 王静爱. 暴雨洪水灾害人口损失评估方法研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(2): 148-158.

Weixia YIN, Han YU, Shujuan CUI, Jing’ai WANG. Review on methods for estimating the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(2): 148-158.

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指标代码	指标名称及含义	指标代码	指标名称及含义
V-vp	脆弱性人口(如老年人、儿童、残疾/长期生病的人)占总人口的比例	H-du	洪水的持续时间
V-pc	洪水感知,如人口对洪水严重程度的理解	H-rv	洪水水面的上升速度
V-par	风险区人口数量	H-ve	洪水的流速
V-ft	洪水发生时间,包括假日凌晨、工作日凌晨、假日夜间、工作日夜间、白天	H-de	洪水影响区的水深
V-wt	预警时间,从预警发布到洪水到达前的时间	H-pr	降水量,如日降水量、3日降水量
E-br	建筑物抗洪能力	D-lof	人口死亡数量
E-bn	受淹房屋数量	D-fd	人口死亡率
E-bt	房屋类型,如可移动房屋、平房、一层以上楼房等	D-in	人口受伤数量
E-lu	土地利用类型,包括城市用地、农村用地、商业用地等	D-ip	人口受伤率
E-rd	到最近河流的距离	D-an	人口受灾数量
E-sl	地形条件,如坡度、坡降	D-ap	人口受灾率
H-db	洪水是否诱发泥石流次生灾害

洪水强度(FS)	预警时间 (WT) /min	人口对洪水严重程度理解(PC)	人口死亡率(可能死亡人口占风险中人口的比例)
洪水强度(FS)	预警时间 (WT) /min	人口对洪水严重程度理解(PC)	估计值	估计范围
高	-	-	0.7600	0.300~1.0000
中	没有或几乎没有预警时间	-	0.1500	0.030~0.3500
	少量预警时间	模糊理解	0.0400	0.010~0.0800
	少量预警时间	准确理解	0.0200	0.005~0.0400
	足够预警时间	模糊理解	0.0300	0.005~0.0600
	足够预警时间	准确理解	0.0100	0.002~0.0200
低	没有或几乎没有预警时间	-	0.0100	0.000~0.0200
	少量预警时间	模糊理解	0.0070	0.000~0.0150
	少量预警时间	准确理解	0.0020	0.000~0.0040
	足够预警时间	模糊理解	0.0003	0.000~0.0006
	足够预警时间	准确理解	0.0002	0.000~0.0004

暴雨洪水灾害人口损失评估方法研究进展

Review on methods for estimating the loss of life induced by heavy rain and floods

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