山洪泥石流风险评估与风险管理理论与方法

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.02.001

地理科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 137-147.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.02.001

• 本刊特稿 • 下一篇

山洪泥石流风险评估与风险管理理论与方法

崔鹏^1,³(), 邹强²

1. 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室/中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都 610041
2. 西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川绵阳 621010
3. 中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京 100101

收稿日期:2015-12-01 接受日期:2016-01-01 出版日期:2016-02-10 发布日期:2016-02-10
作者简介:
作者简介：崔鹏(1957-),男,陕西西安人,中国科学院院士,主要从事山地灾害与水土保持研究,E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流重点项目(41520104002);中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-05-01);四川省科技计划项目(2014SZ0163)

Theory and method of risk assessment and risk management of debris flows and flash floods

Peng CUI^1,³(), Qiang ZOU²

1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS, Chengdu 610041, China
2. School of Environmental and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, Sichuan, China
3. Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2015-12-01 Accepted:2016-01-01 Online:2016-02-10 Published:2016-02-10
Supported by:
Key Project of International Cooperation and Exchanges NSFC, No.41520104002;Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZZD-EW-05-01;Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Province, No.2014SZ0163

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

山洪泥石流是中国常见的自然灾害,充分认识其形成机制与潜在风险是防灾减灾的关键。本文阐述了山洪泥石流形成机理,以及风险分析与管理的方法和内容,系统认识了地表产流流量激增、土体破坏物质供给激增、沟道堵塞体级联溃决流量放大和动床侵蚀规模增大等4个山洪泥石流的形成过程,介绍了基于动力过程的山洪泥石流风险评估方法和承灾体易损性评估方法,构建了基于灾害动力过程的风险评估与风险制图方法。进而,基于风险评估结果,提出可用于具体灾害点减灾的风险管理内容和风险调控技术、灾害防治的工程与非工程措施与制技术方案。最后,重点讨论了包括灾害风险预测、临灾预案、灾害防治工程方案等内容的风险处置对策,并形成一套基于山洪泥石流动力过程的风险评估与风险管理理论与方法体系。

关键词: 泥石流, 山洪, 危险性, 易损性, 风险评估, 风险管理, 动力过程

Abstract:

Debris flows and flash floods are widely distributed mountain hazards in China. Effective hazard mitigation and prevention require understanding of hazards formation mechanisms and their potential risks. This article elaborates on the formation mechanism, risk analysis, and risk management of debris flows and flash floods. Surface runoff and material supply volume incensement, hazard scale amplification due to outburst of multiple channel blockages and bed erosion as hazard formation mechanism are discussed. Base on the dynamic process of debris flows and flash floods as well as vulnerability assessment of elements at risk, methods of risk assessment and mapping are proposed. Comprehensive engineering and non-engineering measures for hazards control shall be guided by the result of risk analysis that identifies the hazardous level of debris flows and flash floods and incorporates the vulnerability of different elements at risk. Finally, this article discusses strategies when facing risk of these hazards and puts forward a risk management system that involves the participation of local communities.

Key words: debris flow, flash flood, hazard analysis, vulnerability, risk assessment, risk management, dynamic process

崔鹏, 邹强. 山洪泥石流风险评估与风险管理理论与方法[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(2): 137-147.

Peng CUI, Qiang ZOU. Theory and method of risk assessment and risk management of debris flows and flash floods[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(2): 137-147.

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风险编号	风险等级	空间分布与危害特征
I	微度风险	山洪、泥石流分布极少,规模很小,其危险度与易损度均很低,受危害导致损毁的风险很小,一般不影响正常生产和生活。
II	低度风险	山洪、泥石流分布少,规模不大,承灾体易损度较低,遭受轻度危害,破坏小,灾害综合风险值较低,需要采取一定预防措施。
III	中度风险	山洪、泥石流分布较广泛,规模较大,承灾体易损度较高,灾害危害较重,灾害风险水平为中等,需布设灾害防治措施以保障生产和生活安全。
IV	高度风险	山洪、泥石流分布广泛,规模大,破坏力强,危险性与易损度均较高,风险很高,频繁受灾,严重影响生产和生活,应实施综合减灾工程,加强风险管理。

山洪泥石流风险评估与风险管理理论与方法

Theory and method of risk assessment and risk management of debris flows and flash floods

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