城市交通效率的多目标评价方法研究——以北京市城六区为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.01.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

高速城镇化和机动化阶段,面临与日剧增的环境压力,城市交通的多目标发展成为交通可持续发展的关键。在提升居民出行满意度的同时,降低交通碳排放是目前及未来城市交通可持续发展关注的核心目标,是城市交通效率的主要内涵。由此,本文从交通出行便捷与交通碳减排双目标综合评估的角度,提出基于中观尺度的城市交通出行满意度和交通碳排放的定量测算方法;并利用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)法探讨城市交通综合效率评价方法。对北京市城六区的实证结果显示,在三环以内地区,城市交通综合效率较高,五环以外大部分地区较差。交通综合效率较高的地区集中分布于：①西三环至西四环万寿路街道的公主坟-五棵松地区。②北三环和平里街道安贞桥附近地区。③东北三环的三里屯地区。而综合效率较差的地区大多位于城市外围,例如西北六环周边,西南五环至西南六环部分地区,以及东五环外常营地区等,交通碳排放较高是这些地区交通效率较差的主要原因。此外,交通效率的空间差异与地理空间环境的差异性呈现高度的相关。例如,交通效率较差的地区大多是高档别墅区集聚的地区,以及城市五环周边公共交通不完善的部分居住区。通勤中机动化比例较高和通勤距离较长是碳排放强度较高的主要原因。

关键词: 交通效率, 多目标综合评价, 数据包络分析, 交通碳排放, 交通满意度

Abstract:

With rapid urbanization, huge populations concentrate in cities, greatly increasing the environmental pressure of urban systems. Improving convenience of travel and at the same time reducing its negative effects on the environment, such as mitigating carbon emissions, is the key objective of present and future sustainable urban transportation development and important indicators of urban transportation efficiency. This research adopted a multi-objective evaluation method to evaluate transportation efficiency, including quantitative models for estimating carbon emission and convenience of travel and integrated methods of carbon emission and transport convenience. The six central urban districts in Beijing were chosen as our study area to test the evaluation method and explore mechanisms of transportation efficiency. The results show that transportation efficiency in Beijing differs between the central city and the outside areas. The efficiency is lower outside the 5th ring road, and higher inside the 3rd ring road. Especially, there are several centers of high and low transportation efficiency areas. The high efficiency centers are located in (1) the Gongzhufen-Wukesong area around the west 3rd and 4th ring roads; (2) the Anzhen Bridge area near the north 3rd ring road; and (3) the Sanlitun area near the east 3rd ring road. The low efficiency centers are located in the suburban areas, such as along the northwest 6th ring road, some areas between the 5th and 6th ring road in the southwest, and the Changying area outside the 5th ring road in the east. Besides, the spatial differences of transportation efficiency in Beijing have a close relationship with the geographic context. High carbon emission is the main cause of low transportation efficiency; this is particularly true in the areas where luxury-villas are located, and where public transportation service provision is insufficient. High proportion of car usage and long commuting distance are the main causes of high carbon emission. In the future, the construction of public transportation, especially the optimization of the subway system development, will improve the spatial distribution of transportation efficiency.

Key words: transportation efficiency, multi-objective evaluation, DEA, traffic carbon emission, travel convenience

季珏, 高晓路, 刘星辰. 城市交通效率的多目标评价方法研究——以北京市城六区为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(1): 118-125.

Jue JI, Xiaolu GAO, Xingchen LIU. Multi-objective evaluation of urban transportation efficiency:Take Beijing as an example[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(1): 118-125.

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交通类别	交通方式	碳排放强度/(g/(人?km))
小型汽车类	私家车、出租车、单位配车	135.0
公共汽车类	公共汽车、单位班车、物业和购物巴士	35.0
轨道交通类	地铁/城铁	9.1
个人助动类	电动车、助残助动车、轻型摩托车	8.0
其他	步行、自行车	0.0

类别	房屋主导类型	800 m内站点个数	1 km内地铁站点数	容积率	物业管理费/(元/(m²?月))	二手房价/(万元/m²)	建成时间/a
高档别墅区	高档别墅	7.9	0.4	1.5	3.7	3.6	8.1
外围中档区	商品房	6.9	0.2	1.0	0.9	2.4	13.0
历史老城区	胡同、四合院	25.6	1.8	0.6	0.2	4.9	14.7
高档高密度区	商品房	17.7	0.7	3.7	3.2	3.2	9.6
成熟完善区	商品房	20.9	1.2	1.0	0.5	3.2	17.3

环境类别	交通方式使用比例/%						平均通勤距离/km
环境类别	步行		自行车	地铁	小汽车	公共汽车	其他
高档别墅区	3.0	1.0	10.0	80.0	5.0	1.0	16.8
外围中档区	11.7	9.7	16.8	29.3	30.3	2.2	11.1
历史传统区	7.8	30.2	4.0	5.1	47	5.9	10.1
高档高密度区	12.1	21.0	10.2	15.4	38.3	3.0	13.8
成熟完善区	16.6	21.5	9.4	10.8	38.2	3.5	5.8

变量	项目	估测系数	均方差	t统计量	显著性概率
	常数项	3.041	0.072	42.080	<0.001
X1	低收入人群比例(<3000元)	0.120	0.055	2.190	0.029
X2	公交覆盖面积(800 m范围内)	0.068	0.037	1.830	0.067
X3	地铁覆盖面积(1 km范围内)	0.096	0.024	4.060	<0.001
X4	老龄化比例(>60岁)	-0.261	0.164	-1.590	0.113
X5	企业密度	0.115	0.051	2.240	0.025
X6	道路优势度	0.251	0.086	2.920	0.004

空间环境类别	很低	较低	一般	较高	很高	总计
高档别墅区	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
外围中档区	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
历史传统区	0.0	5.8	94.2	0.0	0.0	100.0
高档高密度区	0.0	18.3	81.7	0.0	0.0	100.0
成熟完善区	0.0	0.0	3.9	63.0	33.1	100.0