地理科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 4-13.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.01.002

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中国工业化、城镇化、农业现代化、信息化、绿色化“五化”协调定量评价的进展与反思

丁志伟1,2(), 张改素1,2,**(), 王发曾1,2, 康珈瑜1,2, 高岭1,2   

  1. 1. 河南大学环境与规划学院,黄河中下游数字地理重点实验室,河南 开封 475004
    2. 中原经济区三化协调发展河南省协同创新中心,郑州 450046
  • 出版日期:2016-01-31 发布日期:2016-01-31
  • 通讯作者: 张改素 E-mail:dingzhiwei1216@163.com;zhanggaisu@163.com
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:丁志伟(1983-),男,河南荥阳人,博士,讲师,主要从事城市—区域综合发展研究,E-mail: dingzhiwei1216@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41271144);河南省教育厅人文社科一般项目(2016-qn-016)

Progress on quantitative evaluation of coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, informationization , and greenization in China and reflections

Zhiwei DING1,2(), Gaisu ZHANG1,2,*(), Fazeng WANG1,2, Jiayu KANG1,2, Ling GAO1,2   

  1. 1. College of Environment & Planning, Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
    2. Henan Collaborative Innovation Center for Coordinating Industrialization, Urbanization and Agriculture Modernization in Central Economic Zone, Zhengzhou 450046, China
  • Online:2016-01-31 Published:2016-01-31
  • Contact: Gaisu ZHANG E-mail:dingzhiwei1216@163.com;zhanggaisu@163.com
  • Supported by:
    Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41271144,Humanity and Social Science Foundation of the Education Department of Henan Province, No.2016-qn-016

摘要:

工业化、城镇化、农业现代化、信息化、绿色化“五化”是社会现代化战略的重要支撑。“五化”协调定量评价是近年来一个研究热点。本文通过梳理和总结国内关于“五化”协调发展定量研究发现:①“五化”协调发展的内涵解读不一,评价时往往选择单指标,与综合指标差异很大。②权重计算以熵权法为主,层次分析法等主观评价方法较少,主客观评价结合更少。③协调水平的研究方法主要以耦合度、耦合协调度为主,其次为关系拟合与趋势预测法、DEA动态效率+HR模型、同步度模型等,并出现了系统性研究方法以及多种方法的交叉,研究方法的层次不断提高。④空间分析方法以空间分类与探索性空间数据分析为主,空间重心转移轨迹、空间格局的动态演进、空间趋势分析等研究方法逐渐出现。⑤时空分异的机理分析主要以影响因子解读与多元线性回归模型为主,空间滞后模型(SLM)、空间误差模型(SEM)、地理加权回归模型(GWR)等考虑空间因素的回归模型开始出现。但“化”的过程性、阶段性分析不足,“化”与“化”协调发展的转折点及转型机制分析不足。根据研究进展的评析,从研究范式、指标选择与权重计算、研究方法、空间分析技术、时空分异的机理解释等方面进行了反思,提出了加强“五化”协调发展的内在机理与评价维度分析、加强指标体系构建和权重设置的合理性研究、采用多元的“五化”协调度评价方法、加强空间分析技术的综合应用、促进定量解释与定性解释的结合等建议。

关键词: 工业化, 城镇化, 农业现代化, 信息化, 绿色化, “五化”, 进展, 反思

Abstract:

Industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, informationization, and greenization (the so-called "Five Modernizations") are an important support for the modernization of the Chinese society, and therefore many scholars have conducted quantitative evaluation of the coordinated development of the "Five Modernizations". By examining the Chinese research on quantitative evaluation of the "Five Modernizations", this review obtained the following findings. First, whether using single indicators or comprehensive index, existing research differs on how to construct the index system due to different interpretations of the "Five Modernizations". Second, most studies choose the entropy method when calculating the indicator weights; fewer choose the subjective method such as the AHP; and very few choose the combination of subjective and objective methods. Third, the coordinated development evaluation methods focus primarily on coupling and coordinated coupling models, relation and forecasting methods, synchronization models based on deviating from the ideal spatial position, DEA dynamic efficiency and HR models, "development-difference-interaction level" models, and split models. Recently, systematic and mixed research methods are emerging and sophistication of these methods are improving. Fourth, spatial analysis methods of spatial pattern and spatial correlation are widely used in many studies. Methods such as track shift of spatial gravity, dynamic evolution of spatial pattern, and spatial trend analysis are gradually appeared in some recent articles. Fifth, most studies choose the methods of interpreting the main impacting factors and multiple linear regression models to analyze the influencing mechanisms of spatiotemporal patterns. Some recent studies use spatial regression models such as SLM, SEM, and GWR. Based on the literature review, we make some reflections on the research paradigm, index system, weight derivation, evaluation methods of coordination level, spatial analysis, and influencing mechanism interpretation. We recommend to strengthen the analysis of the internal driving mechanism and perspectives of evaluation, improve research on the evaluation index system and weighing method, adopt multiple evaluation methods of coordination degree, and promote the comprehensive application of spatial analysis technologies and integration of qualitative and quantitative interpretations.

Key words: industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, informationization, greenization, Five Modernizations, progress, reflection