长江经济带新型城镇化协调性的趋同与差异研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.11.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近10年来,城镇化进程中暴露的很多问题可以归结为城镇化的协调性问题,本文以“人地关系”理论为基础,从城乡、产城、城镇化区域和城镇化与资源环境协调发展4个方面来衡量新型城镇化的协调性。并以长江经济带为研究区域,运用空间杜宾面板模型(spatial Durbin panel data model, SDPDM)从经验上考察新型城镇化协调性的俱乐部与条件趋同现象,发现制约长江经济带东、中、西部新型城镇化协调性的因素并不一致：东部城市应进一步加强城镇化同资源环境的协调,促进区域间的协同发展;中部城市应改变大拆大建的城市建设模式,着重发展服务业和增强城市间的合作;西部城市应进一步推进市场开放进程,减少政府对市场的干预和城市建设中的攀比,发展服务业和促进本地经济增长。同时,限制城市人口增长的政策对于新型城镇化协调性不存在显著影响,而放开户籍管制,则会促进人口向城市集聚;无论从促进第三产业发展、产城融合或是城乡协调发展,均会对新型城镇化协调性起到正向作用。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 协调性, 条件收敛, 空间杜宾面板模型, 长江经济带

Abstract:

Over the past decade, many problems that surfaced in the process of urbanization can be attributed to uncoordinated development. Based on a human-environment relationship perspective, this article analyzes coordinated development of the new urbanization process using indicators concerning the coordination of urban and rural , urban and industrial, intra-regional, and resources/environment and urban developments. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as a case, this study examines the convergence and conditional convergence of the coordination using the spatial Durbin panel data model empirically. The result shows that factors affecting the coordinated development of the new urbanization process vary between the eastern, central, and western areas of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. To facilitate the coordinated development of the new urbanization process, the eastern areas should promote the coordination between urbanization and resources/environment, and promote the coordinated development among regions; the central areas should change the demolition-construction urban development model and focus on the development of services and increase cooperation between cities; the western areas should continue the market opening-up process, reduce government intervention in the market and competition with regard to urban development, and develop services and promote local economic growth. Policies limiting urban population growth has had no significant effect on the coordinated development of the new urbanization process, but relaxing the household registration restrictions will increase migration to urban areas, which will have positive effects on the coordinated development of the new urbanization process with regard to the development of tertiary industry, integration of industrial and urban development, and coordination of urban and rural development.

Key words: new urbanization, coordination, conditional convergence, spatial Durbin panel data model, Yangtze River Economic Belt

李小帆, 邓宏兵, 马静. 长江经济带新型城镇化协调性的趋同与差异研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(11): 1419-1429.

Xiaofan LI, Hongbing DENG, Jing MA. Convergence and divergence of the coordinated development of the new urbanization process in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(11): 1419-1429.

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类别	指标	方向	标准
城乡协调发展	城乡收入基尼系数	负向	0.40
城乡协调发展	城乡恩格尔系数之比	负向	1
	公路密度	正向	1.75
	一般预算支出中农业支出比重	正向	0.05
产城协调发展	建成区就业密度	正向	0.48
	建成区GDP密度	正向	15.93
	第二产业偏离度	正向	-0.15
	第三产业偏离度	正向	0.12
区域协调发展	城镇人口局部Moran's I指数	正向	计算所得最大值
区域协调发展	城镇人口集中度指数	正向	1
城镇化与资源环境协调发展	城镇化率与工业二氧化硫排放量协调度指数	负向	1
	城镇化率与工业废水排放量协调度指数	负向	1
	城镇化率与建成区绿化覆盖率协调度指数	正向	1

年份	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Moran's I	-0.0168	-0.0031	-0.0029	0.0342	0.0251	0.0718	0.1130	0.1091	0.1216	0.1243
Z值	-0.5667	0.5144	0.5268	3.4339	2.7245	6.3814	9.6065	9.3084	10.2863	10.4928

年份	东部贡献/%	中部贡献/%	西部贡献/%	东中西部之间的差异贡献/%	泰尔系数
2003	15.1432	53.9499	30.8255	0.0817	0.0377
2004	14.7397	39.1398	43.8062	2.3140	0.0388
2005	19.8347	37.9144	41.1884	1.0624	0.0306
2006	25.0675	31.8478	37.1513	5.9334	0.0352
2007	21.6396	43.8868	27.3490	7.1248	0.0426
2008	20.8235	36.2495	25.7418	17.1855	0.0396
2009	19.3329	35.4902	18.0110	27.1656	0.0363
2010	12.0975	42.0438	22.8969	22.9616	0.0689
2011	13.7251	36.3628	19.5741	30.3378	0.0675
2012	13.7163	35.1591	19.9693	31.1553	0.0692

解释变量	混合效应模型	个体固定效应模型	时期固定效应	个体时期固定效应
截距	-0.2687^*** (-4.2762)
协调度2003	-0.1379^*** (-16.3905)	0.0111 (0.0000)	-0.1368^*** (-16.6025)	-0.1364 (0.0000)
总人口增加	-0.0926 (-1.0473)	0.0117 (0.1575)	-0.0829 (-0.9531)	-0.0362 (-0.4959)
城区面积增加	-0.1131^*** (-4.8014)	-0.0817^*** (-4.2056)	-0.1073^*** (-4.5899)	-0.0808^*** (-4.2477)
第二产业比重	-0.0497^*** (-4.5390)	-0.0833^** (-2.5690)	-0.0565^*** (-4.7306)	-0.0897^*** (-2.8483)
第三产业比重	0.0273^** (2.2254)	0.1260^*** (3.8062)	0.0224^*** (1.8601)	0.1121^*** (3.4109)
开放程度	0.0029 (1.1524)	-0.0079^* (-1.7680)	0.0029 (1.1899)	-0.0070 (-1.6191)
政府对市场干预	-0.0734^*** (-10.2113)	-0.0180 (-1.1599)	-0.0875^*** (-8.7852)	0.0131 (0.7231)
经济水平	0.0840^*** (8.9005)	0.0338 (1.4867)	0.0940^*** (9.2340)	0.1475^*** (4.6048)
σ²	0.0064	0.004	0.0061	0.0037
R²	0.3353	0.0966	0.3386	0.0745
Logl	1049.0000	1271.5000	1073.5000	1309.8000
空间滞后LM检验	61.9510^***	128.3787^***	5.7840^**	2.1539
空间误差LM检验	94.5670^***	127.2997^***	6.6368^**	4.5727^**
空间滞后稳健LM检验	0.2301	5.5276^***	0.0667	7.2985^***
空间误差稳健LM检验	32.8462^***	4.4485^**	0.9195	9.7172^***

解释变量	东部地区	中部地区	西部地区
解释变量	个体时期双固定效应(偏差修正)	个体时期双固定空间随机效应	个体时期双固定空间随机效应
W×log(Y)	-0.6656^** (-2.4098)	0.1400 (0.8375)	-1.0687^*** (-3.5453)
协调度2003	0.5098 (0.0000)	-0.1539^*** (-7.6149)	-0.0516^* (-1.9338)
总人口增加	-0.9221 (-1.2708)	0.0744 (0.9361)	-0.3150 (-1.0042)
城区面积增加	0.0281 (0.8600)	-0.0774^*** (2.9411)	-0.1540^*** (-3.3955)
第二产业比重	-0.8880^*** (-4.6050)	-0.1300^*** (-3.3794)	-0.0454^* (-1.8509)
第三产业比重	-0.4873^*** (-2.9855)	-0.0112 (-0.2692)	0.0855^*** (3.3398)
开放程度	-0.0017 (-0.2920)	0.0004 (0.0740)	-0.0005 (-0.0826)
政府对市场干预	0.0008 (0.0131)	-0.0776^*** (-3.1687)	-0.0848^*** (-3.2824)
经济水平	0.5943^*** (7.2872)	0.0895^*** (3.8021)	0.0851^*** (3.1364)
W×协调度2003	7.5011 (0.0000)	-0.5890^** (-2.3188)	0.2329 (0.7363)
W×总人口增加	-5.4781 (-1.0838)	-0.4057 (-0.9836)	0.6046 (0.2448)
W×城区面积增加	0.5948^** (2.3018)	-0.3400 (1.4928)	-0.5192 (-1.5185)
W×第二产业比重	4.0213^*** (2.9974)	0.4551 (1.3663)	-0.2405 (-1.3018)
W×第三产业比重	1.9160^* (1.7655)	0.2144 (0.6848)	0.7449^*** (3.6129)
W×开放程度	-0.0174 (-0.3080)	-0.0003 (-0.0054)	-0.0245 (-0.4359)
W×政府对市场干预	0.3267 (0.8105)	0.1794 (1.0423)	0.0281 (0.1543)
W×经济水平	-1.1607^** (-2.0869)	0.0418 (0.2842)	-0.1387 (-0.5082)
φ²		0.4536^*** (7.7667)	0.6824^*** (6.1728)
σ²	0.002	0.0034	0.0053
R²	0.7698	0.6229	0.3829
Logl	397.30447	624.07887	287.7381
空间滞后Wald检验	38.2743^***	12.1694	22.1213^***
空间滞后LR检验	40.8388^***	11.6022	19.572^**
空间误差Wald检验	41.0476^***	13.0872	17.7218^**
空间误差LR检验	44.6496^***	11.5514	18.812^**