地理科学进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (10): 1229-1240.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.10.003

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

IPCC AR5全球气候模式对1996-2005年中国气温模拟精度评价

孙侦1,2, 贾绍凤1,*(), 吕爱锋1, 朱文彬1,2, 高彦春1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-01 接受日期:2015-05-01 出版日期:2015-10-20 发布日期:2015-10-20
  • 通讯作者: 贾绍凤 E-mail:jiasf@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:孙侦(1985-),女,河北邯郸人,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究,E-mail:040400126@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41471463)

Assesment on precision of temperature simulated by the IPCC AR5 GCMs in China, 1996-2005

Zhen SUN1,2, Shaofeng JIA1,*(), Aifeng LV1, Wenbin ZHU1,2, Yanchun GAO1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2015-03-01 Accepted:2015-05-01 Online:2015-10-20 Published:2015-10-20
  • Contact: Shaofeng JIA E-mail:jiasf@igsnrr.ac.cn

摘要:

本文利用中国660个站点逐日地面温度资料,评估了参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次报告(IPCC AR5)的9个全球气候模式(Global Climate Models, GCMs)及多模式集合(Multi-Model Ensemble, MME)对中国地区气温的模拟精度。结果表明:9个IPCC AR5全球气候模式和MME模拟的中国地区1996-2005年日平均气温与气象站点观测值的相关系数都大于0.86,表明相关性较好;气候模式模拟的中国东南部地区1996-2005年日平均气温的模拟精度较高,模拟值的偏差、平均相对误差、平均绝对误差和均方根误差都比较小;而西部地区的模拟效果较差,模拟精度较低。综合考虑模式模拟值与站点观测值的相关系数、偏差、平均相对误差、平均绝对误差和均方根误差发现,MME在中国地区的气温模拟精度优于大部分单个模式。

关键词: IPCC AR5, 全球气候模式, 气温, 精度, 日尺度

Abstract:

This article evaluates the precision of the temperature simulated by nine IPCC AR5 (the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GCMs (Global Climate Models) and the multi-model ensemble (MME), based on the observed temperature of 660 stations in China from 1996 to 2005. The results show that the correlation coefficients between the average daily temperature simulated by GCMs and station observations in China during 1996-2005 were very high, all above 0.86. The precision of the simulated average daily temperature in the southeast by the 10 models was higher than that in the west, judged by the lower Biases, mean relative errors (MREs), mean absolute errors (MAEs), and root mean square errors (RMSEs) in the southeast as compared to those in the west. The precision of the simulated temperature by IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M was poorer than that of the others—specially, the Biases, MREs, and RMSEs of the simulation result by IPSL-CM5A-LR , the Biases and RMSEs of the simulation result by MRI-CGCM3, and MREs and RMSEs of the simulation result by NorESM1-M, were larger. Taken into account the Biases, MREs, MAEs, and RMSEs, the simulation precision of MME was the highest.

Key words: IPCC AR5, Global Climate Models, temperature, precision, daily scale