城市化对极端高温事件影响研究进展

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.10.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目前有关城市热岛效应的时空分布特征及其对气温变化趋势的影响已有大量研究,但对于极端高温—热岛效应相互作用、城市化对高温热胁迫及其健康后果的影响等研究还不够深入,在进行未来气候变化预估时也很少考虑城市的影响。在气候变化、中国城市化快速发展和人口老龄化的背景下,这将严重低估城市未来的变暖幅度以及城市极端高温的健康风险。随着近年来气候变暖所导致的高温热浪事件频发,城市化对极端高温事件的影响引起了广泛关注。本文对国内外陆续开展的城市热岛效应影响极端高温及其长期趋势的观测事实、城市极端高温数值模拟、城市高温期间超额死亡率的流行病学研究等方面所取得的成果进行了系统性的总结和评述。大部分观测和数值模拟研究都发现,城市热岛效应加剧了城市极端高温发生的范围和强度,增加了城市居民的高温健康风险,对城市极端高温的长期上升趋势也有重要贡献;流行病学研究表明,城市化引起的热岛效应对极端高温期间的死亡率有着重要影响。最后,对城市化影响极端高温未来的研究方向进行了探讨。

关键词: 城市化, 气候变化, 极端高温, 超额死亡率

Abstract:

Extreme heat events (EHEs) are a major cause of weather-related deaths. People who live in cities may be more vulnerable to EHE because the urban heat island (UHI) effect causes a slower cooling process at night, and thus provides little relief from the heat stresses of the day. Although UHI is a well-documented phenomenon, relatively little information in the literature is available about its characteristics during EHEs. Moreover, urban warming in addition to greenhouse gas-induced warming has not been taken into account explicitly in climate change simulations to date. Under the background of global climate change and rapid urbanization in China, the magnitude of future warming and the health risk of EHEs may be significantly underestimated in urban areas. With the forecast of global warming continuing into the foreseeable future, extreme heat events will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting with climate change. The impacts of urbanization on extreme heat events have attracted an increasing attention in recent years. The potential exposure of urban populations to climate change will be enhanced by local factors with the development of urbanization. This review systematically collates research results in three main areas: observational evidence of trends in EHEs in relation to urbanization, numerical simulation experiments of the impact of urbanization on temperature and heat stress during EHEs, and epidemiological study of excess mortality associated with urbanization during EHEs. Most observational and simulation studies show that urban heat island results in an increase in the extent and intensity of extreme heat in cities. Inhabitants of urban areas may experience increasing heat-related health risk. Heat island also significantly contributes to the long-term increasing trends in urban EHEs. The epidemiological studies reveal that heat island caused by urbanization has great impacts on excess mortality in cities during EHEs. Finally, future avenues of research are speculated, including: synergistic effect of extreme heat with other environmental factors, heat-health warning systems, mapping extreme heat health risk, and future projection of EHEs due to climate change and urban growth.

Key words: urbanization, climate change, extreme heat, excess mortality

杨续超, 陈葆德, 胡可嘉. 城市化对极端高温事件影响研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(10): 1219-1228.

Xuchao YANG, Baode CHEN, Kejia HU. A review of impacts of urbanization on extreme heat events[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(10): 1219-1228.

图/表 1

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站名	郑祚芳(2011)20站	王君等(2013)20站	杨萍等(2013)14站	张雷等(2011)6站	司鹏等(2009)14站
北京观象台	城市	城市	城市	城市	城市
海淀	城市	城市	城市	/	/
丰台	城市	城市	城市	/	郊外
石景山	城市	城市	郊区	/	/
朝阳	城市	近郊	城市	/	郊外
顺义	近郊	近郊	郊区	/	郊外
怀柔	近郊	乡村	郊区	/	郊外
平谷	近郊	乡村	郊区	/	郊外
通州	近郊	城市	郊区	/	郊外
大兴	近郊	近郊	郊区	/	郊外
门头沟	近郊	城市	郊区	/	乡村
房山	近郊	近郊	郊区	/	乡村
昌平	近郊	城市	郊区	/	郊外
汤河口	远郊	山地	/	农村	/
密云	远郊	乡村	郊区	/	/
上甸子	远郊	山地	/	农村	山区农村
斋堂	远郊	山地	/	农村	/
霞云岭	远郊	山地	/	农村	山区农村
延庆	远郊	山地	/	/	湖边
佛爷顶	远郊	山地	/	农村	/

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[2]	邓国富, 李明启. 树轮密度对气候的响应及重建研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(2): 343-356.
[3]	敖雪, 翟晴飞, 崔妍, 周晓宇, 沈历都, 赵春雨, 宁喜龙. 基于EOF分解的辽宁省城市化气候效应检测[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(9): 1532-1543.
[4]	周美君, 李飞, 邵佳琪, 杨海娟. 气候变化背景下中国玉米生产潜力变化特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(3): 443-453.
[5]	宋臻, 史兴民. 雨养农业区农户的气候变化适应行为及影响因素路径分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(3): 461-473.
[6]	张学珍, 郑景云, 郝志新. 中国主要经济区的近期气候变化特征评估[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(10): 1609-1618.
[7]	王依茹, 王琛, 曾金迪. 个体与环境交互作用下中国成人超重肥胖情况变化趋势及影响因素研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(1): 100-110.
[8]	谢正辉, 刘斌, 延晓冬, 孟春雷, 徐宪立, 刘宇, 秦佩华, 贾炳浩, 谢瑾博, 李锐超, 王龙欢, 王妍, 陈思. 应对气候变化的城市规划实施效应评估研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(1): 120-131.
[9]	王立, 张健君. 个体-家庭地方认同迭代的生命历程空间叙事[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(6): 896-903.
[10]	周玉科. 青藏高原植被NDVI对气候因子响应的格兰杰效应分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(5): 718-730.
[11]	方佳毅, 史培军. 全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(5): 625-636.
[12]	温康民, 任国玉, 李娇, 任玉玉, 孙秀宝, 周雅清, 张爱英. 国家基本/基准站地面气温资料城市化偏差订正[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(4): 600-611.
[13]	张会, 李铖, 程炯, 吴志峰, 吴艳艳. 基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(2): 175-190.
[14]	赵彦茜, 肖登攀, 柏会子, 陶福禄. 中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(2): 224-235.
[15]	丁凯熙, 张利平, 宋晓猛, 佘敦先, 夏军. 北京地区汛期降雨时空演变特征及城市化影响研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(12): 1917-1932.