地理科学进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 976-986.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.08.005

• 城市地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京市土地利用空间格局演化模拟及预测

韩会然(), 杨成凤, 宋金平*()   

  1. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京 100875
  • 出版日期:2015-08-25 发布日期:2015-08-25
  • 通讯作者: 宋金平 E-mail:hanhuiran@163.com;jinpingsong@163.com
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:韩会然(1987-),男,山东聊城人,博士研究生,研究方向为城市地理与区域发展研究,E-mail: hanhuiran@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271132);国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201211001)

Simulation and projection of land-use change in Beijing under different scenarios

HAN Huiran(), YANG Chengfeng, SONG Jinping*()   

  1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Online:2015-08-25 Published:2015-08-25
  • Contact: SONG Jinping E-mail:hanhuiran@163.com;jinpingsong@163.com

摘要:

土地利用空间格局的演化模拟可定量地从空间尺度揭示区域土地利用变化的驱动因素,是厘清未来时期内土地变化的重要途径。基于CLUE-S模型,以北京市为研究案例,结合1985、2000和2010年三期土地利用数据,运用Logistic逐步回归方法识别了北京市各种土地利用类型演化的驱动因素,对北京市土地利用空间格局进行模拟。在此基础上,基于北京市社会经济发展、土地利用规划、资源禀赋及生态保护等不同情景,对北京市2020年土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟及预测。结果表明:①不同的时期内,驱动因子对不同土地利用类型的影响呈现差异性,其中交通因素及社会经济因素对土地利用类型的转化率影响较显著,坡度对各个土地利用类型的影响较大。②通过对2010年北京市土地利用变化的模拟结果来看,Kappa指数为87.03%,说明预测结果与实际土地利用情况有较好的一致性。③预测结果显示,北京市的城市发展均表现为继续向外扩展,且以东南、东北为主要扩展方向,但扩张的程度存在差异。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 空间格局, 情景模拟, CLUE-S模型, 北京市

Abstract:

Land-use change is a dynamic process through which human and natural systems interact and the link between social economic activities and ecological processes, and plays an important role in the understanding of human-environment relationship. It has important implications for land management, therefore exploring the many factors influencing land use and land cover has been the focus of scientific study across multiple disciplines, locations, and scales. Simulation of land use spatial pattern under different scenarios may reveal the driving factors of regional land-use change spatially, which is an important way to analyze future land-use demand. In this study, using Beijing as an example we examined characteristics of land-use change and simulated future land-use demand by a CLUE-S model, and identified related driving factors using a Logistic model combine with land use data extracted from remote sensing images in 1985, 2000, and 2010. We simulated the land use requirements of Beijing in 2020 under different scenarios based on economic and social development, land use planning, resources and ecological protection and other conditions. The results are as follows: (1) different driving factors resulted in some different changes in various land-use types. Transportation and socioeconomic factors may have played an important role in the conversion of land-use types especially through affecting accessibility to the administrative center and level of urbanization. The effect of topographic factors, slope in particular, on land-use types is clear, with higher slope conducive to forest land and lower slope for other land-use types.(2) Consistency between the projected and actual land-use situations is high—the kappa index is 0.87. (3) Comparison of simulated land-use changes under various scenarios shows that future land use differs under different scenarios. Spatial pattern of land use in Beijing is optimized to a certain degree under the ecological protection and water resources conservation scenario, which promotes rational expansion of construction land. Under the natural development scenario land use should be based on the Land Use Plan to ensure the sustainability of land resources by setting urban growth boundary and so on.

Key words: Land-use change, spatial pattern, scenario simulation, CLUE-S model, Beijing