地理科学进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 918-925.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.07.013

• 灾害与疾病 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国地震灾害中"伤亡比"指标的估算

吴绍洪1,2, 靳京1,2,3,*, 郑景云1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-01 修回日期:2015-04-01 出版日期:2015-07-10 发布日期:2015-07-10
  • 通讯作者: 靳京
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吴绍洪(1961-),男,广东潮州人,研究员,博导,主要研究方向为自然地理学综合研究,E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAK05B04)

Estimation of the ratio of injured people to fatalities in earthquakes in China

Shaohong WU1, Jing JIN1,2,*, Jingyun ZHENG1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2014-10-01 Revised:2015-04-01 Online:2015-07-10 Published:2015-07-10
  • Contact: Jing JIN

摘要:

地震灾害中的"伤亡比"指标可以在一定程度上反映国家或地区地震灾害人口脆弱性的差异,还可用于地震受伤人数的估算,对地震应急救援具有重要参考意义。现有的研究多以一个固定的数值来代表所有地震中的伤亡比,但是数据分析显示,伤亡比在不同地震灾害中存在明显差异。因此,本文在对世界和中国地震灾害中人员伤亡数量的相关性分析基础上,利用1989年以来中国地震灾害的伤亡数据,通过回归分析构建了地震灾害人员受伤—死亡的回归曲线,并在曲线验证基础上,估算不同死亡量级上"伤亡比"。结果显示:①世界和中国地震灾害受伤—死亡人数间均存在显著正相关关系;②中国地震灾害人员伤亡数量之间较符合幂函数关系,死亡量级越大,伤亡比越小。本文构建的地震灾害伤亡回归曲线以及不同死亡量级下的伤亡比估算值可为地震中受伤人数的估算提供参考。

关键词: 地震灾害, 损失评估, 伤亡比, 回归分析, 中国

Abstract:

The ratio of the number of injured people to fatalities in earthquakes not only reflects the vulnerability of countries or regions in earthquakes, but also is useful for the estimation of injured people, which is of great importance for emergency rescue. The ratio of injured people to fatalities is often represented by a fixed number in existing research, but disparity of these ratios from different earthquakes is clear. By analyzing the correlation between the number of injured people in earthquakes and fatalities, this study establishes regression models using the injured people and fatalities data in China since 1989. The models are tested and used to predict the ratio of injured people to fatalities in earthquakes with different levels of fatalities. The results show that: (1) There is a significant positive correlation between the number of injured people and fatalities in earthquakes, not only for China, but also worldwide. (2) Power function can better reflect the relationship between the number of injured people in earthquakes and fatalities in China. Large fatalities are always accompanied by low ratio of injured people to fatalities. The models and the calculated ratio of injured people to fatalities in this article provide an alternative method to estimate the number of injured people in earthquakes.

Key words: seismic disaster, loss assessment, the ratio of injured people to fatalities, regression analysis, China