1995-2012年中国突发性环境污染事件时空演化特征及影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.06.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用ESDA空间统计分析方法和Matlab空间面板计量模型,对1995-2012年中国各地区发生的环境污染事件的时空演化特征和影响因素进行分析。结果表明：环境污染事件呈先动态增长后逐渐下降的趋势,水污染和大气污染事件是主要事故类型;环境污染事件发生的高频风险区域亦在逐渐减少,东南沿海及四川、湖南等中西部区仍有局部集聚的态势;1995-2000年中国的环境污染事件总体呈随机分布状态,2001年后则开始呈现集聚的特征;Moran散点图表明,局部的空间集聚先增强后减弱,环境污染事件近年来集中在泛长三角地区,高高地区为江浙沪;环境污染事件的重心转移方向主要为西南和东北,两个快速转移时期分别为1998-2001和2004-2007年,这与区域的产业转移和高负荷的污染排放压力有关;环境污染事件的发生与污染物的达标排放和控制、经济发展阶段及环境治理投入、环境监管能力、空间效应等因素有关。空间效应主要体现在空间邻近效应和空间溢出效应。未来应注重环境污染事故的区域联防联控,制定若干跨界污染事故的应急响应联动机制及环境污染区域联防联控机制。

关键词: 突发性环境污染事件, 探索性空间分析方法, 时空演化特征, 空间效应, 中国

Abstract:

Understanding the complexity of spatiotemporal variations of sudden environmental pollution incidents and quantifying the contribution of their driving factors are important for effective environmental management in China. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of sudden environmental pollution incidents and influencing factors in China for the period of 1995-2012 based on the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and Spatial Econometric Panel Model. The results indicate that: the frequency of environmental pollution incidents was gradually declining after the initial fluctuating growth and the high-frequency areas were mainly concentrated in eastern and southwestern China; ESDA analysis revealed that China's environmental pollution incidents were random distributed from 1995 to 2000 and agglomerated after 2001; in recent years the high-frequency area focused on the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region; the high-frequency center moved rapidly in 1998-2001 and 2004-2007 as a consequence of the regional industrial transfer and high pollution discharge pressure, toward southwest and northeast. Environmental pollution incident was different from pollutant emissions and is not an inevitable outcome of economic development. It is mainly related to the level of pollution control, government environmental supervision ability, spatial effect, and other factors. As one of the most important factors influencing environmental pollution incidents, spatial effect mainly included the spatial proximity effect and spillover effect. In order to control environmental pollution incidents effectively, the government should formulate joint transboundary pollution incidents emergency response mechanisms within regions based on regional pollution diffusion and transfer.

Key words: sudden environmental pollution incidents, ESDA, temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, spatial effect, China

丁镭, 黄亚林, 刘云浪, 刘超, 程胜高. 1995-2012年中国突发性环境污染事件时空演化特征及影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(6): 749-760.

Lei DING, Yalin HUANG, Yunlang LIU, Chao LIU, Shenggao CHENG. Spatiotemporal variability of sudden environmental pollution incidents and influencing factors in China, 1995-2012[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(6): 749-760.

图/表 9

图1

图2

图3

表1

图4

表2

图5

表3

表4

参考文献 33

1	范小杉, 罗宏. 2012. 中国突发环境事件时间序列分析[J]. 中国环境管理, (4): 11-16.
	[Fan X S, Luo H.2012. Time series analysis on suddenly happened environmental accident in China[J]. China Environmental Management, (4):11-16.]
2	高超, 金凤君, 傅娟, 等. 2013. 1996-2011年南非人口空间分布格局与演变特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 32(7): 1167-1176.
	[Gao C, Jin F J, Fu J, et al.2013. Spatial pattern of population and its evolution in South Africa during 1996-2011[J]. Progress in Geography, 32(7): 1167-1176.]
3	韩素芹,蔡旭晖,李培彦,等. 2009. 天津市突发事故条件下大气污染的应急模拟[J].中国环境科学, 29(9): 919-923.
	[Han S Q, Cai X H, Li P Y, et al.2009. Numerical simulation of emergency response to atmospheric pollution accident in Tianjin[J]. China Environmental Science, 29(9):919-923.]
4	匡文慧, 张树文, 张养贞, 等. 2005. 1900年以来长春市土地利用空间扩张机理分析[J]. 地理学报, 60(5): 841-850.
	[Kuang W H, Zhang S W, Zhang Y Z, et al.2005. Analysis of urban land utilization spatial expansion mechanism in Changchun City since 1900[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 60(5): 841-850.]
5	李光强, 曾绍琴, 邓敏, 等. 2013. 重心转移曲线在时空演化模式表达中的应用[J]. 武汉大学学报: 信息科学版, 38(8): 940-944.
	[Li G Q, Zeng S Q, Deng M, et al.2013. Employing a centriod transferring curve to spatio-temporal evolution patterns[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 38(8): 940-944.]
6	李静, 吕永龙, 贺桂珍, 等. 2008. 我国突发性环境污染事故时空格局及影响研究[J]. 环境科学, 29(9): 2684-2688.
	[Li J, Lv Y L, He G Z, et al.2008. Spatial and temporal changes of emerging environmental pollution accidents and impact factors in China[J]. Environmental Science, 29(9): 2684-2688.]
7	李瑞, 吴殿宇, 鲍捷, 等. 2013. 高级科学人才集聚成长的时空格局演化及其驱动机制: 基于中国科学院院士的典型分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 32(7): 1124-1138.
	[Li R, Wu D Y, Bao J, et al.2013. Evolution of temporal and spatial pattern and driving mechanisms of agglomerative growth of senior science talents: a case study of academicians of CAS[J]. Progress in Geography, 32(7): 1124-1138.]
8	王晓, 郝芳华, 程红光, 等. 2008. 复杂地形高含硫输气管道环境风险事故模拟[J]. 中国环境科学, 28(1):78-82.
	[Wang X, Hao F H, Cheng H G, et al.2008. Simulation of environmental risk accident of high sulfur-content gas pipeline in complex terrain[J]. China Environmental Science, 28(1): 78-82.]
9	肖晓琴, 肖云. 2008. 我国近年重大环境污染事故归因分析[J]. 江西化工, (2): 43-46.
	[Xiao X Q, Xiao Y.2008. Attribute analysis to serious environmental pollution of our country in recent years[J]. Jiangxi Chemical Industry, (2): 43-46.]
10	薛鹏丽, 曾维华. 2011. 上海市突发环境污染事故风险区划[J]. 中国环境科学, 31(10): 1743-1750.
	[Xue P L, Zeng W H.2011. Shanghai environmental accidents risk regionalization[J]. China Environmental Science, 31(10): 1743-1750.]
11	杨洁, 毕军, 张海燕, 等. 2010. 中国环境污染事故发生与经济发展的动态关系[J]. 中国环境科学, 30(4):571-576.
	[Yang J, Bi J, Zhang H Y, et al.2010. Evolvement of the relationship between environmental pollution accident and economic growth in China[J]. China Environmental Science, 30(4): 571-576.]
12	杨洁, 黄蕾, 李凤英, 等. 2013. 中国1991-2010年环境污染事故频数动态变化因素分解[J]. 中国环境科学, 33(5): 931-937.
	[Yang J, Huang L, Li F Y, et al.2013. Decomposition analysis on the variation of China's annual environmental pollution accidents, 1991-2010[J]. China Environmental Science, 33(5): 931-937.]
13	杨万江, 陈文佳. 2011. 中国水稻生产空间布局变迁及影响因素分析[J]. 经济地理, 31(12): 2086-2093.
	[Yang W J, Chen W J.2011. Studies on the spatial distribution changing of China's rice production and its influencing factors[J]. Economic Geography, 31(12): 2086-2093.]
14	杨小林, 李义玲. 2014. 长江流域跨界水污染事故应急响应联动机制[J]. 水资源保护, 30(2): 78-81.
	[Yang X L, Li Y L.2014. Cooperating mechanism of emergency response to cross-boundary water pollution accidents in Yangtze River Basin[J]. Water Resources Protection, 30(2): 78-81.]
15	杨娅, 马俊伟, 刘仁志. 2012. 上海市突发性环境事件时空格局及影响因素分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 22(5): 105-109.
	[Yang Y, Ma J W, Liu R Z.2012. Incidents and its causative factors in Shanghai[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 22(5): 105-109.]
16	杨振山, 蔡建明. 2010. 空间统计学进展及其在经济地理研究中的应用[J]. 地理科学进展, 29(6): 757-768.
	[Yang Z S, Cai J M.2010. Progress of spatial statistics and its application in economic geography[J]. Progress in Geography, 29(6): 757-768.]
17	周扬, 李宁, 吴文祥, 等. 2014. 1982-2010年中国县域经济发展时空格局演变[J]. 地理科学进展, 33(1): 102-113.
	[Zhou Y, Li N, Wu W X, et al.2014. Evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of county economic development in China during 1982-2010[J]. Progress in Geography, 33(1):102-113.]
18	Anselin L.1988. Spatial econometrics: methods and models[M]. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
19	Elhorst J P.2010. Spatial Panel Data Models[M]//Fischer M M, Getis A. Handbook of applied spatial analysis. Berlin, Germany: Springer: 377-407.
20	Gong J X.2002.Clarifying the standard deviational ellipse[J]. Geographical Analysis, 34(2): 155-167.
21	He G Z, Zhang L, Lu Y L, et al.2011. Managing major chemical accidents in China: towards effective risk information[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 187(1-3):171-181.
22	Hsueh Y H, Lee J, Beltz L.2012. Spatio-temporal patterns of dengue fever cases in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, 2003-2008[J]. Applied Geography, 34(2): 587-594.
23	Lee B C, Jeong J H, Na M G, et al.2006. Effects of accident management strategy on the severe accident environmental conditions[J]. Annals of Nuclear Energy, 33(1): 13-21.
24	Lennox S D, Foy R H, Smith R V, et al.1998. A comparison of agricultural water pollution incidents in Northern Ireland with those in England and Wales[J]. Water Research, 32(3): 649-656.
25	Mohd R S, Charles J W, David S, et al.2014. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 264(2-3): 560-569.
26	Tobler W.1970. A computer movie simulation urban growth in the Detroit region[J]. Economic Geography, 46(2): 234-240.
27	Wiens J A, Parker K R.1995. Analyzing the effects of accidental environmental impacts: approaches and assumptions[J]. Ecological Applications, 5(4):1069-1083.
28	Wirtz K W, Baumberger N, Adam S, et al.2007. Oil spill impact minimization under uncertainty: evaluating contingency simulations of the Prestige accident[J]. Ecological Economics, 61(2-3):417-428.
29	Wong D W S.1999. Several fundamentals in implementing spatial statistics in GIS: using centrographic measures as examples[J]. Geographic Information Sciences, 5(2): 163-173.
30	Xue P L, Zeng W H.2011. Trends of environmental accidents and impact factors in China[J]. Frontiers Environmental Science & Engineering in China, 5(2) : 266-276.
31	Yu H, Zhang T Z.2009. Evaluation of major polluting accidents in China: results and perspectives[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 168(2-3): 670-673.
32	Zeng W H, Cheng S T.2005. Risk forecasting and evaluating model of environmental pollution accident[J]. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 17(2): 263-267.
33	Zhu Y G, Wang L, Wang J Z, et al.2007. China steps up its efforts in research and development to combat environmental pollution[J]. Environmental Pollution, 147(2): 301-302.

年份	Moran's I	E(I)	Sd.	p(I)
1995	0.003	-0.03	0.104	0.365
1996	-0.046	-0.03	0.105	0.473
1997	0.013	-0.03	0.098	0.302
1998	-0.086	-0.03	0.107	0.317
1999	0.081	-0.03	0.104	0.134
2000	0.065	-0.03	0.102	0.149
2001	0.232	-0.03	0.099	0.016
2002	0.225	-0.03	0.099	0.023
2003	0.154	-0.03	0.103	0.055
2004	0.216	-0.03	0.101	0.020
2005	0.169	-0.03	0.104	0.037
2006	0.183	-0.03	0.107	0.039
2007	0.019	-0.03	0.105	0.287
2008	0.157	-0.03	0.097	0.044
2009	0.156	-0.03	0.087	0.031
2010	0.104	-0.03	0.058	0.021
2011	0.096	-0.03	0.053	0.014
2012	0.248	-0.03	0.065	0.004

年份	重心坐标				重心移动
年份	经度(L)		纬度(B)	转角/(θ/°)	方向	距离/km	速率/(km/a)
1995	113.867	32.340	47.04
1998	113.505	31.412	30.08		西南	117.67	39.22
2001	111.306	29.570	36.79		西南	318.73	106.24
2004	111.134	30.573	35.86		西北	113.07	37.69
2007	114.384	32.505	31.98		东北	420.09	140.03
2010	116.626	32.868	113.54		东北	252.35	84.12
2012	116.122	32.547	106.25		西南	66.39	33.20

主驱动力	载荷因素	全部环境污染事件	水污染事件	大气污染事件	固废污染事件
污染物排放水平	工业废水达标排放量	-0.695^**	-0.653^**	——	——
	工业废气达标排放量	-0.712^**	——	-0.706^**	——
	工业固废综合利用量	-0.738^**	——	——	-0.408
经济发展水平	人均GDP	-0.801^**	-0.735^**	-0.794^**	-0.396
	工业企业数量	-0.294	-0.510^**	-0.216	-0.328
	第二产业增加值	-0.801^**	-0.735^**	-0.794^**	-0.396
环境监管水平	环保机构总数	-0.684^**	-0.623^**	-0.680^**	-0.205
	年末实有环保系统人数	-0.801^**	-0.735^**	-0.794^**	-0.396
	环境来信、来访次数	-0.462	-0.286	-0.453	-0.266
环境控制水平	环境污染治理投入	-0.808^**	-0.737^**	-0.796^**	-0.405
	环境法规或规章总数	0.871^**	0.832^**	0.861^**	0.514^*
	人大、政协的环境提案	-0.528^*	-0.434	-0.531^*	-0.120

变量	Sar-Panel-FE			Sar-Panel-RE		Sem-Panel-FE			Sem-Panel-RE
变量	系数		t值		系数	t值	系数	t值	系数	t值
intercept	——			20.763443	1.5548				32.614146	2.1650^**
AGDP	0.000793	2.2137^**		0.000319	1.0028	0.000864	1.9814^**		0.000086	0.2393
SI	-0.005093	-3.3013^***		-0.003425	-2.5099^**	-0.006213	-3.6951^***		-0.003292	-2.2059^**
EPA	-0.100170	-2.1890^*		-0.006532	-0.1875	-0.175791	-3.8935^***		-0.022315	-0.6246
EW	0.004680	1.0150		0.003033	1.3131	0.007079	1.5197		0.003913	1.4932
EPCI	-0.000085	-2.5082^*		-0.000060	-1.7833^*	-0.000064	-1.7492^*		-0.000058	-1.578120
Wdep.var*	0.397992	6.4315^***		0.399966	6.4559^***	——			——
spat.aut.	——			——		0.470981	8.0239^***		0.417684	6.4565^***
R²	0.5524			0.4991		0.4604					0.4961
R²	0.5524			0.4991		0.4604					0.4961	corr-squared	0.1200	0.0092	0.0927	0.0066
Hausman检验	——			-8.7936		——					-13.2997^**	corr-squared	0.1200	0.0092	0.0927	0.0066
Hausman检验	——			-8.7936		——					-13.2997^**	LR检验	207.4469^***	101.7929^***	212.878^***	97.3890^***
log-likelihood	-1749.347			-1802.174		-1746.632					-1804.376	LR检验	207.4469^***	101.7929^***	212.878^***	97.3890^***

[1]	陈卓, 梁宜, 金凤君. 基于陆路综合交通系统的中国城市网络通达性模拟及其对区域发展格局的影响[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(2): 183-193.
[2]	姜宛贝, 刘卫东, 刘志高, 韩梦瑶. 中国化石能源燃烧碳排放强度非均衡性及其演变的驱动力分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(9): 1425-1435.
[3]	胡国建, 陆玉麒. 基于企业视角的城市网络研究进展、思考和展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(9): 1587-1596.
[4]	朱晟君, 黄永源, 胡晓辉. 多尺度视角下的产业价值链与空间升级研究框架与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(8): 1367-1384.
[5]	杜欣儒, 路紫, 李仁杰, 董雅晴, 高伟. 中国枢纽机场时间延误成本估算与航线影响分析及中美比较[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(7): 1160-1171.
[6]	周国华, 张汝娇, 贺艳华, 戴柳燕, 张丽. 论乡村聚落优化与乡村相对贫困治理[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(6): 902-912.
[7]	谭雪兰, 蒋凌霄, 王振凯, 安悦, 陈敏, 任辉. 地理学视角下的中国乡村贫困——源起、进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(6): 913-923.
[8]	刘小鹏, 程静, 赵小勇, 苗红, 魏静宜, 曾端, 马存霞. 中国可持续减贫的发展地理学研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(6): 892-901.
[9]	孙娜, 张梅青. 基于高铁流的中国城市网络结构特征演变研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(5): 727-737.
[10]	杜德林, 王姣娥, 王祎. 中国三大航空公司市场竞争格局及演化研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(3): 367-376.
[11]	周美君, 李飞, 邵佳琪, 杨海娟. 气候变化背景下中国玉米生产潜力变化特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(3): 443-453.
[12]	孙才志, 阎晓东. 基于MRIO的中国省区和产业灰水足迹测算及转移分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(2): 207-218.
[13]	韩炜, 蔡建明. 乡村非农产业时空格局及其对居民收入的影响[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(2): 219-230.
[14]	李晓丽, 宋伟轩, 吴威, 马雨竹. 基于跟踪调查的北京城市空间感知研究——以中国科学院大学硕士研究生为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(2): 276-285.
[15]	邹利林, 刘彦随, 王永生. 中国土地利用冲突研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(2): 298-309.