中国集中连片特困地区公路交通优势度及其对经济增长的影响

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.06.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过集成公路网络密度、城市邻近度和加权平均出行时间等指标,测量了2012年中国14个集中连片特困地区680个县(市、区)的公路交通优势度,对其空间格局进行综合评价,并通过选择拟合程度最优的SEM模型探讨了公路交通优势度对经济增长的影响。研究发现：①14个集中连片特困地区680个县(市、区)的公路网络密度、城市邻近度和加权平均出行时间的差异较大,公路交通优势度呈现偏右的正态分布;②将公路交通优势度从优到劣分为4个等级,第一等级为大别山区、罗霄山区、吕梁山区、燕山—太行山区;第二等级为秦巴山区、六盘山区、武陵山区、乌蒙山区、滇桂黔石漠化区;第三等级为滇西边境山区、大兴安岭南麓山区以及四省藏区;第四等级为西藏区和新疆南疆三地州;③SEM模型的拟合优度高于OLS模型和SLM模型,结果显示,公路交通优势度对经济增长具有较明显的推动作用,公路交通优势度每提升1个百分点,对其经济产出的贡献达到0.193%,提高公路网络密度能提升公路交通优势度,进而促进当地经济增长。

关键词: 公路交通优势度, 集中连片特困地区, 空间格局, 影响, 中国

Abstract:

This research measured road transport superiority degree of the 680 counties (county-level cities and districts) in the 14 concentrated contiguous severe poverty areas of China in 2012 by integrating the indices of road network density, city proximity, and weighted average travel time, and made a comprehensive evaluation of their spatial patterns. It then chose the optimal model of SEM to explore the impact of road transport superiority degree on economic growth. The results show that: (1) With regard to road network density, city proximity, and weighted average travel time, there is a large difference among the 680 counties (county-level cities and districts) in the 14 concentrated contiguous severe poverty areas. Road transport superiority degree of the 680 counties (county-level cities and districts) presents a right-skewed normal distribution. (2) Road transport superiority degree is divided into four classes from good to bad. The first (best) class includes the Dabie Mountain area, Luoxiao Mountain area, Lvliang Mountain area, and Yanshan-Taihang Mountain area; the second class includes the Qinba Mountain area, Liupan Mountain area, Wuling Mountain area, Wumeng Mountain area, Dian-Gui-Qian Rocky Desertification area; the third class contains the western Yunnan border mountain areas, the Great Khingan South Mountain area, and the Tibetan area in four provinces; the rest of the 14 concentrated contiguous severe poverty areas belong to the fourth (worse) class, which includes Tibet and three prefectures of southern Xinjiang. (3) The fitness of the SEM model is superior compared to the OLS model and the SLM model. The impact of road transport superiority degree on economic growth is clearly significant: every increase of one percentage point in road transport superiority degree has a contribution of 0.193% on economic growth. Therefore improving road network density can enhance road transport superiority degree and promote local and regional economic growth.

Key words: road transport superiority degree, concentrated contiguous severe poverty area, spatial pattern, impacts, China

王武林, 杨文越, 曹小曙. 中国集中连片特困地区公路交通优势度及其对经济增长的影响[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(6): 665-675.

Wulin WANG, Wenyue YANG, Xiaoshu CAO. Road transport superiority degree and impact on economic growth in the concentrated contiguous severe poverty areas in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(6): 665-675.

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编号	名称	面积/10⁴km²	省级行政单位	地级行政单位/个	县级行政单位/个	GDP/亿元	人口/万
1	六盘山区	15.30	陕、甘、青、宁	15	61	2564	2090
2	秦巴山区	21.83	豫、鄂、渝、川、陕、甘	18	75	5256	3419
3	武陵山区	16.32	鄂、湘、渝、黔	12	64	4439	3368
4	乌蒙山区	10.70	川、贵、云	10	38	2428	2349
5	滇桂黔石漠化区	21.28	桂、贵、云	15	80	3377	2887
6	滇西边境山区	19.21	云	10	56	2131	1448
7	大兴安岭南麓山区	11.18	内蒙、吉、黑	4	19	1173	705
8	燕山—太行山区	9.27	冀、晋、内蒙	6	33	1779	1101
9	吕梁山区	3.63	晋、陕	4	20	561	410
10	大别山区	6.47	皖、豫、鄂	11	36	4370	3614
11	罗霄山区	5.21	赣、湘	6	23	1528	1115
12	西藏区	122.84	藏	7	74	750	290
13	四省藏区	99.62	云、川、甘、青	12	77	1445	542
14	新疆南疆三地州	43.65	疆	3	24	725	684
14个片区合计		406.51	21	124^*	680	32526	24022
占全国比重/%		42.34	61.76	37.24	23.81	6.26	17.74

等级	城市	权重
1	主要城市：4个直辖市,27个省会(首府)城市,非省会的副省级城市5个	0.65
2	一般城市：300个地级市	0.35

片区	省道以上公路长度/km	公路网络密度/(km/100 km²)	片区	省道以上公路长度/km	公路网络密度/(km/100 km²)
六盘山区	8378.12	5.41	燕山—太行山区	6451.02	7.32
秦巴山区	12837.25	5.88	吕梁山区	2363.89	6.88
武陵山区	9481.54	5.58	大别山区	6639.32	9.74
乌蒙山区	4916.35	4.52	罗霄山区	4095.87	7.49
滇桂黔石漠化区	9897.77	4.57	西藏区	14279.51	1.20
滇西边境山区	6272.52	3.10	四省藏区	21301.26	2.19
大兴安岭南麓山区	3324.21	3.11	新疆南疆三地州	4808.24	1.18

片区	城市邻近度区间/h	均值/h	标准差/h	片区	城市邻近度区间/h	均值/h	标准差/h
六盘山区	1740~2360	2050	158.61	燕山—太行山区	1817~2376	2035	150.08
秦巴山区	1611~2213	1855	148.85	吕梁山区	1727~1952	1867	58.37
武陵山区	1716~2260	2013	119.10	大别山区	1612~1841	1683	47.57
乌蒙山区	2056~2715	2393	152.44	罗霄山区	1932~2276	2048	85.21
滇桂黔石漠化区	2067~3130	2436	262.15	西藏区	3111~7086	4859	875.63
滇西边境山区	2557~3769	3084	238.65	四省藏区	2168~3840	2811	423.90
大兴安岭南麓山区	2878~3657	3249	186.19	新疆南疆三地州	5331~6182	5675	173.99

项目	普通最小二乘法(OLS)	空间滞后模型(SLM)	空间误差模型(SEM)
ρ	-	0.139^*	-
a	-4.166^*	-4.042^*	-4.241^*
a₁	0.112^*	0.101^*	0.070^*
a₂	0.136^*	0.132^*	0.133^*
a₃	0.208^*	0.149^*	0.193^*
β₁	0.194^*	0.173^*	0.183^*
β₂	0.032^*	0.023^*	0.028^*
β₃	0.350^*	0.337^*	0.408^*
β₄	0.049^*	0.035^*	0.050^*
λ	-	-	0.446^*
R²	0.886^*	0.892	0.908
P	0.000	0.000	0.000
Log-Likelihood	-298.126	-284.983	-250.501
AIC	612.252	587.965	517.002
SC	648.239	628.45	552.988