基于能值分析的城市可持续发展水平与经济增长关系研究——以泉州市为例

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.01.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 城市作为一定区域的中心,在区域经济社会发展中起着举足轻重的作用,如何实现城市的可持续发展,也一直是地理学人地关系研究的热点问题。针对当前城市可持续发展研究中忽视其动态机制的现状,以泉州市为例,在运用能值分析法对可持续发展水平进行定量测度的基础上,通过构建可持续发展库兹涅茨曲线模型(SDKC)对泉州市的城市可持续发展水平与经济增长之间的动态关系进行分析,并运用改进的灰色斜率关联度模型对曲线成因进行了讨论。研究结果表明:泉州城市可持续发展水平与经济增长间存在先降后升的U型SDKC关系;城市可持续发展水平与经济规模,第二、三产业比重,出口依存度和政府影响力呈负相关,与第一产业比重、广义技术减排、外商投资呈正相关,并据此提出一些政策建议。

关键词: 城市可持续发展, 经济增长, 库兹涅茨曲线, 能值分析, 泉州市

Abstract: Cities are centers of surrounding regions and play an important role in regional economic and social developments. Approaches for achieving sustainable urban development has been a hot topic in the study of human- environment relationship. However, the dynamic mechanism of sustainable urban development is relatively neglected in existing urban sustainability studies. In this research, emergy analysis method was used to measure the level of sustainable urban development. On the basis of this analysis, we built a new model of Sustainable Development Kuznets Curve (SDKC), and used Quanzhou City as a case to analyze the dynamic relationship of economic growth and level of sustainable urban development. In addition, an improved model of degree of grey slope incidence was used to preliminarily examine the causes of the SDKC. The results show that the SDKC of Quanzhou City reveals a U-shaped relationship between the level of sustainable urban development and economic growth; the level of sustainable urban development was in negative correlation with economic scale, proportion of secondary industry, proportion of tertiary industry, export dependence, and the influence of government. The generalized pollutant discharge reduction technologies, proportion of primary industry, and foreign investment played a positive role on the level of sustainable urban development. According to the results, we put forward some recommendations on promoting sustain development of the city for decision-makers, including facilitating the transformation of economic growth mode to strengthen the positive effect of modern service industry for sustainable development; adjusting export structure and improving the efficiency of exports; avoiding repetitive public infrastructure development; strengthening technological innovations to promote energy conservation; stringent environmental regulation and barriers to entry, among others. The results of this study may provide some references and foundations for the city government to accurately grasp its sustainable urban development status and dynamic mechanism, and formulate policies that are scientifically sound for sustainable urban development.

Key words: economic growth, emergy analysis, Kuznets curve, Quanzhou City, sustainable urban development

黄洵, 黄民生. 基于能值分析的城市可持续发展水平与经济增长关系研究——以泉州市为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(1): 38-47.

HUANG Xun, HUANG Minsheng. Relationship between sustainable urban development and economic growth based on emergy analysis: a case study of Quanzhou City[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(1): 38-47.

参考文献

郭存芝, 罗琳琳, 叶明. 2014. 资源型城市可持续发展影响因素的实证分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 24(8): 81-89. [Guo C Z, Luo L L, Ye M. 2014. Empirical analysis of factors influencing the sustainable development of resource- based cities[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 24(8): 81-89.]
郝翠, 李洪远, 孟伟庆. 2010. 国内外可持续发展评价方法对比分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 20(1): 161-166. [Hao C, Li H Y, Meng W Q. 2010. Comparison and analysis on different methods of sustainability evaluation at home and abroad[J]. China Population, Resources and environment, 20(1): 161-166.]
蓝盛芳, 钦佩, 陆宏芳. 2002. 生态经济系统能值分析[M]. 北京: 化学工业出版社. [Lan S F, Qin P, Lu H F. 2002. Emergy analysis of eco- economic system[M]. Beijing, China: Chemical Industry Press.]
李瑞娥, 张海军. 2008. 中国环境库兹涅茨曲线的变化特征 (1981-2004)[J]. 西安交通大学学报: 社会科学版, 28(4): 35-43. [Li R E, Zhang H J. 2008. An empirical analysis on the regional discrepancy and tendency of EKC in China (1981-2004) [J]. Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University: Social Sciences, 28(4): 35-43.]
刘耕源, 杨志峰, 陈彬, 等. 2008. 基于能值分析的城市生态系统健康评价: 以包头市为例[J]. 生态学报, 28(4): 1720- 1728. [Liu G Y, Yang Z J, Chen B, et al. 2008. Emergy-based urban ecosystem health assessment: a case study of Baotou City[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 28(4): 1720-1728.]
隆少秋. 2003. 大城市边缘区中小城市可持续发展战略探讨: 以广州增城市为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 22(5): 532-540.[Long S Q. 2003. The strategies of the sustainable development of the medium and small cities on the fringe of Guangzhou[J]. Progress in Geography, 22(5): 532-540.]
陆宏芳, 蓝盛芳, 李雷, 等. 评价系统可持续发展能力的能值指标[J]. 中国环境科学, 22(4): 380-384. [Lu H F, Lan S F, Li L, et al. 2002. Studies on emergy indices for evaluating system sustainable development property[J]. China Environmental Science, 22(4): 380-384.]
陆铭. 2010. 重构城市体系: 论中国区域和城市可持续发展战略[J]. 南京大学学报: 哲学·人文科学·社会科学版, (5): 15-26. [Lu M. 2010. Restructuring urban system: on the strategy of sustainable regional development and urban development in China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University: Philosophy, Humanities and Social Sciences, (5): 15-26.]
秦大河, 张坤民, 牛文元. 2002. 中国人口资源环境与可持续发展[M]. 北京: 新华出版社. [Qin D H, Zhang K M, Niu W Y. 2002. The population resources environment and sustainable development in China[M]. Beijing, China: Xinhua Press.]
泉州市发展和改革委员会. 泉州市国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要[EB/OL]. 2011- 04- 18[2014- 09- 01]. http://www.qzdrc.gov.cn/qzdrc/Newsview.jsp?id= 2188&cid=27. [Quanzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission. Quanzhou economic and social development twelfth five year plan[EB/OL]. 2011- 04- 18 [2014- 09- 01]. http://www. qzdrc.gov.cn/Newsview.jsp? id=2188&cid=27.]
肖新平, 谢录臣, 黄定荣. 1995. 灰色关联度计算的改进及其应用[J]. 数理统计与管理, 14(5): 27-30. [Xiao X P, Xie L C, Huang D R. 1995. A modified computation method of grey correlation degree and its application[J]. Application of Statistics and Management, 14(5): 27-30.]
易丹辉. 2008. 数据分析与Eviews 应用[M]. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社. [Yi D H. 2008. Data analysis and Eviews application[M]. Beijing, China: China Renmin University Press.]v 袁鹏, 程施. 2011. 中国工业环境效率的库兹涅茨曲线检验 [J]. 中国工业经济, (2): 79-88. [Yuan P, Cheng S. 2011. Examining Kuznets curve in environmental efficiency of China's industrial sector[J]. China Industrial Economics, (2): 79-88.]
张乐勤, 陈素平, 李荣富, 等. 2012. 基于协整分析的安徽省能源消费碳排放库兹涅茨曲线[J]. 生态学杂志, 31(7): 1691- 1700. [Zhang L Q, Chen S P, Li R F, et al. 2012. Kuznets curve of carbon emission from energy consumption in Anhui Province of East China based on co-integration analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 31(7): 1691- 1700.]
张琳, 薛冰, 鹿晨昱, 等. 2013. 基于AHP 与GIS 的城市可持续性测度与空间比较研究: 以东北地区35 市州为例[J]. 水土保持研究, 20(2): 86-92. [Zhang L, Xue B, Lu C Y, et al. 2013. Study on the spatial comparison and measurement of urban sustainability based on AHP & GIS approach: a case of 35 municipalities in northeast China[J]. Research of Soil andWater Conservation, 20(2): 86-92.]
张卫民. 2004. 基于熵值法的城市可持续发展评价模型[J]. 厦门大学学报: 哲学社会科学版, (2): 109-115. [Zhang W M. 2004. Evaluation of urban sustainable development based on entropy[J]. Journal of Xiamen University: Arts & Social Sciences, (2): 109-115.]
钟茂初, 张学刚. 2010. 环境库兹涅茨曲线理论及研究的批评综论[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 20(2): 62-67. [Zhong M C, Zhang X G. 2010. Summary about the critique of environmental Kuznets curve[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 20(2): 62-67.]
周学仁, 李东阳. 2009. FDI 与东道国可持续发展相互作用的研究综述[J]. 世界经济, (8): 29-37. [Zhou X R, Li D Y. 2009. Summary of interaction with the host country FDI sustainable development[J]. The Journal of World Economy, (8): 29-37.]
Brown M T, Ulgiati S. 1997. Emergy-based indices and ratios to evaluate sustainability: monitoring economies and technology toward environmentally sound innovation[J]. Ecological Engineering, 9(1-2): 51-69.
Copeland B R, Taylor M S. 2004. Trade, growth and the environment[J]. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(1): 7-71.
Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Wang H, et al. 2002. Confronting the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(1): 147-168.
De Leo G A, Levin S. 1997. The multifaceted aspects of ecosystem integrity[J]. Conservation Ecology, 3(1): 1-23.
Grossman G M, Krueger A B. 1991. Environmental impact of a north American free trade agreement[DB/OL]. 2002-09- 16[2014-09-01]. http://www.nber.org/papers/w3914.pdf. IUCN, UNEP, WWF. 1991. Caring for the earth: a strategy forsustainable living[M]. London, UK: Earthscan Library Collection.
Liu Z Y, Pu C L, Yan Z M, et al. 2013. Influence factors of urban sustainable development of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region: with a case of Urumq[J]. Agricultural Science & Technology, 14(11): 1674-1678, 1682.
Lu H F, Ye Z, Zhao X F, et al. 2003. A new emergy index for urban sustainable development[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 23(7): 1363-1368.
Madhusudan B, Hammig M. 2001. Institutions and the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation: a crosscountry analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia[J]. World Development, 29(6): 995-1010.
Managi S. 2006. Are there increasing returns to pollution abatement? empirical analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve in pesticides[J]. Ecological Economics, 58: 617-636.
Panayotou T. 1993. Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development[M]. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Office.
Pearce D W, Warford J J. 1993. World without end: economics, environment, and susatinable development[M]. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press .
Selden T, Song D Q. 1994. Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets Curve for air pollution emissions [J]? Journal for Environmental Economics and Management, 27: 147-162.
Stokey N L. 1998. Are there limits to growth[J]? International Economic Review, 39(1): 1-31.
Thampapillai D J, Hanf C H, Thangavelu S M, et al. 2003. The environmental Kuznets curve effect and the scarcity of natural resources[C]. Sydney, Australia: Macquarie University NSW.
Torras M, Boyce J. 1998. Income, inequality, and pollution: a reassessment of the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Ecological Economics, 25(2): 147-160.
WCED. 1987. Our common future: The world commission on environment and development[M]. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

[1]	孙彪, 杨山. 长三角地区城市创新投入要素的经济溢出效应及趋同格局[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(1): 147-160.
[2]	牛强, 沈英杰, 周燚, 黄经南, 王盼. 基于滞后变量模型的城市群建设用地增长对经济增长的滞后期和效应分析——以京津冀城市群为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(10): 1656-1666.
[3]	李博, 田闯, 史钊源, 韩增林. 辽宁沿海地区海洋经济增长质量空间特征及影响要素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(7): 1080-1092.
[4]	丁悦, 蔡建明, 任周鹏, 杨振山. 基于地理探测器的国家级经济技术开发区经济增长率空间分异及影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(5): 657-666.
[5]	李广东, 方创琳. 中国区域经济增长差异研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(7): 1102-1112.
[6]	宋涛, 蔡建明, 倪攀, 杜姗姗, 丁悦. 城市新陈代谢研究综述及展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(11): 1650-1661.
[7]	张维阳, 段学军. 经济增长、产业结构与碳排放相互关系研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2012, 31(4): 442-450.
[8]	刘建国, 李国平, 张军涛. 经济效率与全要素生产率研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(10): 1263-1275.
[9]	杜官印,蔡运龙. 1997-2007 年中国建设用地在经济增长中的利用效率[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(6): 693-700.
[10]	段晓峰\|许学工. 山东省污染物排放与经济发展水平的关系[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(3): 342-346.
[11]	张晓青. 改革开放以来山东省区域经济增长趋同与差异[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(12): 1577-1583.
[12]	张蕾, 陈雯, 宋正娜, 薛俊菲. 机场运营与区域经济增长关联性——以南京禄口国际机场为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(12): 1570-1576.
[13]	董冠鹏, 郭腾云, 马静. 中国区域经济波动与经济增长关系[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(10): 1233-1238.
[14]	段七零. 基于能值分析的江苏省耕地生态足迹区域差异[J]. 地理科学进展, 2008, 27(4): 96-102.
[15]	周连第,胡艳霞,严茂超,董孝斌,吴志强,魏长山. 生态经济系统能值分析——以北京密云县为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2006, 25(5): 94-104.