地理科学进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 30-37.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.01.004

• 城市地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于经济社会活动视角的城市空间演化过程模型

牛方曲1,2, 王志强1,2, 胡月1,2,3, 宋涛1,2, 胡志丁1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    3. 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院, 辽宁大连116029;
    4. 中国西南地缘环境与边疆发展协同创新中心, 昆明650500
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-01 修回日期:2014-12-01 出版日期:2015-01-25 发布日期:2015-01-25
  • 作者简介:牛方曲(1979-),男,安徽淮南人,博士,助研,主要研究方向为城市与区域可持续发展,E-mail:niufq@lreis.ac.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41101119);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ15B02);区域可持续发展模型集成与共享研究项目(41371536)。

A model of urban spatial evolution process based on economic and social activities

NIU Fangqu1,2, WANG Zhiqiang1,2, HU Yue1,2,3, SONG Tao1,2, HU Zhiding1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Institute of Urban and Environment, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China;
    4. Collaborative Innovation Center for Geopolitical Environment of Southwest China and Borderland Development, Kunming 650500, China
  • Received:2014-03-01 Revised:2014-12-01 Online:2015-01-25 Published:2015-01-25
  • About author:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.01.004

摘要: 中国的快速城市化带来了诸多问题,亟需制定合理有效的城市空间政策以确保城市发展的可持续性。因此,开展城市空间发展过程模拟、实施政策检验对于推进新型城镇化和城市的健康发展具有重要意义。本文基于“土地利用/交通相互作用模型”(Land Use/Transport Interaction Model, LUTI),以经济社会活动为切入点,构建了城市空间演化过程模型(Urban Activity Spatial Evolution Model, UASEM),并进一步给出了UASEM模型各子模型的具体实现和模块之间衔接的逻辑结构,从可操作层面给出了模型的实现方法。该模型可用于模拟城市空间演化过程、检验政策实施等,将成为城市空间可持续发展模拟分析研究的重要工具。

关键词: 城市空间, 可达性, 模型模拟, 土地利用/交通相互作用模型

Abstract: Abstact: China is meeting the grand challenge while facing many problems brought by the rapid urbanization in the past decades. As a result, effective policies are called for to assure the sustainability of urban spatial development. Modeling urban spatial development process for policy test would be of great significance for decision making and the eventual realization of sustainable urbanization. The objective of this paper is to establish an operative model to simulate urban spatial evolution process that would help to formulate urban spatial policies. Land-use/transport interaction model (LUTI) is considered an important tool to model urban spatial development processes. We think that urban land use reflects the spatial distribution of urban economic and social activities, and urban expension and land use changes reflect the changes of urban activity distribution caused by the interaction between land use and transport. Using the LUTI concept and taking economic and social activities as an enentry point, we built an urban activity spatial evolution model (UASEM) and discussed the implementation of this model in details. UASEM includes a number of submodels, including an Activity Transition Model that predicts the amount of activities, an Estate Development Model that predicts the floorspace of buildings, a Transport Model that evaluates transport accessibility, and an Activity Location Model that predicts the spatial distribution of socioeconomic activities. The paper introduces the implementation of each submodel of the UASEM and maps the relationship between them, so the UASEM given in this paper is an operative model. UASEM is a computer model that includes an itarative programe, which simulates the iterative process of urban land use and transport interaction. To ensure that the model results converge, boundary condition of the model is carefully examined. UASEM is a dynamic model that takes into account the change of every activity. The spatial and tempral dimensions of UASEM need to be decided according to the urban scale and data availability. Towns are normally the basic spatial unit of analysis and the temporal scale of such analysis is often annual. UASEM results provide a reference for researches of urban modeling and analysis in China.

Key words: accessibility, land use/transport interaction model (LUTI), simulation, urban space