地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 1692-1703.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.12.013

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基于复合情景的上海台风风暴潮灾害危险性模拟及其空间应对

宋城城1,2(), 李梦雅1,2, 王军1,2(), 许世远1,2, 陈振楼1,2   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学地理科学学院, 上海 200241
    2. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海 200241
  • 出版日期:2014-12-19 发布日期:2014-12-19
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:宋城城(1991-),女,浙江人,硕士研究生,主要从事沿海灾害风险研究,E-mail: songchengcheng2008@163.com。

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71373084);上海市教育委员会科研创新重点项目(13ZZ035);上海市新一轮城市总体规划(2040)战略研究项目(议题8)

Simulation of typhoon storm surge impacts in Shanghai based on storm surge scenarios and disaster prevention measures

Chengcheng SONG1,2(), Mengya LI1,2, Jun WANG1,2(), Shiyuan XU1,2, Zhenlou CHEN1,2   

  1. 1.School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Online:2014-12-19 Published:2014-12-19

摘要:

综合考虑海平面上升、陆域和海域地形变化、海塘沉降等因素,本文以上海历史上引发强风暴潮的热带气旋TC5612、TC8114和TC0012为基础,构建了12种复合灾害情景,利用MIKE21 FM模型模拟分析了不同情景下台风风暴潮对上海造成的漫滩淹没影响。结果表明:以2010年为模拟基准年份,由于上海地区有高标准的海塘防护,发生风暴潮漫堤淹没的概率极低;但随着时间情景的改变,各情景要素强度加大,漫滩淹没危险性逐渐增大;在2040年的复合灾害情景中,以正面登陆类热带气旋造成的影响为最大,局部区域淹没深度可达3.0 m以上,全市25.23%的海塘和防汛墙存在漫堤危险,漫堤淹没危险区的面积可达到909.53 km2。在此基础上开展了应急避难模拟及避难场所优化研究,进而针对性地提出了保护城市水源涵养区、开挖城市蓄水空间、提高部分海塘设防水平、加强城市排涝系统建设和优化城市应急避难场所布局等空间应对方案。研究成果给上海新一轮“城市安全与综合防灾规划”提供了科学依据。

关键词: 台风风暴潮, 情景模拟, MIKE21 FM, 危险性分析, 空间应对, 上海

Abstract:

In order to study coastal flooding in Shanghai caused by typhoons following typical paths, the possible effects of the six severe typhoon storm surges were analyzed using MIKE21 Flow Model. Based on the probable maximum intensity of tropical cyclones and by taking into consideration sea level rise, topographic change, and seawalls subsidence, 12 scenarios were analyzed for potential storm surge impacts. The results show that, because of the high standard protective seawalls, the possibility of overtopping inundation resulting from storm surges is extremely low under the present condition. However, as the strength of influencing factors increases over time, overtopping inundation becomes more likely. In 2040, the inundation caused by a tropical cyclone landing in Shanghai can be very large, and water depth can reach 3.0 meters or more in some local areas. About 25% of seawalls would be at risk of flooding , and the inundation area of the storm surges can reach 910 km2 under the proposed scenarios. Storm surge disaster prevention measures include protecting the source areas of water supply to the city, creating urban flood retention space, increasing the protection standard of seawalls, enhancing the drainage capability of the city, and optimizing the distribution of the emergency shelters.

Key words: storm surge, scenario simulation, MIKE21 FM, hazard analysis, spatial countermeasure, Shanghai

中图分类号: 

  • X43