关键词: 高速铁路, 市场潜力, 高铁效应, 地级市, 中国

Abstract:

In the past ten years, high-speed railway has rapidly developed in China and its effect on urban development is gradually revealed. This paper explores the impact of high-speed railway on market potential of 268 Chinese cites at the prefecture level or above in 2012. First, market potential function is redefined based on the average travel time and train frequency between 268 cities obtained from the railway train schedules. Second, to examine the high-speed railway effect this research compares market potential of cities with and without high-speed railway. Existing studies of high-speed railway effect have primarily focused on its contribution to time saving and paid little attention to increased train frequency. In this paper, both travel time and train frequency are analyzed. The results show that: (1) Market potential of Chinese cities without high-speed railway exhibits a multi-center and corridor structure. Cities with high values of market potential are mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta Region, Pearl River Delta Region, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, and along some major railway lines such as the Beijing-Guangzhou Railway Line, Beijing-Shanghai Railway Line, and Beijing-Harbin Railway Line; (2) Market potential with high-speed railway also presents a multi-center and corridor structure, but has higher densities around the centers; (3) the high-speed railway effect of cities along the Beijing-Shanghai Railway Line, Shanghai-Hangzhou Railway Line, and Ningbo-Xiamen Special Railway Line is most pronounced, which significantly facilitates the growth of market potential in these cities; (4) The average value of the time-saving effect of 109 cities connected by high-speed railway is 31.3% and the average value of frequency effect is 68.7%, which is the most significant part of the high-speed railway effect.

Key words: high-speed railway, market potential, high-speed railway effect, cities at the prefecture level or above, China