中国产业结构优化路径与碳排放趋势预测

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.12.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国已进入产业结构深度调整时期,同时产业升级也是减排的主要途径之一。为此,本文通过构建分部门跨期优化模型,以需求驱动和产业部门供给为基础,假设中国的消费偏好模式不断向发达国家（如美国、欧盟和日本）趋近,对消费偏好导向下的产业结构优化方向及碳排放趋势进行了模拟研究。结果显示,中国的农业和衣食制造部门比重将呈下降趋势,其他服务业部门比重会不断提高。在中国当前消费偏好模式下,重工业、交通运输、化工和金属等高耗能部门的比重仍将增加,而转向美国消费偏好模式后,这些部门的比重都将下降。交通运输和化工部门比重在转向欧盟消费偏好模式后略有提高,转向日本偏好模式后交通运输部门比重将提高,而金属部门比重将下降。受产业结构调整和能源效率提高的影响,中国未来能源消费总量呈倒U型趋势：在中国、欧盟、日本和美国消费偏好模式驱动下,能源消费总量依次下降,对应的能源高峰在2810~2166 Mtoe之间,累积排放量在94~72.6 GtC之间。美国的消费偏好模式由于倾向于低碳的服务业部门,因此更有利于节能减排。

关键词: 产业结构, 碳排放, 消费偏好, MIDO模型, 跨期优化, 中国

Abstract:

China has been experiencing profound adjustments in its industrial structure. Meanwhile, the industrial upgrade is also an important route to reducing its carbon emissions. This study analyzes the driving force of industrial structure change, that is, the demand of goods of each sector. With China's transition from a developing to a developed economy, the consuming preference of its citizens is expected to converge toward that of developed countries. Based on this assumption, we built a Multi-sector Intertemporal Dynamic Optimization (MIDO) model combining the neoclassic optimal economic growth theory and the input-output production structure model to project consumer preference oriented industrial structure change and carbon emission trends in China based on four scenarios of future development path of China. The simulation result indicates that the share of agriculture as well as food and clothes sectors will shrink, while the other services sector sees its share enlarging under all scenarios. In the business as usual scenario (Scen-China), the shares of heavy-manufacturing, transport, chemicals, and metals sectors continue to increase, while the shares of these energy intensive sectors decrease in the US type of consumption preference scenario (Scen-US). The shares of transport and chemicals will decline slightly in the EU type of consumption preference scenario (Scen-EU); and in the Japan type of consumption preference scenario (Scen-JP) the share of the transport sector will rise and the share of the metals sector will drop. Aggregated energy use of China will show an inversed-U shaped trend due to industrial structure change and energy efficiency improvement. The gross energy use in the Scen-China, Scen-EU, Scen-JP, and Scen-US scenarios will considerably decline from the peak value of 2810 Mtoe to 2166 Mtoe. Accordingly, the accumulated carbon emission will be in the range of 94 GtC to 72.6 GtC. The consuming preference pattern of US, due to its heavy reliance on the services sector, is better than that of JP, followed by EU and China from the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction.

Key words: industrial structure, carbon emission, consumption preference, MIDO model, intertemporal optimization, China

中图分类号:

F224

朱永彬, 王铮. 中国产业结构优化路径与碳排放趋势预测[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(12): 1579-1586.

Yongbin ZHU, Zheng WANG. Projection of China’s industrial structure change and carbon emission trends[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(12): 1579-1586.

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部门	中国	美国	欧盟	日本	部门	中国	美国	欧盟	日本
交通运输	0.0387	0.0175	0.0513	0.0477	农业	0.0605	0.0082	0.0106	0.0072
电力	0.0125	0.0101	0.0096	0.0112	衣食制造	0.1504	0.0483	0.0854	0.0664
采矿	0.0098	0.0017	0.0079	0.0027	轻工业	0.0995	0.0487	0.0997	0.0676
天然气	0.0006	0.0026	0.0015	0.0002	重工业	0.1812	0.0345	0.0780	0.0927
化工	0.0394	0.0264	0.0590	0.0308	建筑业	0.0056	0.0005	0.0059	0.0025
煤炭	0.0017	0.0003	0.0001	0.0000	其他服务业	0.3469	0.7798	0.5468	0.6411
金属	0.0355	0.0067	0.0290	0.0167
石油	0.0176	0.0148	0.0150	0.0132