基于住宅价格的北京城市空间结构研究

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.10.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市空间结构是城市地理研究的核心重点之一。近年来,城市住宅价格快速增长,一方面导致城市空间结构出现了一些新的特征和问题,另一方面住宅价格也可敏锐地反映出城市空间结构的演变。因此,本文从住宅价格的角度对北京市城市空间结构进行了探讨。利用北京市2005年和2012年二手房市场住宅的空间数据,通过GIS空间分析、空间自相关分析和Hedonic回归分析等方法,对住宅价格时空格局及影响因素进行了分析,并在此基础上从住宅价格的角度探讨了城市空间结构的优化调整问题。北京市住宅价格存在蔓延式增长、空间差异明显及空间自相关性高等特点,其主要的影响因素包括区位条件、交通便利度、周围环境、基础设施、物业等级等。基于住宅价格得出北京市空间结构的主要特征为：①已形成了多中心的城市空间结构格局。除市中心外,还有亚奥地区、万柳—香山地区、中关村地区、复兴门地区、CBD等次中心,空间扩张仍呈现“摊大饼”的发展模式;②社会空间分异现象有所缓解,但仍存在明显的居住隔离。金融街、月坛等街道是房价高值集聚区,易形成“富人区”,而南六环尤其是房山则易形成“穷人区”;③交通条件和周围硬件环境等基础设施对城市空间结构有一定的调整作用,但调整的效果并不理想。

关键词: 住宅价格, 城市空间结构, 特征价格, 北京

Abstract:

The development of housing market in Beijing has brought phenomenal changes to urban structures, and in recent years, soaring housing price has become a serious public concern. This paper explores the spatiotemporal evolution of housing prices using the spatial data of residential blocks in 2005 and 2012 in order to reveal its influencing factors, especially factors affecting the spatial structure of housing prices. Based on the analysis, this paper discusses the characteristics of such spatial structure and put forward some suggestions for urban planning and construction from the viewpoint of housing prices, which is a new perspective of urban spatial structure studies. The result of the analysis shows that housing prices increased overall, and particularly, the prices of subsidized housings for lower income population and regular housing increased much faster compared to higher-end housing. Spatial autocorrelation effect associated with housing price has become significantly stronger in 2012, especially in the central part of Beijing. The influencing factors of housing prices were analyzed using a multivariate linear regression model-the hedonic pricing model. In addition to the location factor, high property maintenance standard, good environment, well-developed transportation infrastructure, high-quality educational resources, and high availability of other public service facilities around the residential blocks can significantly increase housing prices. Multiple centers of high price housing have started to emerge in the past decade, such as the CBD, Zhongguancun, and Ya'ao districts. The Financial Street and Yuetan areas are the high value centers of housing prices. The areas around the south Sixth Ring Road, especially the Fangshan District, are the concentrated areas of lower price housing. This may eventually lead to social segregation of urban residents. Effective policies should be made to avoid this problem. In addition, the city should strengthen traffic infrastructure development and enhance the coordination of different facilities to influence the spatial pattern of housing prices and promote equal provision of urban social resources fundamentally.

Key words: housing price, urban spatial structure, hedonic model, Beijing

中图分类号:

F127

王芳, 高晓路, 颜秉秋. 基于住宅价格的北京城市空间结构研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(10): 1322-1331.

Fang WANG, Xiaolu GAO, Bingqiu YAN. Research on urban spatial structure in Beijing based on housing prices[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(10): 1322-1331.

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环线位置	均价/(元/m²)		最大值/(元/m²)		最小值/(元/m²)		标准差/(元/m²)
环线位置	2005年	2012年	2005年	2012年	2005年	2012年	2005年	2012年
二环内	8815	36747	20750	86826	4834	3125	3421.3	10443.9
二环外三环内	8083	32674	21000	135016	3950	3138	3071.3	9111.3
三环外四环内	6402	28559	19067	100000	2450	4326	2552.4	9064.1
四环外五环内	5624	26711	16600	100000	2080	4285	2014.6	9235.4
五环外六环内	3624	17539	24000	80674	1250	2500	1989.1	6647.0

年份	Moran's I	E(I )	Z(I )
2005	0.428	-0.0013	53.422
2012	0.404	-0.0002	363.996

特征变量类型	特征变量名称	说明
区位特征	到市中心的距离	绝对数值/km
	到最近次中心的距离	绝对数值/km
	800 m内公交站点数	绝对数值/个
	1500 m内有无地铁站	有赋值1;无赋值0
邻里特征	物业费	绝对数值/(元/(m²·月))
	绿化率	绝对数值,缺失值按照物业等级加以补充/%
	容积率	绝对数值,缺失值按照物业等级加以补充/%
	1000 m内是否有三级医院	有赋值1;无赋值0
	1000 m内是否有公园	有赋值1;无赋值0
	1000 m内是否有重点中学	有赋值1;无赋值0
	人口密度	住宅所在街道常住人口密度绝对数值/(人/km²)
结构特征	房龄	绝对数值/年
	物业等级	哑元变量：别墅,公寓,普通住宅,两限房、经适房4个等级。以两限房、经适房为参照,其余分别赋值1

变量	2005年				2012年
变量	B	t	sig.	B	t	sig.
到最近次中心距离	-0.034	-12.189	0.000	-0.033	-24.193	0.000
到市中心距离	-.0110	-4.588	0.000	-.016	-12.482	0.000
1500 m内有无地铁站	0.039	2.085	0.037	0.038	3.599	0.000
800 m内公交站点数	0.006	3.141	0.002	0.002	2.833	0.005
1000 m内是否有重点中学	0.071	2.801	0.005	0.031	2.652	0.008
1000 m内是否有三级医院	0.107	4.577	0.000	0.075	6.911	0.000
1000 m内是否有公园	0.060	3.000	0.003
容积率	0.013	3.678	0.000	-0.005	-2.676	0.007
绿化率				0.002	4.043	0.000
物业费	0.079	12.265	0.000	0.041	16.388	0.000
人口密度				0.001	2.230	0.026
房龄	-0.025	-6.429	0.000	0.005	7.174	0.000
普通住宅	0.169	3.545	0.000	0.333	3.666	0.000
公寓	0.416	8.004	0.000	0.282	3.089	0.002
别墅	0.373	4.331	0.000	0.518	5.613	0.000