关键词: PRED系统, PSR模型, 大连市, 多目标决策, 区域可持续发展, 人口承载力

Abstract: At present, China is in the process of rapid urbanization. The traditional urban development approach urgently needs to be transformed into a new urbanization model that is intelligent, green and low-carbon. Meanwhile, coordinated urban-rural development and regional integrative development have gained greater importance. In order to systematically assess the quality of China's urbanization under the new situation, the comprehensive assessment method of regional PRED system was proposed considering the complicated relationship between population, resources, environment and economic and social development(PRED), which are mutually stimulating but also restricting. This paper proposes the concept and characterization method of regional PRED carrying capacity. By learning from the Pressure-State-Response(PSR) model, the assessment index system of regional PRED on Carrying capacity-Pressure-State-Response was established. A comprehensive responsiveness and emergency response grade categorization method was proposed to assess regional PRED system by multi-objective planning and decision making. Using Dalian city as an example, this study empirically analyzes the above-mentioned concept, model, assessment index system and assessment method. The results show that during 2000-2012, PRED system of Dalian was in a state of overload, that regional population carrying capacity decreased from 3630 thousand to 2910 thousand persons. Compared with nationwide levels, the pressure of Dalian PRED system was relative low with a decreasing trend: the load index of regional PRED system dropped from 0.97 to 0.85. Comprehensive responsiveness of regional PRED in Dalian was above 0.6 and emergency response grade was GradeⅡ(orange) or Grade Ⅲ(yellow). The results indicate that because of resource scarcity and environmental degradation, the population carrying capacity of Dalian was gradually decreasing. Due to the continuous development of economy and social security, the pressure of urbanization in Dalian has been relieved. In the future, relevant government departments should seek to actively solve the problem of resources and environmental constraints of new urbanization, resolve the conflicts that hindered the sustainable development of economy and society, promote regional coordinated development through reasonably managing the urban size and resources allocation and practicing environmental protection, industrial transformation and livelihood security improvement. By comparing with similar studies and further discussion, the results of this paper are considered as reliable and conforming to the reality of Dalian in population, resources, environment and economic and social development. The concept of regional PRED carrying capacity and the assessment index system based on the carrying capacity PSR model and multi-objective decision-making method provide a new thought and method to quantitatively assess the quality of urbanization and regional sustainable development.

Key words: Dalian City, multiobjective decision making, population carrying capacity, PRED system, PSR model, regional sustainable development