地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 202-210.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.02.006

• 城市与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于矢量的城市扩张多智能体模拟——以广州市番禺区为例

周淑丽1, 陶海燕1,2, 卓莉1,2   

  1. 1. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院综合地理信息研究中心, 广州510275;
    2. 广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室, 广州510275
  • 收稿日期:2013-08-01 修回日期:2013-11-01 出版日期:2014-02-25 发布日期:2014-02-25
  • 作者简介:周淑丽(1989-),女,河南平顶山人,硕士生,主要研究方向为城市GIS及其空间发展应用、多智能体模拟,E-mail:zhoushul@mail3.sysu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    广东省自然科学基金项目(S2013010012554);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2012AA121402);中山大学千人计划科研启动经费项目;中山大学领军人才专项工作经费项目。

Vector-based multi-agent simulation of urban expansion:a case study in Panyu District in Guangzhou City

ZHOU Shuli1, TAO Haiyan1,2, ZHUO Li1,2   

  1. 1. Center of Integrated Geographic Information Analysis, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-senUniversity, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
  • Received:2013-08-01 Revised:2013-11-01 Online:2014-02-25 Published:2014-02-25
  • Contact: 陶海燕(1966-),女,江苏扬州人,副教授,主要从事多智能体地理模拟研究,E-mail:taohy@mail.sysu.edu.cn。 E-mail:zhoushul@mail3.sysu.edu.cn;taohy@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • About author:TU984.12

摘要: 运用自下而上的多智能体建模方法构建城市扩张模型,研究城市扩张的基本特征和规律,对新型城镇化建设具有重要的理论和现实意义。但传统的多智能体模拟大多是基于栅格数据构建,不同的格网大小、邻域形状及邻域大小将产生不同的模拟结果。为克服传统栅格数据受模拟尺度的影响,采用城市土地利用现状图,构建矢量多智能体城市扩张动态模型。智能体依据“宜居性”评价指标,并遵从个人偏好,选择合适区位,模拟城市扩张的时空动态过程。将模型应用于广州市番禺区,模拟了其2003-2008年城市扩张情况。最后将模拟结果与实际土地利用现状图进行对比,结果表明,地块的转化精度为63.09%,非转化精度为90.74%,总精度为85.83%,具有较好的模拟精度,可以为新型城镇化建设提供有效的决策支持。

关键词: NetLogo, 城市扩张, 多智能体模拟, 广州市番禺区, 矢量数据

Abstract: Urbanization has great potential to stimulate China's domestic demand and is an important driving force of building a well-off society in an all-round way. However the limited land resource in the process of urbanization has caught great attention of the government. So, research on the mechanisms of urban land expansion can offer effective guidance for urbanization. Multi-agent modeling provides a new method to study urban land expansion. And it is of theoretical and practical significance to adopt multi-agent modeling, a bottom-up approach, to explore the characteristics and mechanisms of urban land expansion. However, the existing multi-agent models are mainly based on raster, where grid size has a major impact on the simulation results, and grid size, neighborhood shape and neighborhood size also lead to different simulation results. As a result, it is a big challenge to choose an appropriate size for better simulation results. In order to overcome the limitation of the traditional raster-based multi-agent simulation, a vector-based multi-agent system of urban land expansion dynamic simulation was developed, in which household agents selected their own optimal places of living based on evaluation indices of urban residential suitability in the human-environment science. The evaluation indices mainly include the following four aspects: traffic accessibility, living convenience, land price and landscaping. The indices of traffic accessibility are obtained by calculating the distance from road and subway station based on exponential distance decay function. The indices of living convenience are obtained by calculating the distance from the public facilities such as school, hospital and so on, based on the same function. The indices of land price depend on the average price of the land in the neighborhood. The indices of landscaping are obtained based on the distance to rivers or the green in the same way. Finally, the four indices are summed up, by a weighted factor, to indicate the living suitability. The model runs as follows: household agents select their ideal residential package to live based on their preferences of living environment, the four evaluation indices as mentioned above. The land type of this package will be converted to urban land when the total number of household agents that select this package exceeds a certain threshold. At this point household agents can choose to stop selecting and settle down, or continue to select until they find their ideal residential package. This vector-based model was used to simulate urban land expansion process from 2003 to 2008, taking the district of Panyu of Guangzhou City as a study area and using the GIS-Extension module of NetLogo platform. Eventually, the simulation results were compared to the actual land use situations, showing that the conversion accuracy is 63.09%, the non-conversion accuracy is 90.74%, and the total accuracy is 86.04%. The simulation shows that vector-based multi-agent simulation of urban land expansion not only can eliminate the impact of the scale on the simulation results, but also has high simulation accuracy. At the same time, to some extent the vector-based multi-agent simulation is useful for understanding and discussing the mechanisms of urban expansion, and offers effective support for making the decisions on the construction of new urbanization.

Key words: multi-agent simulation, NetLogo, Panyu District, Guangzhou City, urban expansion, vector data

中图分类号: 

  • TU984.12