地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 181-193.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.02.004

• 城市与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

1992-2011年哈萨克斯坦城镇化过程及其影响因素

叶尔肯·吾扎提1,2,3, 刘慧1,2, 刘卫东1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    3. 中国科学院大学, 北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-01 修回日期:2013-11-01 出版日期:2014-02-25 发布日期:2014-02-25
  • 作者简介:叶尔肯·吾扎提(1987-),男,哈萨克族,新疆哈巴河县人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城市化与区域发展研究、中亚地区研究,E-mail:yeek.10s@igsnrr.ac.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ15B02);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所“一三五”战略科技计划项目(2012SJ006)。

Evaluation of Kazakhstan's urbanization during 1992-2011 and its influencing factors

YEERKEN Wuzhati1,2,3, LIU Hui1,2, LIU Weidong1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2013-07-01 Revised:2013-11-01 Online:2014-02-25 Published:2014-02-25
  • Contact: 刘慧(1964-),女,陕西兴平人,研究员,主要从事城市化与区域发展研究,E-mail:liuh@igsnrr.ac.cn。 E-mail:yeek.10s@igsnrr.ac.cn;liuh@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • About author:K915

摘要: 哈萨克斯坦自1992年独立以来,经历了独特的发展历程。通过建立城镇化水平测度综合指标体系,运用熵值法,测算哈萨克斯坦城镇化水平,并从人口、经济、社会及土地等4个方面解析了1992-2011年哈萨克斯坦城镇化演变过程。结果发现,自1992年以来,哈萨克斯坦城镇化进程呈“U”字型,经历了4个阶段,即:城镇化水平快速下降阶段(1992-1996年)、城镇化水平缓慢下降阶段(1997-2000年)、城镇化水平缓慢上升阶段(2001-2004年)和城镇化水平快速上升阶段(2005-2011年),定量分析了4个子系统对城镇化综合水平变化的贡献度。其中,快速下降阶段主要表现为社会城镇化减退,缓慢下降阶段主要受人口城镇化的影响,2000年之后的城镇化主要表现为经济、社会及土地城镇化的恢复和加快。最后,从政治突变、政治移民、国家政策、石油工业以及全球化与贸易等方面,对城镇化演变过程的影响因素进行了分析。

Abstract: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia has been confronted with serious social and economic conflicts, and in urban areas, these problems are more obvious and severe. However,the 21st century is very significant to Central Asia, especially to Kazakhstan. Oil industry has promoted the rapid economic growth and lots of new oil cities have emerged in this region, but the traditional industrial cities are still struggling. The aim of this research is to analyze the degree of Central Asia's urbanization and the evolutional process from the collapse of the Soviet Union, and establish a comprehensive evaluation index system based on the case of Kazakhstan's urbanization. Through studying the essential meanings of urbanization and the characteristics of Kazakhstan, this research set up a comprehensive evaluation index system, including changes in population, economy, society and land, and othersixteen specific secondaryindicators. Moreover, using the method of information entropy to determine the weight of each indicator and calculate its comprehensive value. Firstly, the results show that the weight of social class index is the highest, andthe weight of population class index is the lowest,whichindicates that the rural-urban migration is not the main urbanization process of Kazakhstan during the past 20 years. Secondly, the comprehensive values suggest that Kazakhstan's comprehensive urbanization process can be divided into four stages, and the studies on the evolution process found that the mechanisms of population, economy, society and land present different characteristics during the four stages of urbanization. (1) In the rapid reduction stage (1992-1996), the main processes of Kazakhstan's urbanization were the rapid decline of the four aspects, especially the society index class. (2) In the slow declining stage (1997-2000), the main processes of Kazakhstan's urbanization were the rising of population index and slow declining of other aspects. (3) In the slow rising stage (2001-2004), Kazakhstan's urbanization was mainly the gradual recovery of economy and society indexes; (4) In the rapid rising stage (2005-2011), Kazakhstan's urbanization mainly witnessed a rapid economic growth. Finally, this research studied the influencing factors of Kazakhstan's urbanization based on the method of Four Dimensional Analysis on market forces, intrinsic forces, exterior forces and administrative forces. (1) The political mutation under the destruction of the urban functions was the reason for the decline of the Kazakhstan's urbanization level from 1992 to 2000. (2)A large number of urban residents with higher vocational skills and more knowledge had escaped from Kazakhstan, leading to the collapse of the urban population, and this phenomenon was even more significant from 1992 to 1996. (3) The recovery of Kazakhstan's urbanization was due to the administration power and policy implications, and these were also the reasons for the slow decline of Kazakhstan's urbanization from 1997 to 2000 and the strengthening of Kazakhstan's urbanization after 2000. (4) Driven by the oil industry and trades, Kazakhstan's urbanization improved in terms of its industrial structure and employment.

中图分类号: 

  • K915