地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 145-152.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.02.001

• 本刊特稿 •    下一篇

中国山地灾害研究进展与未来应关注的科学问题

崔鹏1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 成都610041;
    2. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 成都610041
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-01 修回日期:2014-02-01 出版日期:2014-02-25 发布日期:2014-02-25
  • 作者简介:崔鹏(1957-),研究员,博士生导师,主要从事山地灾害与水土保持研究,E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41030742,41140006)

Progress and prospects in research on mountain hazards in China

CUI Peng1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, CAS, Chengdu 610041, China;
    2. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS, Chengdu 610041, China
  • Received:2014-01-01 Revised:2014-02-01 Online:2014-02-25 Published:2014-02-25
  • About author:P642

摘要: 本文首先简要回顾了山地灾害研究与防治方面的新进展:认识了山地灾害的空间分布规律,建立了山洪、泥石流、滑坡危险性评价方法;发展了滑坡稳定性分析的原理和计算方法,建立了泥石流流体应力本构关系、泥石流流速流量和冲击力计算公式、粘性泥石流起动模型,提出了山洪和泥石流规模放大效应;基于降雨和地面成灾环境要素耦合分析,发展了山地灾害气象预报方法;基于对灾害物理特性的认识,研发了一系列灾害监测预警仪器、数字流域平台与智能手机网络相结合的山洪预警系统;发展了灾害治理工程技术,形成了适合欠发达地区特点的灾害治理技术体系。在此基础上,分析了在灾害形成、运动、预测预报、防治技术和风险管理等方面还需要进一步深化研究的问题,提出山地灾害学科今后面临的任务。最后,针对国家减灾需求和学科发展目标,提出灾害对生态的响应机制、气候变化对山地灾害的影响与巨灾预测、水—土耦合的细观结构力学、灾害风险的理论与方法、基于灾害形成理论的机理预报模式、灾害防治技术规程的健全等未来应该关注的科学技术问题。

关键词: 风险管理, 山地灾害, 预测预报, 灾害防治, 中国

Abstract: In this paper, first, the research progress on fundamental theories on mountain hazards and prevention techniques are briefly reviewed. In the current research, the distribution of mountain hazards has been recognized and the hazards assessment methods for mountain torrents, debris flow and landslides have been established, and the principles and calculations of landslide stability analysis have been developed. In addition, the stress-strain relation of debris flow slurry and the formulae of velocity, discharge and impact of debris flow have been established, and a model of viscous debris flow initiation has also been proposed. We also presented the magnitude amplification effects of mountain torrents and debris flows. Meanwhile, the methods to forecast mountain hazards have been developed by analyzing both rainfall and ground factors. Based on the understanding of the physical characteristics of mountain hazards, a number of monitoring instruments have been invented, and especially the early warning methods have been used in the underdeveloped regions. Furthermore, a systematic technology for coping with mountain hazards has been developed. The topics on the formation, development, forecasting and prevention, protection strategies and risk management of mountain hazards have been proposed for future research. Finally, aiming at the requirements of the reduction of disasters for the nation and the goals of the academic progresses, we propose the topics that are worthy of more attention in the future research, such as the response of mountain hazards to ecology, the effects of climate change on mountain hazards, the prediction of catastrophe, the mesomechanic behaviors of the soil affected by water, the theories and methods of hazard risk assessment, the hazard forecasting model based on the formation mechanisms and the improvement of prediction and recovery technology.

Key words: China, disaster prevention, forecasting and prediction, mountain hazards, risk management

中图分类号: 

  • P642