地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 102-113.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.01.012

• 产业与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

1982-2010年中国县域经济发展时空格局演变

周扬1,2, 李宁1,2,3, 吴文祥4, 吴吉东1,2   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京100875;
    2. 北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京100875;
    3. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室, 北京100875;
    4. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2013-09-01 修回日期:2013-11-01 出版日期:2014-01-25 发布日期:2014-01-22
  • 通讯作者: 李宁(1958-),江苏盐城人,教授,主要从事综合自然灾害风险管理研究,E-mail:ningli@bnu.edu.cn。 E-mail:ningli@bnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:周扬(1984- ),贵州普安人,博士生,主要研究方向为区域可持续发展和环境演变,E-mail:yzhou@mail.bnu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重大科学研究计划(973 计划)项目(2012CB955402);国家自然科学基金项目(41171401);科技部国际合作项目(2012CB955402)。

Evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of county economic development in China during 1982-2010

ZHOU Yang1,2, LI Ning1,2,3, WU Wenxiang4, WU Jidong1,2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2013-09-01 Revised:2013-11-01 Online:2014-01-25 Published:2014-01-22

摘要: 研究县域经济发展格局对揭示区域经济发展空间演化机制和实现县域经济的可持续发展具有重要的理论意义。基于中国2352 个县域单元1982、1990、2000 和2010 年的人均GDP数据,采用空间关联技术和变差函数分析了近30 年来中国县域经济发展格局的演化特点并探讨了其演化机制。结果表明:中国县域经济发展和增长存在正的空间自相关性;1982 年以来,经济发展的空间集聚程度逐渐增加,空间依赖程度增强;东部和华北北部地区是县域经济发展的热点区;县域经济发展存在空间呈异质性,经济发展的空间分异格局中的随机成分随时间推移不断降低;中国东南—西北向经济发展的均质性相对较好,空间差异较小;历史基础、经济区位、资源禀赋和区域发展政策等是中国县域经济发展格局演化的主要驱动因素。

关键词: 变差函数, 空间自相关, 时空格局, 县域经济发展, 中国

Abstract: Studying the spatio-temporal pattern of county economic development is extremely important for revealing the evolutionary mechanism of regional economy and achieves the sustainable development of China's county economy. Although considerable research attention has examined the regional economic pattern of China at the provincial and national levels in a certain time, we currently know the least about the profiles of county economic development across different periods. There is general agreement in the regional geography community that understanding the dynamic pattern of county economic development can provide a scientific base for the policy making and the implementation of regional development planning. Thus, the spatio-temporal pattern of county economic development in China merit further investigation. Based on the 2352 counties' per capita GDP in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010, the spatial autocorrelation analysis and variogram were used to investigate the evolutionary characteristics of spatiotemporal patterns of county economic development and to explore the possible mechanism behind the changes in the spatial pattern. Results showed that the county economic development and growth exhibit a positive spatial autocorrelation, which indicates that some counties with similar economic development levels clustered. But the spatial autocorrelation of the economic growth over the past three decades was not obvious. Since 1982, the spatial concentration of the county economy increased gradually and the spatial dependence enhanced over time. The difference of county economic development in eastern area of China is greater than that in the middle and western regions. In all four studied years, there are nine county units with a "high-high" pattern of economic development, i.e., Wujin, Kunshan, Dantu, Taicang, Changshu and Wuxi. Meanwhile, there are about forty-three county units maintaining their locations of "low-low" pattern of economic development for all studied years. Furthermore investigations revealed that the proportion of the county unites with homogeneity economic level increased from 19.56% in 1982 to 27.26% in 2010, whereas unites with heterogeneity level decreased from 3.06% in 1982 to 2.55% in 2010. This result demonstrated that there was an obvious heterogeneity for China's county economic development and the polarization effect in county economic development was enhancing over time. Overall, the hotspot areas of China's economic development mainly clustered in the eastern and northern regions of China, while the hotspot ones were concentrated in its central, southern and southwestern areas. Furthermore, the continuity and self-organization of Chinese county patterns was enhancing, whereas the random components of spatial disparity patterns was decreasing over time, which means that the structural differentiation caused by spatial autocorrelation was becoming more apparent. There was a relatively good homogeneousness in the economic development in the direction of northeast-northwest. The possible drivers behind the county economic development patterns could be partly attributed to its economic location, regional development policy, special resources and background of historical development. Among these possible causes, the regional development strategies may be the external contributors to the evolution in regional economic patterns. These findings have important theoretical and practical significance on narrowing the gap between urban and rural development.

Key words: China, county economic development, spatial autocorrelation, spatial-temporal pattern, variogram

中图分类号: 

  • K90