地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 3-12.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.01.001

• 本刊特稿 •    下一篇

中国过去2000年极端气候事件变化的若干特征

郑景云1, 郝志新1, 方修琦1,2, 葛全胜1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    2. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院, 北京100875
  • 收稿日期:2013-10-01 修回日期:2013-12-01 出版日期:2014-01-25 发布日期:2014-01-22
  • 通讯作者: 葛全胜(1963-),安徽安庆人,研究员,主要从事全球变化研究,E-mail:geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn。 E-mail:geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:郑景云(1966- ),福建莆田人,研究员,主要从事气候变化研究,E-mail:zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05080100);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所“一三五”战略科技计划项目(2012ZD001);国家自然科学基金项目(41071029)。

Changing characteristics of extreme climate events during past 2000 years in China

ZHENG Jingyun1, HAO Zhixin1, FANG Xiuqi1,2, GE Quansheng1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2013-10-01 Revised:2013-12-01 Online:2014-01-25 Published:2014-01-22

摘要: 历史时期极端气候事件变化是当前气候变化研究的热点领域。本文根据近20 年这一研究领域的主要文献,对中国过去2000 年极端气候事件变化特征进行了梳理和总结。已有认识表明:① 在1500-1900 年和220-580年等气候寒冷期,中国不但多次出现过较1950 年以后所出现的极端冷冬更为显著的寒冷事件,而且其间的相对温暖时段也出现过日最高气温超过20 世纪极端记录的炎夏。② 在中国东部季风区,在公元301-400、751-800、1051-1150、1501-1550 和1601-1650 年极端干旱多发;101-150、251-300、951-1000、1701-1750、1801-1850 和1901-1950 年极端大涝多发;1551-1600 年则是极端干旱与大涝并发最为频繁的时段。7-8 世纪、12-14 世纪和15 世纪后期-17 世纪中期多发极端连旱;10-11 世纪及17 世纪中期以后,多发极端连涝。华北、江淮和江南3 个地区的极端干旱和大涝事件多发时段存在差异;此外,历史极端连旱事件如“崇祯大旱”和“丁戊奇荒”等也得到辨识。③ 在西北干旱区,极端干旱主要集中发生在1471-1520 年、1581-1650 年、1711-1760 年、1811-1860 年和1921-1970 年等5个时段,其中18 世纪10 年代可能是过去千年极端干旱最严重的年代。④ 在西南地区,虽然21 世纪初旱灾频发,但与2006年川渝特大干旱相仿的事件在史上也曾多次发生过。

关键词: 变化特征, 过去2000年, 极端气候事件, 中国

Abstract: In the current research on climate changes it is a hot topic to study the changes of extreme climatic events during historical periods. In this paper, based on the reconstructions from multiple proxy types including historical documents, tree-rings, ice cores and lake sediments in the published literature of the recent 20 years, we summarized the characteristics of changes of extreme climate events during the past 2000 years in China. The analysis shows that: (1) During the cold periods of 1500-1900 and 220-580, there appeared extremely cold winters that were even colder than the cold winters in the years after 1950, and there appeared hot summers with daily highest temperature exceeding record high of the years in the 20th century as well. In the past 1600 years, the cold summer events in Northeast of China mainly occurred during the period of 1400-1900. (2) In the eastern monsoon region of China, the extreme drought events prevailed during the periods of 301-400, 751-800, 1051-1150, 1501-1550 and 1601-1650, the extreme flood events often occurred during the periods of 101-150, 251-300, 951-1000, 1701-1750, 1801-1850 and 1901-1950, and for the period of 1551-1600, coexisting extreme drought and extreme flood events occurred most frequently. The frequency of persistent extreme drought was higher during the 7th-8th century, 12th-14th century and late-15th century to mid-17th century; the frequency of sustaining extreme flood was higher during the 10th-11th century and after the mid-17th century. The time intervals of extreme drought/flood events are different in North China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley and south of Yangtze River. In addition, the notable extreme drought events, such as "Chong Zhen Drought" in the Ming Dynasty, and "Ding Wu Famine" in the Qing Dynasty, were recognized. (3) In the arid region of Northwest China, the extreme drought events mainly occurred during the periods of 1471-1520, 1581-1650, 1711-1760, 1811-1860 and 1921-1970. 1710s was the most severe drought decade during the past 1000 years. However, due to the very limited climate proxy data for this region, the primary characteristics of complete change process of the extreme events were difficult to evaluate. (4) Although drought frequently occurred in southwest of China during the early 21th century, the extreme drought events as severe as the one in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 occurred many times during the historical periods.

Key words: characteristic of change, China, extreme climate event, past 2000 years

中图分类号: 

  • P467