地理科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10): 1545-1554.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.10.012

• 气候与环境变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于日记的历史气候变化研究综述

黄媛1, 李蓓蓓1,2, 李忠明1   

  1. 1. 南京信息工程大学语言文化学院, 南京 210044;
    2. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院, 北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2013-05-01 修回日期:2013-08-01 出版日期:2013-10-25 发布日期:2013-10-24
  • 作者简介:黄媛(1989- ),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为气象科技史。E-mail: angelyuan1989@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家公益性行业(气象)专项项目(GYHY201306064);江苏省哲社规划项目(11ZWB001);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB950103);南京信息工程大学科研启动经费项目(S8112090001)。

Review of climate reconstruction based on ancient diary

HUANG Yuan1, LI Beibei1,2, LI Zhongming1   

  1. 1. School of Language and Culture, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2013-05-01 Revised:2013-08-01 Online:2013-10-25 Published:2013-10-24
  • Contact: 李蓓蓓(1984- ),女,讲师,主要从事环境演变、气象科技史等研究。E-mail: libeibei@nuist.edu.cn E-mail:libeibei@nuist.edu.cn

摘要: 重建历史时期的气候变化可为分析当前气候变化规律和模拟未来气候变化趋势提供历史参考情景。古代私人日记中保存的气候信息,因其直观性强、分辨率高等特点而受到研究者的重视,成为重建历史气候时使用较多的一类代用数据。近年来,国内外学者利用日记资料,已经重建了多个地区历史上的温度、降水及物候变化,并已逐步由定性描述发展到定量研究。本文从代用指标、研究方法、研究成果3 个方面,对基于日记的历史气候重建研究成果进行综述,得到以下结论:① 重建指标选取上,国内外均较常使用天气情况日数和感应记录两类指标;此外,国内常用自然生长植物的物候期,而国外还使用风向、云量等指标;重建指标类型可分为定量、半定量、定性3 类,定量与定性指标使用较多,半定量指标使用相对较少。② 重建方法上,中外研究者多采用定性分析法和定量转换法等;资料校对方法上,西方学者多采用器测资料进行检验,国内则常选用方志与官私文件进行校订。③ 国外研究的重建内容主要涉及区域温度和降水;而国内除了温度和降水重建外,还研究了沙尘和梅雨等中国特有的天气气候现象。利用日记重建历史气候的优势在于,日记中保存的历史气候信息细节丰富、时间分辨率高,因而能够很好地保证重建结果的准确性。未来这一领域的研究还应继续改进代用指标的定量转换和重建结果的校验方法,并加强对不同区域、不同时段的同类研究结果的集成研究。

关键词: 代用指标, 古代日记, 气候变化, 重建

Abstract: Climate change is an important issue in science research, which deeply influences the human society. The historical climate reconstruction is one topic, which can provide reference scenario for analyzing current climate variation and simulating the future climate change. There were many climate proxies from natural recorders of climate variability such as tree rings, ice cores, fossil pollen, ocean sediments, corals and historical data. The dairies are important historical data for historical climate reconstructions, and there have been lots of studies both at home and abroad. The dairies included the private dairy, the private note, and letter with detailed date. There were weather records, phenological informations, and climatic events in the dairies. Although the dairies have some shortcomings such as time gaps and omissions, place limitations and the author's wrong understanding, they are advanced in daily weather records for extracting the details of climate change and weather process during a period and at the local level. In additional, the dairy-based studies can contribute to verifying the high resolution sequence of paleoclimate based on other climate proxies. In this paper, the current dairy-based studies were reviewed from three aspects including reconstructions proxy, research method and research subject. The dairy-based studies usually used the days of rain and snow, the plant phenological period, the life experience records, and etc. These proxies can be divided into three types including quantitative proxy, semi-quantitative proxy, and qualitative proxy. The quantitative proxy can be counted and compared to the modern meteorological data. The semi-quantitative proxy was the record which reflected the range or the rank of the weather condition or climate phenomenon. The qualitative proxy mainly was the feeling of the people which was hard to be quantified. With the process of the research development, the method of dairy-based studies turns from the simple qualitative analysis method to quantify analysis method, like regression equation method. The conclusions were as follows: (1) The frequently-used proxies were the number of days and experience records both in home and aboard studies; and the domestic researches also used natural plant phenological period; and the foreign researches used wind direction and cloud cover as well. The reconstruction proxies were classifies to quantitative proxy, semi-quantitative proxy, and qualitative proxy. Both the domestic and foreign scholars used the quantitative proxy and qualitative proxy more frequently than semi-quantitative proxy. (2) The foreign and domestic academics usually applied the qualitative analysis method and quantitative transformation method. In the data verification, the foreign researches often chose instrumental data, and the domestic researches often used the official files and chorography. (3) The subjects of foreign researches mainly were the local temperature and precipitation, while the domestic studies not only focused on those but also studied dusty weather and precipitation characteristics during sand storm and plum rain period.The advantages of using diaries to reconstruct historical climate include the abundant details in climatic record, high time resolution and high veracity of the reconstruction result. In the future, the ancient diary research should enhance the quantitative transformation method and the verification with other proxies. As the diary-based reconstructions increasing and the method improving, there would be long climate series on large area, which will contribute to the historical climate research.

Key words: ancient diary, climate change, proxy, reconstruction