地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 940-949.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.06.011

• 旅游与休闲地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

1990-2011 年山东省旅游节庆的时空变异特征及机理

栾福明1,2, 张小雷1, 杨兆萍1, 熊黑钢3, 韩芳1,2, 王昭国1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐830011;
    2. 中国科学院大学, 北京100049;
    3. 北京联合大学应用文理学院, 北京100083
  • 收稿日期:2012-10-01 修回日期:2012-12-01 出版日期:2013-06-25 发布日期:2013-06-25
  • 通讯作者: 张小雷(1963-),男,陕西华县人,研究员,博导,主要从事城市与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail:zhangxl@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:栾福明(1984-),男,山东胶南人,博士研究生,主要研究方向人地关系与区域发展。E-mail:luanfuming999@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAH48F00);中国科学院外国专家特聘研究员计划项目(2011T2Z42, 2010T2Z17);国家自然科学基金项目(41171165)。

Temporal-spatial variability of tourism festivals and its mechanism in Shandong Province during 1990-2011

LUAN Fuming1,2, ZHANG Xiaolei1, YANG Zhaoping1, XIONG Heigang3, HAN Fang1,2, WANG Zhaoguo1,2   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. College of Art and Science, Beijing Union University, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2012-10-01 Revised:2012-12-01 Online:2013-06-25 Published:2013-06-25

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摘要： 以山东省为研究区域, 运用半变异函数、克里格空间插值等地统计学分析方法, 分析了1990、1999、2005、2011 年4 个时间点上旅游节庆活动的时空分布规律、结构特征及变异性, 并建立了拟合模型。结果表明:① 旅游节庆数量空间不均衡显著, 总体上呈现出“东高西低”的“三级阶梯状”分布格局;② 空间结构特征明显, 正负相关并存, 并随滞后距离的增加, 正相关性削弱, 负相关性增强;③ 与1990 年相比, 2011 年基台值增加了20.61 倍, 变程值由115.5 km增至335 km, 结构方差比则由69%下降至26%, 随机性因素的影响减弱, 而结构性因素的作用增强;④ 所有方向的分维数值呈下降趋势, 其空间差异性增大, 且全方向和东—西方向的差异性最大, 其余方向相对均衡, 其发展空间格局的板块状异向性分布特征明显;⑤ 经济发展水平、旅游供给能力、交通可达性是引起山东省旅游节庆差异演化规律的3个主要因素。

关键词: 半变异函数, 空间差值, 旅游节庆, 山东省, 时空特征

Abstract: In this paper, by using geostatistical methods, such as semi-variance function and Kriging spatial interpolator method, we analyzed temporal-spatial distribution pattern, structural characteristics and variability of tourism festivals in Shandong Province in 1990, 1999, 2005 and 2011, and established suitable models. Based on quantitative analyses, we made the conclusions as follows: (1) Spatial distribution of the numbers of tourism festivals is significantly imbalanced, showing an overall "high in the east, low in the west" pattern with the shape of a three-step ladder. (2) There are clear spatial structural characteristics in terms of correlations of the events, with positive and negative correlations existing simultaneously. When the separation distance gets longer, the positive spatial correlation decreases, and in the meantime negative correlation increases. (3) Compared to 1990, the value of partial sill increased by 20.61 times in 2011; variable range increased from 115.5 km to 335 km; structural variance ratio decreased from 69% to 26%; the impact of random factors weakened, but the role of structural factors strengthened. (4) In terms of spatial fractal dimension, the values trended down and the spatial variations increased in all directions. The most significant variation was in the east-west direction; the rest of the directions were relatively balanced, showing a spatial development pattern with the characteristics of plate-like and anisotropic distribution. (5) Three main factors contribute to the evolvement of developmental variability of tourism festivals in Shandong Province: level of economic development, tourism supply capacity, and transportation accessibility.

Key words: Shandong Province, evolvement of spatial pattern, semi-variance function, temporal-spatial characteristics, tourism festival