1951-2010 年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.06.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以中国623 个测站1951-2010 年逐日气温观测资料为基础数据, 通过正交旋转因子分析对1951-1980、1961-1990、1971-2000、1981-2010 年4 个时间段的年、冬、夏半年气温变化特征进行分区, 并探讨分区结果的季节和年代际差异。结果表明:依据年、夏半年气温变化特征, 可将全国划分成8 个不同的区域, 且研究时段内年、夏半年气温变化的空间结构比较稳定;而依据冬半年气温变化特征, 可将全国划分为7 个变化区, 且冬半年气温每30 年分区结果存在着明显变化。另外, 通过对区域平均气温距平序列的变化趋势分析可以得出:1951-2010 年间, 中国各区域气温均呈上升趋势, 升温趋势最快的是东北区(0.30 ℃∕10a), 最慢的是华南区(0.13 ℃∕10a);各区域升温过程不同步, 东北区与滇藏高原区显著增暖趋势在1961-1990 年开始出现, 而其他区域则发生在1971-2000 年及1981-2010 年。

关键词: 分区, 气温变化, 正交旋转因子分析, 中国

Abstract: Based on daily meteorological dataset of 623 stations during 1951-2010 in China, using the orthogonal rotational factor analysis, we studied of regionalization of the trends of annual, summer semiannual, and winter semiannual temperature changes for the four 30-year time periods, 1951-1980, 1961-1990, 1961-2000, and 1971-2010. The differences among the four periods of the regionalization were analyzed. The results show that China can be divided into 8 regions based on the characteristics of both annual and summer semiannual temperature changes, and the boundaries of the regions were stable during 1951-2010; the country can be divided into 7 regions based on the characteristics of winter semiannual temperature changes, and the boundaries of the regions showed clear changes in every 30-year time period. The regionalization boundaries of winter semiannual temperature changes showed high level of consistency with those of annual temperature changes. So winter semiannual temperature changes can substitute annual temperature changes for historical climate reconstruction. In addition, the characteristics of temperature changes in the different regions of China were analyzed. The results indicated that the trend of temperature change was overall upward, with a remarkable rate of 0.30℃/10a in Northeast and a rate of 0.13℃/10a in South China. Temperature increases of different regions were not in the same pace. For example, a significant warming trend in Northeast and Yunnan-Tibet Plateau was in 1961-1990, while warming trends of other regions were in 1971-2000 and 1981-2010. The winter semiannual temperatures had more dramatic increases than summer semiannual temperatures.

Key words: China, orthogonal rotational factor analysis, regionalization, temperature changes

韩翠华, 郝志新, 郑景云. 1951-2010 年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(6): 887-896.

HAN Cuihua, HAO Zhixin, ZHENG Jingyun. Regionalization of temperature changes in China and characteristics of temperature in different regions during 1951-2010[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2013, 32(6): 887-896.

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