地理科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 880-886.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.06.004

• 全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

塔里木河干流径流量变化与太阳黑子活动的关系

奚秀梅1,2, 刘海隆3   

  1. 1. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安710062;
    2. 石河子大学理学院, 石河子832003;
    3. 石河子大学水利建筑工程学院, 石河子832003
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-01 修回日期:2013-04-01 出版日期:2013-06-25 发布日期:2013-06-25
  • 作者简介:奚秀梅(1972-),女,讲师,博士研究生,主要从事环境变化研究。E-mail:xxm199963@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB951004)。

Relationship between annual runoff of the mainstream of Tarim River and sunspots activity

XI Xiumei1,2, LIU Hailong3   

  1. 1. College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China;
    2. College of Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China;
    3. College ofWater Conservancy and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China
  • Received:2012-12-01 Revised:2013-04-01 Online:2013-06-25 Published:2013-06-25

摘要: 本文运用Morlet 小波分析方法, 分析了1957-2011 年塔里木河干流年径流量与太阳黑子相对数的关系。结果表明, 55 年间塔里木河干流年径流量和太阳黑子相对数都呈减小的趋势。塔里木河干流年径流量变化存在4 a、8 a、18 a、21 a 左右的主周期。在8~9 a 和18~21 a 尺度上年径流量序列与太阳黑子相对数序列具有相近的主周期。年径流量变化所表现的4 年主周期与太阳黑子活动关系不大;18~21 a 主周期特征应主要受太阳黑子活动的影响;8 a 主周期也与太阳黑子活动显著相关, 但由于受到人类活动的强烈干扰, 致使在20 世纪80 年代以后两者关系被扰乱。预测2012-2020 年间塔里木河干流将处于枯水期, 年径流量的平均值约为35×108~40×108 m3

关键词: 年径流量, 塔里木河干流, 太阳黑子相对数, 小波分析

Abstract: In this paper, we used Morlet wavelet transform method to analyze the relationship between annual runoff in the mainstream of the Tarim River and sunspots activity dring 1957-2011. Results indicated that both annual runoff of the mainstream of Tarim River and number of sunspots were decreased dring 1957-2011. There were main periods of 4 a, 8 a, 18 a, and 21 a in annual runoff. On the scales of 8~9 a and 18~21 a, the annual runoff and number of sunspots had similar primary cycles. Sunspots activity had almost no effect on the characteristics of annual runoff change of the 4 a cycle, but the characteristics of the 18~21 a cycle were mainly influenced by sunspots activity. The annual runoff change of 8 a primary cycle was once closely related to sunspots activity, but the correlation was disrupted after 1980 due to strong interferences of human activities. This paper forecasts that 2012-2020 may be a withered water period for annual runoff in the mainstream of Tarim Riverin, and the average annual runoff may be about 35×108~40×108 m3

Key words: annual runoff, mainstream of the Tarim River, sunspots number, wavelet analysis