地理科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 852-867.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.06.002

• 全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

面向灾害风险评估的台风风场模型研究综述

方伟华1,2,3, 林伟1,2   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学民政部—教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京100875;
    2. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京100875;
    3. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室, 北京100875
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-01 修回日期:2013-03-01 出版日期:2013-06-25 发布日期:2013-06-28
  • 作者简介:方伟华(1973-),男,湖北咸宁人,博士,副教授,主要从事自然灾害风险评估研究。E-mail:weihua.fang@bnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业科研专项(201305020);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK10B03)。

A review on typhoon wind field modeling for disaster risk assessment

FANG Weihua1,2,3, LIN Wei1,2   

  1. 1. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2012-12-01 Revised:2013-03-01 Online:2013-06-25 Published:2013-06-28

摘要: 台风历史观测风速等数据时空分布不均, 观测年份有限, 在进行定量概率风险评估时, 经常面临样本不足的限制。与数值风场不同, 参数化台风风场模型因计算时间短, 结合路径及强度的随机事件模拟, 在台风风险评估中发挥着不可替代的作用。本文按照台风风速模拟的基本流程, 首先, 总结了参数风场模型中最大风速、最大风速半径、Holland B系数等关键参数的确定方法, 分析了国内外梯度风场模拟、边界层风速垂直折减计算的研究进展;其次, 重点讨论了国内外关于地表粗糙度、地形、阵风因子以及海陆转换因素对于风速修正的理论及应用情况;再次, 对于风场模型在台风风险模型软件、台风次生风暴潮及海浪灾害的应用进行了概述;最后, 针对中国台风风场模拟研究的不足, 对加强多学科联合、数据观测、地表粗糙度变化及分布研究、地形影响修正研究以及重建历史风场等未来改进方向进行了展望。

关键词: 风场模型, 风速修正, 风险评估, 台风, 灾害

Abstract: Quantitative probabilistic typhoon risk model needs a large number of wind samples as input. However, in many areas, historical observation data is inadequate in both spatial and temporal dimensions, which may introduce great bias into risk assessment results. Combined with stochastic track model, parametric wind field model can provide a large number of wind speed samples to quantify wind risk, thanks to its simplicity in computation and solid scientific foundation. According to the general process of typhoon wind modeling, in this paper, firstly the estimation methods of maximum wind speed, radius of maximum wind speed and Holland B parameter for wind field model are reviewed, and the progress in gradient wind field model and boundary layer model is illustrated. Secondly, the theories and applications of wind speed adjustment for surface roughness, terrain, gusts and sea-land transition are analyzed. Thirdly, major software systems with wind field components are also summarized. Finally, it is suggested that the integration of meteorology, wind engineering, oceanic and disaster risk sciences be enhanced. Surface roughness estimation by remote sensing, and terrain adjustment are proposed as priority research areas for China in the future.

Key words: disaster, risk assessment, typhoon, wind field model, wind speed adjustment