地理科学进展

• 水文过程与环境变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

热带气旋降水模拟研究进展

李颖1,2, 方伟华1,2,3   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学民政部—教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875;
    2. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875;
    3. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-01 修回日期:2012-11-01 出版日期:2013-04-25 发布日期:2013-04-25
  • 通讯作者: 方伟华(1973-),男,湖北咸宁人,博士,副教授,主要从事自然灾害风险评估研究。E-mail:weihua.fang@bnu.edu.cn E-mail:weihua.fang@bnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:李颖(1986-),女,山东淄博人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为台风灾害风险评估。E-mail:ying.li@mail.bnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业科研专项(201305020);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK10B03)。

Review on modeling of tropical cyclone rainfall

LI Ying1,2, FANG Weihua1,2,3   

  1. 1. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2012-09-01 Revised:2012-11-01 Online:2013-04-25 Published:2013-04-25

摘要: 中国是遭受热带气旋灾害最为严重的国家之一,准确的降水模拟对于开展热带气旋灾害风险评估有重要意义。本文从热带气旋灾害风险评估的视角,将降水模拟分为基于极值理论的降水极值模拟、基于站点的降水时空模拟和基于热带气旋路径的降水事件模拟3大类;根据风险评估对降水模拟的需求,从模型构建、发展及其特点等方面对3类模型进行分析评述;进而提出面向风险评估的热带气旋降水模拟,应兼顾降水模拟的一般性和热带气旋暴雨模拟的特殊性,平衡处理降水模拟结果的准确性、统计量的可靠性和计算量问题。以极值理论对降水极值模拟为基础,充分发挥降水时空模拟在处理长时间降水序列中的优势,并加强热带气旋降水的理论研究,进一步完善热带气旋降水事件的模拟模型。

关键词: 风险评估, 降水模拟, 热带气旋, 灾害

Abstract: China is one of the countries severely suffering from tropical cyclone (TC) disaster. Accurate rainfall modeling is of great significance for TC disaster risk assessment. From the perspective of TC disaster risk assessment, the methods of rainfall modeling can be classified into three categories, such as extreme rainfall modeling based on extreme value theory, stochastic space-time rainfall modeling based on ground station data, and TC rainfall event modeling based on stochastic TC tracks. This paper analyzes the demand of rainfall modeling for TC disaster risk assessment, and then reviews the principles, procedures, improvements and features of the three types of models. It is concluded that TC rainfall modeling for disaster risk assessment needs to integrate both the common features in rainfall modeling and the special requirements for TC rainfall simulation, in order to achieve a good balance among accuracy of TC rainfall, reliability of statistical results and computational costs. TC rainfall modeling should be based upon extreme value theory for long-term catastrophe risk analysis, and stochastic models are ideal for site-specific rainfall time series simulation, while stochastic TC rainfall event simulation, as the most advanced method, still needs further study in the areas such as rainfall mechanism and spatial structure, etc.

Key words: disaster, rainfall modeling, risk assessment, tropical cyclone