HIMS模型参数的不确定性及其影响因素

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.04.005

地理科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 532-537.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.04.005

HIMS模型参数的不确定性及其影响因素

刘丽芳¹, 刘昌明^1,2, 王中根², 江燕³, 张永强⁴, 桑燕芳², 王虎⁵

1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875;
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101;
3. 中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085;
4. 澳大利亚联邦科工组织土地与水资源研究所,堪培拉2601,澳大利亚;
5. 中国农业机械化科学研究院,北京100083

收稿日期:2012-10-01 修回日期:2013-01-01 出版日期:2013-04-25 发布日期:2013-04-25
通讯作者: 王中根(1973-),男,研究员,主要从事水循环模拟和水资源管理方面研究。E-mail:wangzg@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:刘丽芳(1981-),女,博士研究生,主要研究方向为水文模拟。E-mail:liulifang198160@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41271048,40971023,50809004,41201036)。

Parameter uncertainty of HIMS model and its influence factor analysis

LIU Lifang¹, LIU Changming^1,2, WANG Zhonggen², JIANG Yan³, ZHANG Yongqiang⁴, SANG Yanfang², WANG Hu⁵

1. College ofWater Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. Key Laboratory ofWater Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, CAS, Beijing 100085, China;
4. CSIRO Land andWater, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;
5. Chinese Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Sciences, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2012-10-01 Revised:2013-01-01 Online:2013-04-25 Published:2013-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 模型参数的不确定性及影响因素分析对无资料流域水文预报具有重要意义。本文以澳大利亚3 个流域为例,采用GLUE方法分析HIMS模型参数的不确定性,在此基础上探讨流域物理属性对参数取值的影响。研究发现:① HIMS模型9个参数的不确定性都比较大,属于敏感参数;② 降雨量、森林覆盖度和表层土壤最大有效蓄水量大的流域,土壤蓄水容量W_sm取值大;土壤饱和导水率和森林覆盖度高的流域,产流系数R、r的取值较大;温度低、森林覆盖度小的流域,实际蒸散发系数ε取值大;易透水、森林覆盖度高的流域,马斯京根汇流系数C₂取值大。这些结论能为今后在无资料流域应用HIMS模型进行水文预报提供一定参考。

关键词: GLUE方法, HIMS模型, 参数不确定性分析, 流域物理属性

Abstract: Parameter uncertainty of hydrological model and its influence factor analysis have important significance in hydrological forecasting for ungauged basins. In this paper, the parameter uncertainty of HIMS model was examined by employing generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method based on the simulation results of daily rainfall runoff data from the three catchments in Australia, and the influence factors of HIMS model parameters were discussed. It was found that parameters of HIMS model were all sensitivity parameters. And then the parameters distribution of HIMS model and the physical attributions in different catchments were compared. The results showed that the value of soil moisture storage capacity (W_sm) in the catchment was related to the precipitation, forest coverage and available water capacity in lay 1. As the precipitation, forest coverage and available water capacity in lay 1 rising, the value of W_sm increased. The larger values of runoff generation coefficient (R) and (r) in the catchment were due to the large soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and high forest coverage. The value of actual evapotranspiration coefficient (ε) was large in the catchment with low temperature and forest coverage. The value of Muskingum model coefficient (C₂) was large when soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and forest coverage were high.

Key words: catchment physical attributions, GLUE, HIMS model, parameter uncertainty analysis

刘丽芳, 刘昌明, 王中根, 江燕, 张永强, 桑燕芳, 王虎. HIMS模型参数的不确定性及其影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(4): 532-537.

LIU Lifang, LIU Changming, WANG Zhonggen, JIANG Yan, ZHANG Yongqiang, SANG Yanfang, WANG Hu. Parameter uncertainty of HIMS model and its influence factor analysis[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2013, 32(4): 532-537.

参考文献

Beven K, Binley A. 1992. Future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes, 6(3): 279-298.
Beven K, Freer J. 2001. Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology, 249(1-4): 11-29.
Blasone R S, Vrugt J A, Madsen H, et al. 2008. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Advances in Water Resources, 31(4): 630-648.
Dai J N, Li Z J, Huang P N, et al. 2011. Uncertainty analysis of Xin'anjiang model parameters. Journal of Hohai University: Natural Sciences, 39(6): 618-622. [戴健男, 李致家, 黄鹏年, 等. 2011. 新安江模型参数不确定性分析.河海大学学报: 自然科学版, 39(6): 618-622.]
Goswami M, O'Conner K M, Bhattarai K P. 2007. Development of regionalization procedures using a multi-model approach for flow simulation in an ungauged catchment. Journal of Hydrology, 333(2-4): 517-531.
Huang G R, Xie H H. 2007. Uncertainty analyses of watershed hydrological model based on GLUE method. Journal of South China University of Technology: Natural Science Edition, 35(3): 137-142, 149. [黄国如, 解河海. 2007. 基于GLUE方法的流域水文模型的不确定性分析. 华南理工大学学报: 自然科学版, 35(3): 137-142, 149.]
Liu C M. 1978. Primary analysis of the effects of forests on the annual runoff in the Loess Plateau. [刘昌明. 1978. 黄土高原森林对年径流影响的初步分析. 地理学报, 33( 2): 112-126.]
Li D Y, Liu C M, Niu C W. 2004. Study on the PUBs issues in the source regions of the Yellow River//Xia J. Study on the complexity and uncertainty of water issues and its progress. Beijing, China: China Water Power Press: 132-141. [ 李丹颖, 刘昌明, 牛存稳. 2004. 黄河源区PUBs 问题研究//夏军. 水问题的复杂性与不确定性研究与进展. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社: 132-141.]
Liu C M, Wang Z G, Zheng H X, et al. 2008. Development of hydro-informatic modelling system and its application. Science in China Series E: Technological Sciences, 38 (3): 456-466. [刘昌明, 王中根, 郑红星, 等. 2008. HIMS 系统及其定制模型的开发与应用. 中国科学E辑: 技术科学, 38(3): 350-360.]
Liu S X, Xia J, Mo X G. 2005. Advances in Predictions in Ungauged Basins. China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House, 36(2): 9-12. [ 刘苏峡, 夏军, 莫兴国. 2005. 无资料流域水文预报(PUB 计划)研究进展. 水利水电技术, 36(2): 9-12.]
Liu C M, Zheng H X, Wang Z G, et al. 2010. Multi-scale integrated simulation of hydrological processes using HIMS with verified case studies. Journal of Beijing Normal University: Natural Science, 46(3): 268-272. [刘昌明, 郑红星, 王中根, 等. 2010. 基于HIMS 的水文过程多尺度综合模拟. 北京师范大学学报: 自然科学版, 46(3): 268-272.]
Montanari A. 2005. Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resources Research, 41:W08406.
Mo X G, Liu S X. 2004. The GLUE method and its application to uncertainty analyses of watershed hydrological model//Xia J. Study on the complexity and uncertainty of water issues and its progress. Beijing, China: China Water Power Press: 143-150. [莫兴国, 刘苏峡. 2004. GLUE 方法及其在水文不确定性分析中的应用//夏军. 水问题的复杂性与不确定性研究与进展. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社: 143-150.]
Rui X F. 2004. Hydrology principles. Beijing, China: China Water Power Press. [芮孝芳. 2004. 水文学原理. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社.]
Shu C, Liu S X, Mo X G, et al. 2008. Uncertainty analysis of Xin'anjiang model parameter. Geographical Research, 27 (2): 343-352. [舒畅, 刘苏峡, 莫兴国, 等. 2008. 新安江模型参数的不确定性分析. 地理研究, 27(2): 343-352.]
Sivapalan M, Takeuchi K, Franks S W, et al. 2003. IAHS decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48(6): 857-880.
Schoups G, Vrugt J A. 2010. A formal likelihood function for parameter and predictive inference of hydrologic models with correlated, heteroscedastic, and non-Gaussian errors. Water Resources Research, 46:W10531.
The Small Watershed Storm Flood Peak Study Group. 1978. Calculation of the storm flood peak in small watershed. Beijing, China: Science Press. [小流域暴雨径流研究组. 1978. 小流域暴雨洪峰流量计算. 北京: 科学出版社.]
Tan G, Xia J, Li X. 2004. Hydrological prediction in ungauged basins. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 26(2): 192-196. [谈戈, 夏军, 李新. 2004. 无资料地区水文预报研究的方法与出路. 冰川冻土, 26(2): 192-196.]
Wu M Y. 2012. Study on distributed hydrological model of the upstream of Heihe River based on HIMS[D]. Beijing, China: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. [吴梦莹. 2012. 基于HIMS 的黑河流域上游分布式水文模型研究[D]. 北京: 中国科学院大学.]
Wei X J, Xiong L H. 2008. Application of improved GLUE method to analyzing uncertainty of hydrological model. Express Water Resources and Hydropower Information, 29(6): 23-25. [卫晓婧, 熊立华. 2008. 改进的GLUE方法在水文模型不确定性研究中的应用. 水利水电快报, 29 (6): 23-25.]
Xiong L H, Guo S L. 2004. Study on the equifinality of Xin'anjiang model parameter//Xia J. Study on the complexity and uncertainty of water issues and its progress. Beijing, China: China Water Power Press: 151-155. [熊立华, 郭生练. 2004. 三水源新安江模型异参同效现象的研究//夏军. 水问题的复杂性与不确定性研究与进展. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社: 151-155.]

HIMS模型参数的不确定性及其影响因素

Parameter uncertainty of HIMS model and its influence factor analysis

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 1

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0