1961-2011年山东气候资源及气候生产力时空变化特征

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于山东省21个气象站1961-2011年的气象资料,利用线性趋势、IDW空间插值、Mann-Kendall检验、Fisher最优分割等方法分析了气温和降水的时空变化特征;在此基础上采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型对植被气候生产力的时空演变进行了研究,并探讨了气候生产力对气温和降水的敏感性。结果表明:近51年来山东省普遍增温,倾向率为0.359℃/10a,中部地区升温明显;年降水量在剧烈波动中略呈下降趋势,20世纪80年代降水量的变率较大,山东北部、东部、东南部降水量减少幅度较大。近51年来气候生产力存在较明显波动,总体呈增加趋势,但递增速度不显著,1981-1989年气候生产力最低,2003-2011年达到最高水平;气候生产力由北向南,由西向东逐渐增加,山东西南部气候生产力增加较多。“暖湿型”气候对作物气候生产力有利,气候变暖有利于气候生产力的提高,但降水量少是限制气候生产力的主要因素。

关键词: 气候生产力, 气候资源, 山东省, 时空变化

Abstract: Based on the meteorological data of 21 weather stations of Shandong Province during 1961-2011, the spatial and temporal changes of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by the methods of linear trend, IDW, Mann-Kendall, and Fisher optimal segmentation. Then, the climatic productivity was analyzed by Thornthwaite Memorial model, and the sensitivity of climatic productivity to temperature and precipitation was investigated. The results showed a general warming trend in the last 51 years in Shandong, with a tendency rate of 0.359℃/10a. The temperature increased distinctly in the central Shandong. The annual precipitation showed a downward trend with extreme fluctuations; the precipitation variability was high in the 80s of the 20th century. The precipitation decreased distinctly in north, south, and southeast. The climatic productivity exhibited obvious fluctuations with a slight increasing trend. The climatic productivity reached its minimum during 1981-1989, and reached its maximum during 2003-2011. The climatic productivity decreased gradually from south to north and from east to west, and the climatic productivity increased distinctly in southwest. The "warm-wet" climate is favorable to crop production and thus the climate warming is beneficial to the improvement of climatic productivity in Shandong Province. However, little rainfall is the main limiting factor of the climatic productivity. More attention needs to be focused on the utilization of water resources.

Key words: climate resources, climatic productivity, Shandong Province, temporal and spatial variation

韩玮, 韩永红, 杨沈斌. 1961-2011年山东气候资源及气候生产力时空变化特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(3): 425-434.

HAN Wei, HAN Yonghong, YANG Shenbin. Spatial-temporal change of climate resources and climatic productivity in Shandong Province during 1961-2011[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2013, 32(3): 425-434.

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