气候变化情景下青海湟水流域径流变化的HIMS模拟分析

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.01.006

地理科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 59-67.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.01.006

气候变化情景下青海湟水流域径流变化的HIMS模拟分析

张艳娇¹, 高小红¹, 李其江², 陈强², 杨军军¹

1. 青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院/青藏高原环境与资源教育部重点实验室, 西宁 810008;
2. 青海省水文水资源勘测局, 西宁 810001

收稿日期:2012-05-01 修回日期:2012-09-01 出版日期:2013-01-25 发布日期:2013-01-25
通讯作者: 高小红(1963-),女,陕西白水人,博士,教授,主要从事遥感与地理信息系统应用研究。E-mail: xiaohonggao226@gmail.com
作者简介:张艳娇(1987-),女,河北任丘人,硕士研究生,主要从事遥感与地理信息系统应用研究。E-mail: zhangyanjiao999@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(40861022);中国科学院“西部之光”项目 (科发人教字[2006]378号)。

Runoff simulation of climate change scenarios based on HIMS model in the Huangshui river basin

ZHANG Yanjiao¹, GAO Xiaohong¹, LI Qijiang², CHEN Qiang², YANG Junjun¹

1. Qinghai Normal University/Key Laboratory of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environment and Resources, Ministry of Education, Xining 810008, China;
2. Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China

Received:2012-05-01 Revised:2012-09-01 Online:2013-01-25 Published:2013-01-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于国产HIMS(Hydro-Informatic Modeling System)模型,以青海湟水流域为研究区域,利用1986-2000年33个雨量站和8个气象站的逐日降水和气温数据,对其径流变化进行模拟;选取流域内6个水文站同期的实测径流数据,进行参数率定及验证。结果表明:HIMS模型日、月率定及验证结果良好,在湟水流域具有良好的适用性。在此基础之上,分析了湟水流域1961-2010年降水及气温的变化趋势,并对不同气候变化情景下的水文响应(径流量)进行模拟分析。结果显示气候变化对湟水流域径流量变化趋势影响显著,随气温升高和降水量的减少,径流量呈明显的减少趋势,反之,呈增加趋势。

关键词: HIMS模型, 湟水流域, 径流模拟, 气候变化情景, 青海省

Abstract: It is important for rational water use and water management to study the change of runoff processes in response to climate change. Based on HIMS(Hydro-Informatic Modeling System) model, using daily precipitation data from 33 rainfall stations from 1986 to 2000, and daily maximum and minimum temperature measured at 8 meteorological stations, this paper presents a simulation of runoff processes in the Huangshui river basin in Qinghai province. Parameter sensitivity analysis and validation of the simulation are conducted using the recorded runoff data from six hydrological stations during the same time period. Results indicate that efficiency coefficient and correlation coefficient of the simulated daily data at five stations exceed 0.5, except Shiyazhuang station; the efficiency coefficient and correlation coefficient of the simulated monthly data at five stations exceed 0.9. Daily and monthly sensitivity analysis and validation generates good outcome as well, demonstrating that the HIMS model applies to the runoff processes in the Huangshui River basin very well, and can be used to simulate the scenarios of areal responses to climate change, which meets the requirements of water resources management. Based on this, the changes of precipitation and temperature in recent 50 years(from 1961 to 2010) in the Huangshui River basin are analyzed, and the hydrological responses(runoff) to 9 types of possible climate change scenarios are simulated and analyzed. The results suggest that climate change has significantly effects on the runoff of the Huangshui River basin. If temperature rises and precipitation decreases, then runoff shows a strong tendency to decrease; on the contrary, if changes of temperature and precipitation reverse, runoff shows a tendency to increase. In addition, in the Huangshui river basin, precipitation is the key climatic factor, and the effect of precipitation change on runoff processes is significantly greater than that of temperature change.

Key words: climate change scenario, HIMS model, Huangshui river basin, Qinghai province, runoff simulation

张艳娇, 高小红, 李其江, 陈强, 杨军军. 气候变化情景下青海湟水流域径流变化的HIMS模拟分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(1): 59-67.

ZHANG Yanjiao, GAO Xiaohong, LI Qijiang, CHEN Qiang, YANG Junjun. Runoff simulation of climate change scenarios based on HIMS model in the Huangshui river basin[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2013, 32(1): 59-67.

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气候变化情景下青海湟水流域径流变化的HIMS模拟分析

Runoff simulation of climate change scenarios based on HIMS model in the Huangshui river basin

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