地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (9): 1149-1156.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.09.005

• 水文与气象过程 • 上一篇    下一篇

1956-2010 年甬江流域降水变化特性分析

陈睿智1,2, 桑燕芳1, 王中根1, 李宗礼3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京100049;
    3. 水利部水利水电规划设计总院, 北京100120
  • 收稿日期:2012-03-01 修回日期:2012-06-01 出版日期:2012-09-25 发布日期:2012-09-25
  • 通讯作者: 王中根(1973-),男,博士,副研究员,主要从事流域水循环模拟与水资源管理研究。E-mail:wangzg@igsnrr.ac.an
  • 作者简介:陈睿智(1986-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水资源管理研究。E-mail:chenrz.10s@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41271048, 41201036);2011 年水利重大课题项目(水重大2011-8)。

Variability of Precipitation in the Yongjiang River Basin during 1956-2010

CHEN Ruizhi1,2, SANG Yanfang1, WANG Zhonggen1, LI Zongli3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory ofWater Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry ofWater Resources, Beijing 100120, China
  • Received:2012-03-01 Revised:2012-06-01 Online:2012-09-25 Published:2012-09-25

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摘要： 近几十年气候变化加剧了一些地区的水资源时空分布不均匀性, 使水灾害事件呈突发、频发、并发、重发趋势。本文选取中国东南沿海的甬江流域为研究对象, 基于近55 年日过程降雨资料(1956-2010 年), 采用集中度分析和Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势检验等统计学方法, 分析甬江流域降水的变化特性。结果显示, 甬江流域20 世纪80年代后, 年降水集中度呈现显著(置信水平95%)的下降趋势, 汛期降水量占年降水量比重减少, 其中5 月份降水量比重下降最为明显;而非汛期降水量占年降水量比重增加, 1 月份降水量比重增加最为明显;50~100 mm/d级别的暴雨总量稳定且有增加趋势。总体上, 甬江流域降水年内分布呈现坦化趋势, 不同量级暴雨变化趋势有利于洪水资源化, 因此结合合理的工程措施可以有效地增加该区域的水资源可利用量。

关键词: MK趋势检验, 集中度, 降水, 甬江流域

Abstract: Global climate change enhances the uneven distribution of water resources in many basins and regions, and it further causes the hydrological extreme events (e.g., floods, drought) occurring concurrently, and more unexpectedly and frequently. In this paper, the Yongjiang River Basin is chosen as the study area, and the daily precipitation data measured during the period 1956-2010 were analyzed by the precipitation concentration degree and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test methods, aiming to investigate the precipitation variability in this region. The results show the obvious inter-annual variations of precipitation were observed in the Yongjiang River Basin. After the 1980s, a significant downward trend of the PCD value of precipitation was detected by the MK test, which was mainly attributed to the decreasing proportion of the flood season precipitation in the annual precipitation, especially in May; while the proportion of precipitation in the nonflood season increases, especially in January. The storms with a rainfall of 50-100 mm/day shows an upward trend. In summary, an attenuation action of flood is detected in the Yongjiang River Basin, which is favorable for the water resources development and use in this region.

Key words: Mann-Kendall test, PCD, precipitation, Yongjiang River Basin