地理科学进展 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 577-583.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.05.005

• 土地利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

贵州省土地利用及其生态系统服务价值与灰色预测

李正1,2, 王军1, 白中科1,2, 郭义强1, 余莉3   

  1. 1. 国土资源部土地整治中心土地整治重点实验室, 北京100035;
    2. 中国地质大学(北京)土地科学技术学院, 北京100083;
    3. 北京地亿时代土地规划设计有限公司, 北京100089
  • 收稿日期:2012-01-01 修回日期:2012-03-01 出版日期:2012-05-25 发布日期:2012-05-25
  • 通讯作者: 王军(1970-),男,河南新乡人,博士,研究员,国土资源部“百人计划”获得者,主要研究方向为景观生态学、土地可持续利用与土地整理。E-mail:wangjun@lcrc.org.cn E-mail:wangjun@lcrc.org.cn
  • 作者简介:李正(1985-),男,江西萍乡人,硕士,主要研究方向为土地整理复垦、土地可持续利用。E-mail:lizheng19859011@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    “十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAB38B07)。

Land Use and Ecosystem Service Values and Their Grey Forecast in Guizhou Province

LI Zheng1,2, WANG Jun1, BAI Zhongke1,2, GUO Yiqiang1, YU Li3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China;
    2. School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China;
    3. Beijing DiYi Shidai Land Planning and Design Company Ltd., Beijing 100089, China
  • Received:2012-01-01 Revised:2012-03-01 Online:2012-05-25 Published:2012-05-25

摘要: 以贵州省1996-2008 年土地利用变更调查数据为基础, 采用生态系统服务价值评估模型、敏感性指数和灰色预测模型, 对土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值的变化进行了估算, 对区域土地利用构成和生态系统服务价值进行了灰色预测。结果表明:贵州省近13 年来, 耕地、牧草地和未利用土地面积均呈现减少的趋势, 而林地、园地、建设用地和水域面积呈增加趋势;贵州省2008 年的生态系统服务总价值比1996 年增加了59.08 亿元, 变化率为3.01%;贵州西北地区的生态系统服务总价值的变化率较贵州东南地区显著;敏感性分析表明采用的生态价值系数是合理的, 研究区内的生态系统服务价值缺乏弹性;利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对贵州省2015 年和2020 年的土地利用构成和生态系统服务价值进行预测, 未来10 年贵州呈现林地、建设用地持续增加、耕地持续减少的趋势;2015 和2020 年土地利用结构信息熵分别为1.4320 和1.4331, 表明土地利用结构逐渐趋于均衡, 2020 年区域生态资产增加到2119.03 亿元。

关键词: 贵州省, 灰色系统, 敏感性指数, 生态系统服务价值, 土地利用

Abstract: Based on the land use change data in Guizhou province from 1996 to 2008, and by the evaluation ofecosystem service values, coefficient of sensitivity and grey forecast model, this paper estimated the changes inland use and ecosystem service values, and predicted the land use structure and ecosystem services values. Theresults are shown as follows. (1) During 1996 and 2008 in Guizhou province, the land use structures showed thatforest land, garden land, construction land and water body increased significantly, while cultivated land, grasslandand unused land showed a decreasing trend. (2) The total ecosystem services values in the study area in2008 is 5.908 billions yuan more than those in 1996, an increase of 3.01%. (3) The change rate of ecosystem servicesvalue of the northwestern part is much larger than that in the southeastern part of the study area. 4) The coefficient sensitivity analysis showed that the ecological value coefficients are reasonable, and the ecosystem servicevalues lack flexibility in the study area. (5) The land use structures of Guizhou province in 2015 and 2020 were predicted by using the GM (1, 1) model. The trend of woodland and construction land would maintain acontinual increase while the cultivated land a continual decrease in the ten years to come. The total ecosystem services value in 2020 would reach 21.19×108 yuan. The information entropy values of land use structure were1.4320 and 1.4331, respectively, implying that land use structures tend to be more and more balanced.

Key words: coefficient sensitivity, ecosystem service values, grey system, Guizhou province, land use